The model missed the final outcome (弗赖堡女队 win 1–0).
The model had projected Draw at 36.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
追踪市场 vs 全场赛果
每行对比赛前模型倾向与全场赛果。
- 市场 预测 赛果 结果
- 大小球 2.5 小 2.5 小 2.5 (1 球) ✔ 正确
- 双方进球 BTTS 否 否 ✔ 正确
- 1X2 Draw 弗赖堡女队 ✖ 错误
- 比分洞察（波胆） 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-0 ✔ 正确
模型 vs 收盘市场
| 赛果 | 模型 | 收盘市场 | 差异 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 弗赖堡女队 | 29.6% | 38.2% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 36.3% | 25.3% | +11.1 pp | Model Edge |
| 柏林联合女队 | 34.0% | 36.5% | -2.5 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 36.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
全场结束后，赛果为 弗赖堡女队 win 1–0。
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
赛后洞察
有效之处
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.80, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
失误之处
- 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished 弗赖堡女队
市场启示
The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 11.1 percentage points (25.2% vs model 36.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
预测时间线
从预测生成到全场复盘的过程。
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 弗赖堡女队 29.7% · Draw 36.4% · 柏林联合女队 34.0%
- xG · 弗赖堡女队 0.86 — 柏林联合女队 0.94
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 弗赖堡女队 2.40 · Draw 3.63 · 柏林联合女队 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · 弗赖堡女队 38.2% · Draw 25.3% · 柏林联合女队 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 弗赖堡女队 2.40 · Draw 3.63 · 柏林联合女队 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · 弗赖堡女队 38.2% · Draw 25.3% · 柏林联合女队 36.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 弗赖堡女队 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
历史快照
开球时冻结 — 反映比赛开始前模型的原始输出。
赛前指标（历史参考）
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
验证报告
Immutable Snapshot模型绩效
本场预测计入：
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
复盘 FAQ
- 这次预测有多准确？
- 本页将方向性市场（1X2、大小 2.5、双方进球）与全场赛果对照评分。预测评级反映有多少追踪市场与实际结果一致。
- xG 吻合度衡量什么？
- xG 吻合度比较模型赛前预期进球画像与实际比分 — 不等于每个市场都命中。方向复盘表现好可以与中等 xG 吻合度并存。
- 为什么没有预测到精确比分？
- 即使模型正确读取比赛画像，精确比分仍是低概率尾部结果。我们展示 Top 比分区间供参考；未中精确比分并不否定方向复盘。
- 这会更新 AI 战绩吗？
- 每场完赛比赛都会记入验证流水线。汇总命中率与 CLV 研究单独发布 — 本页是逐场审计记录。
预测仅供参考，请理性投注、量力而行。历史表现不代表未来结果。
探索更多预测内容
德国女子足球甲级联赛 — 积分榜
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 胜 | 平 | 负 | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 拜仁慕尼黑女足 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | 法兰克福女足 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | 沃尔夫斯堡女足 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | 云达不莱梅女队 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | 科隆女足 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | 勒沃库森女足 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | 斯图加特 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | 弗赖堡女队 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | 汉堡女足 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | RB莱比锡女队 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | 霍芬海姆女足 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | 柏林联合女队 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | 纽伦堡 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | 美因茨05 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | 进球 | 失球 | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 拜仁慕尼黑女足 | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | 沃尔夫斯堡女足 | 5 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | 法兰克福女足 | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | 科隆女足 | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | 勒沃库森女足 | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | 云达不莱梅女队 | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | 汉堡女足 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 5 |
| 8 | 斯图加特 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | 纽伦堡 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 2 |
| 10 | 弗赖堡女队 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | 霍芬海姆女足 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | RB莱比锡女队 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | 柏林联合女队 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | 美因茨05 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 0 |
| # | 球队 | 场次 | xG | xGC | +/- | 积分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 拜仁慕尼黑女足 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | +2.9 | 15 |
| 2 | 柏林联合女队 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 3 |
| 3 | 美因茨05 | 5 | 0.2 | 2.7 | -2.5 | 0 |
| 4 | 法兰克福女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 5 | 沃尔夫斯堡女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 6 | 云达不莱梅女队 | 5 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 7 | 科隆女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 8 | 勒沃库森女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 9 | 斯图加特 | 5 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 10 | 弗赖堡女队 | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 11 | 汉堡女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 12 | RB莱比锡女队 | 5 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 13 | 霍芬海姆女足 | 5 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 14 | 纽伦堡 | 5 | — | — | — | 2 |
