The model missed the final outcome (萨姆特雷迪亚 win 0–3).
The model had projected 特拉维 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 大 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 否 ✖ 错误
- 1X2 特拉维 萨姆特雷迪亚 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ 错误
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 特拉维 | 35.6% | 44.2% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| 萨姆特雷迪亚 | 34.7% | 26.9% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 特拉维's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 萨姆特雷迪亚 win 0–3。
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on 特拉维. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned 特拉维; match finished 萨姆特雷迪亚
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on 特拉维 by 8.6 percentage points (44.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 特拉维 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · 萨姆特雷迪亚 34.7%
- xG · 特拉维 1.31 — 萨姆特雷迪亚 1.29
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 特拉维 2.01 · Draw 3.08 · 萨姆特雷迪亚 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · 特拉维 44.2% · Draw 28.9% · 萨姆特雷迪亚 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 特拉维 2.01 · Draw 3.08 · 萨姆特雷迪亚 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · 特拉维 44.2% · Draw 28.9% · 萨姆特雷迪亚 26.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 萨姆特雷迪亚 win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
格鲁吉亚足球甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 加雷吉 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 2 | 特拉维 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 3 | 舒图尔米 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 4 | 梅拉尼马尔特维利 | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 37 |
| 5 | 萨姆特雷迪亚 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 37 |
| 6 | 阿拉格维杜舍季 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 7 | 锡奥尼 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 8 | 奥迪希1919 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 9 | 科尔赫季波季 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | 戈里 | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 27 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 萨姆特雷迪亚 | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 37 |
| 2 | 加雷吉 | 27 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 50 |
| 3 | 锡奥尼 | 27 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 33 |
| 4 | 科尔赫季波季 | 27 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 28 |
| 5 | 梅拉尼马尔特维利 | 27 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 37 |
| 6 | 阿拉格维杜舍季 | 27 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | 舒图尔米 | 27 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | 特拉维 | 27 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 43 |
| 9 | 奥迪希1919 | 27 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | 戈里 | 27 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 27 |
