AI correctly predicted the 锡奥尼 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 大 2.5 (3 球) ✖ 错误
- 双方进球 BTTS 是 是 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 锡奥尼 锡奥尼 ✔ 正确
- 比分洞察（波胆） 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 锡奥尼 | 39.0% | 32.2% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 31.8% | -2.2 pp | Aligned |
| 特拉维 | 31.5% | 36.0% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates 锡奥尼's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，模型方向判断与赛果一致（锡奥尼 win 2–1）。
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on 锡奥尼.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
失误之处
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
市场启示
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 锡奥尼 more conservatively (32.3% vs model 39.0%, 6.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (锡奥尼 win 2–1).
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 锡奥尼 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · 特拉维 31.5%
- xG · 锡奥尼 1.38 — 特拉维 1.22
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 锡奥尼 2.76 · Draw 2.80 · 特拉维 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · 锡奥尼 32.2% · Draw 31.8% · 特拉维 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 锡奥尼 2.76 · Draw 2.80 · 特拉维 2.47
- Implied 1X2 · 锡奥尼 32.2% · Draw 31.8% · 特拉维 36.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 锡奥尼 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
格鲁吉亚足球甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 加雷吉 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 2 | 特拉维 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 3 | 舒图尔米 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 43 |
| 4 | 梅拉尼马尔特维利 | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 37 |
| 5 | 萨姆特雷迪亚 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 37 |
| 6 | 阿拉格维杜舍季 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 35 |
| 7 | 锡奥尼 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 8 | 奥迪希1919 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 9 | 科尔赫季波季 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | 戈里 | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 27 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 萨姆特雷迪亚 | 27 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 37 |
| 2 | 加雷吉 | 27 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 50 |
| 3 | 锡奥尼 | 27 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 33 |
| 4 | 科尔赫季波季 | 27 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 28 |
| 5 | 梅拉尼马尔特维利 | 27 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 37 |
| 6 | 阿拉格维杜舍季 | 27 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | 舒图尔米 | 27 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | 特拉维 | 27 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 43 |
| 9 | 奥迪希1919 | 27 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | 戈里 | 27 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 27 |
