The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).
The model had projected Modena U19 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (8 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Modena U19 Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena U19 | 37.5% | 47.0% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Sampdoria U19 | 32.9% | 28.1% | +4.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Modena U19's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 4–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Modena U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Modena U19 by 9.5 percentage points (47.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Modena U19 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sampdoria U19 32.9%
- xG · Modena U19 1.35 — Sampdoria U19 1.25
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Modena U19 1.91 · Draw 3.60 · Sampdoria U19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Modena U19 47.0% · Draw 24.9% · Sampdoria U19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Modena U19 1.91 · Draw 3.60 · Sampdoria U19 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Modena U19 47.0% · Draw 24.9% · Sampdoria U19 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Modena U19 4–4 Sampdoria U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "756859ec4c04a85f69c7f338db08637e583278d6626b37784c2ffd0346f57748",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3285,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.04,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.66,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"home_win_prob": 0.3754,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sampdoria U19",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sampdoria U19"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": -0.0944,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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}
],
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"value_pct": -28.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 71.3,
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"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.35,
"scores": [
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"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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{
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},
{
"away": 2,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Modena U19 or Draw",
"prob": 67.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Modena U19 or Sampdoria U19",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sampdoria U19",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Modena U19 or Sampdoria U19",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Modena U19"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 24.94,
"home": 47.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:03:40",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 12:34:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Modena U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": -9.44,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.94,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
"closing": 3.2,
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{
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{
"closing": 2.35,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
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"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
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{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"edge": 0.017,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
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"over": {
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"ev": -0.1184,
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"p_final": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -24.3,
"text": "-24.3%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
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},
"p_final": 0.3943,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.8,
"text": "+8.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1879,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.8,
"text": "-18.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0875,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10078.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1951,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0557,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.6,
"text": "-5.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Modena U19",
"sort_key": 1786.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "Modena U19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"market_team": "Modena U19",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Modena U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena U19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena U19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.47,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Modena U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena U19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena U19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Modena U19 1.35 xG vs Sampdoria U19 1.25 \u2192 Modena U19 37.5%",
"Market: Modena U19 ~47.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Modena U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Modena U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Modena U19",
"market_prob": 47.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Sampdoria U19",
"market_prob": 28.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Modena U19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.01,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Modena U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Modena U19\u0027s win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Modena U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Modena U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Modena U19 1.35 xG vs Sampdoria U19 1.25 \u2192 Modena U19 37.5%",
"Market: Modena U19 ~47.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Modena U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Modena U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "Modena U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Modena U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena U19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Modena U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena U19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Modena U19 above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Modena U19 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (3/3) supports the current market view on Modena U19."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Modena U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Modena U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.47,
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Modena U19",
"market_prob_pct": 47.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.67,
"edge_pp": 4.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.79,
"edge_pp": 4.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sampdoria U19",
"market_prob_pct": 28.06,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Modena U19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Modena U19 (47.0%).",
"Modena U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.91,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Modena U19",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Modena U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sampdoria-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sampdoria U19",
"away_team_id": 15680,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15680.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sampdoria U19",
"away_team_public_id": "4zhhbonmofUvWu",
"away_team_slug": "sampdoria-u19",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623572,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Modena U19",
"home_team_id": 24357,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24357.webp",
"home_team_name": "Modena U19",
"home_team_public_id": "4BJWaHGjOIazGk",
"home_team_slug": "modena-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "modena-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Primavera 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Primavera 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "1EsWsazSySOTlO",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2783,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2806,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.294
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2792,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.2494,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2623
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.1951,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2806,
"draw": 0.2494,
"home": 0.4701
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4214
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": 0.0643,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.1479,
"ev": -0.2825,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1131,
"alpha_yes": 0.1555,
"best_no_odd": 2.39,
"best_yes_odd": 1.49,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0685,
"edge_yes": -0.0685,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0875,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0676,
"ev_yes": -0.1879,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1018,
"implied_no": 0.3865,
"implied_yes": 0.6135,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3943,
"p_final_yes": 0.6028,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2053,
"alpha_under": 0.1493,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.54,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": -0.1151,
"edge_under": 0.1151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1184,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"implied_over": 0.5971,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5958,
"implied_under": 0.4029,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4042,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5724,
"p_final_under": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Modena U19 at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Modena U19 as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Modena U19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Modena U19).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0486,
"ev": -0.1951,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Modena U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"market_prob": 0.3865,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1131,
"best_odd": 2.365,
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0676,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3943
},
"p_final": 0.3943,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0676,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1555,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1018,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6028
}
},
"edge": 0.0685,
"ev": 0.0875,
"implied_prob": 0.3865,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4042,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1184,
"implied_prob": 0.5958,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5724
},
"p_final": 0.4212,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4042,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4212
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1151,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4029,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623572,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sampdoria U19",
"home": "Modena U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4029,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1951,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5235602094240838,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623572,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:03:42.197826+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
Primavera 2 — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena U19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina U19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
