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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Bari U19 Bari U19 ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.05
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bari U19 win · Bari U19 2–1 Ascoli U19
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Bari U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bari U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bari U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0866,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4384,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Bari U19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.05,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 11.3,
"prob_edge": -13.6,
"value_pct": -27.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bari U19 or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bari U19 or Ascoli U19",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ascoli U19",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bari U19 or Ascoli U19",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bari U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 4.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 6.6,
"implied_prob": 27.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ascoli U19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.2,
"draw": 24.96,
"home": 43.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:03:30",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 12:34:19",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bari U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.84,
"gap_pp": -8.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.96,
"gap_pp": 4.68,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.2,
"gap_pp": 3.98,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.18
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.95,
"gap_pp": -11.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.05,
"gap_pp": 11.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.96,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.88,
"early": 2.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.7,
"ev": -0.055,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"p_final": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1862,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3808,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"p_final": 0.3927,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0875,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1102,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1988,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.9,
"text": "-19.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1102,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10099.18,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1709,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0529,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.3,
"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Bari U19",
"sort_key": 1786.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.67,
"hero_label": "Bari U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"market_team": "Bari U19",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Bari U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bari U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bari U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bari U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.67,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Bari U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bari U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bari U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bari U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bari U19 1.30 xG vs Ascoli U19 1.30 \u2192 Bari U19 35.2%",
"Market: Bari U19 ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Bari U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bari U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.67,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Bari U19",
"market_prob": 43.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.69,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Ascoli U19",
"market_prob": 31.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.38,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bari U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.84,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bari U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bari U19\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bari U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bari U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bari U19 1.30 xG vs Ascoli U19 1.30 \u2192 Bari U19 35.2%",
"Market: Bari U19 ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Bari U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Bari U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.67,
"hero_label": "Bari U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Bari U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Bari U19 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Bari U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Bari U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Bari U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bari U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.67,
"edge_pp": -8.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bari U19",
"market_prob_pct": 43.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.69,
"edge_pp": 4.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.97,
"edge_pp": 3.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ascoli U19",
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Bari U19 relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bari U19 (43.8%).",
"Bari U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Bari U19",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Bari U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ascoli-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ascoli U19",
"away_team_id": 15654,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15654.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ascoli U19",
"away_team_public_id": "30hYFjVER8EVlT",
"away_team_slug": "ascoli-u19",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623549,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Bari U19",
"home_team_id": 22403,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22403.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bari U19",
"home_team_public_id": "2yKeRO7a1r0PSR",
"home_team_slug": "bari-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bari-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Primavera 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Primavera 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 13:00:00",
"public_id": "03mkDlBpVs81vE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4232,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2496,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3288
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2789,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0131,
"ev": -0.0543,
"implied_prob": 0.2496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2496,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2627
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3916,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1709,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.312,
"draw": 0.2496,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4045
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": 0.0131,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.0672,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.136,
"ev": -0.2789,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.16,
"alpha_yes": 0.22,
"best_no_odd": 2.44,
"best_yes_odd": 1.47,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0738,
"edge_yes": -0.0738,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1102,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0615,
"ev_yes": -0.1988,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1138,
"implied_no": 0.3812,
"implied_yes": 0.6188,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.3927,
"p_final_yes": 0.6029,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2045,
"alpha_under": 0.1487,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.29,
"edge_over": -0.112,
"edge_under": 0.112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0397,
"implied_over": 0.594,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5979,
"implied_under": 0.406,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4021,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4193
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5742,
"p_final_under": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bari U19 at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bari U19 as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bari U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bari U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0339,
"ev": -0.1709,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bari U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.3808,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.3808,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3927
},
"p_final": 0.3927,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0615,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.6192,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6029
}
},
"edge": 0.0738,
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4021,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2045,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.5979,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5742
},
"p_final": 0.4193,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0397,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1487,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0397,
"implied_prob": 0.4021,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4193
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.112,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.406,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623549,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ascoli U19",
"home": "Bari U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.406,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1709,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2788,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623549,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:03:31.709900+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Bari U19 & Ascoli U19!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primavera 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cremonese U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 1 | Bari U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Padova U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Perugia U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Vicenza U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Palermo U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Renate U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Avellino U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Sampdoria U19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Catanzaro U19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Modena U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Latina U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Venezia U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Benevento U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Brescia U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Virtus Entella U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pisa U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Cittadella U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Pescara U19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Mantova U19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Spezia U19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Sudtirol U19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lecco U19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Reggiana U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Udinese U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cremonese U19 | 2 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bari U19 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Perugia U19 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Palermo U19 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Modena U19 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Venezia U19 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Cittadella U19 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Padova U19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 9 | Avellino U19 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Catanzaro U19 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Brescia U19 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Pisa U19 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Vicenza U19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 14 | Renate U19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Latina U19 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Benevento U19 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Monopoli U19 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 | Virtus Entella U19 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Pescara U19 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Sampdoria U19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 | Spezia U19 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Napoli U19 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ascoli U19 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Frosinone U19 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 25 | Udinese U19 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 26 | Reggiana U19 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 27 | Cosenza U19 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 28 | Salernitana U19 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| 29 | Mantova U19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 30 | Sudtirol U19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | Lecco U19 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
