**Match Analysis: Safa Baku vs Zaqatala** This match pits the league leaders Safa Baku against fifth-placed Zaqatala. Safa Baku has been dominant this season, remaining unbeaten in 9 games, with a strong home form (3-2-0) and an impressive 23 goals scored. Zaqatala, despite being 5th, has shown resilience, especially away from home with a 3-0-1 record. The recent H2H heavily favors Safa Baku, who defeated Zaqatala 4-0 in their last encounter. While Safa Baku is the clear favorite, Zaqatala's solid defense on the road could pose a challenge. Predicted score: 2-0 to Safa Baku, with a win probability of 65% for the home team. ### Current Form & League Position | Team | League Position | Points | W-D-L | Goals For/Against | Home/Away Record | Last 5 Form | |------------|----------------|--------|--------|-------------------|------------------|-------------| | Safa Baku | 1 | 23 | 7-2-0 | 23/7 | 3-2-0 | WDWDW | | Zaqatala | 5 | 16 | 5-1-3 | 12/10 | 3-0-1 | WWWLL | Safa Baku boasts the best offense and defense in the league, with a +16 goal difference. Meanwhile, Zaqatala, though ranked 5th, has been inconsistent, losing their last two games after a strong run. ### Head-to-Head Record (H2H) | Total H2H | Safa Baku Wins | Zaqatala Wins | Draws | Avg Goals/Match | |-----------|----------------|---------------|-------|----------------| | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | In their only previous encounter, Safa Baku dominated with a 4-0 victory. ### Expert Predictions & Odds | Source | Predicted Score | Win-Draw-Loss Probability | Key Reasons | |----------|----------------|---------------------------|------------------------------------------| | Source1 | 2-0 | 65%-20%-15% | Strong Safa Baku form, H2H dominance | | Source2 | 3-1 | 60%-25%-15% | Safa Baku's home advantage, scoring power| ### My Estimated Odds (Average Mainstream, Based on Current Data) - **Win-Draw-Loss**: Safa Baku Win **1.54** (65%), Draw **5.00** (20%), Zaqatala Win **6.67** (15%) - **Total Goals**: Over 2.5 **1.85**, Under 2.5 **2.10** - **Both Teams to Score**: Yes **2.75**, No **1.40** - **Asian Handicap**: Safa Baku -1.5 **2.00**, Zaqatala +1.5 **1.80** ### Injuries & Suspensions - **Safa Baku**: No major injuries or suspensions reported. - **Zaqatala**: No major injuries or suspensions reported. ### Why Safa Baku Will Win? 1. **H2H Dominance**: A recent 4-0 victory against Zaqatala highlights their superiority. 2. **League Leadership**: Unbeaten in the league, showcasing consistency. 3. **Home Advantage**: Strong home record (3-2-0) with only 4 goals conceded. 4. **Offensive Power**: Best attack with 23 goals scored in 9 matches. ### Betting Recommendations | Bet Type | Recommendation | Odds (My Estimate) | Reasons & Expected Value | |------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|--------------------------------------| | Full-Time Result | Safa Baku Win | 1.54 | Strong form, H2H dominance, home edge | | Total Goals | Under 2.5 Goals | 2.10 | Zaqatala's strong away defense | | Both Teams to Score | No | 1.40 | Safa Baku's defensive solidity | | Asian Handicap | Safa Baku -1.5 | 2.00 | Likely dominant victory | **Top Pick**: Safa Baku to Win @ 1.54 (Safe bet with high probability of success). **Value Bet**: Safa Baku -1.5 @ 2.00 (Higher risk, good potential return). **Risk Warning**: While Safa Baku is the favorite, Zaqatala has been solid defensively, particularly away. Always bet responsibly and avoid overexposure on a single market.