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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (7 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Tigres UANL Nữ América Femenil ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.64
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
América Femenil win · América Femenil 5–2 Tigres UANL Nữ
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a8fe1d374f3bf45e0bc428892486ced1cc1fee9263fbe55d4819d2e5c4529ba1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"away_win_prob": 0.3706,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2963,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Am\u00e9rica Femenil or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2015,
"edge_gap": 0.0371,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.169,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.1,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.92,
"market_odds": 5.49,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 18.8,
"value_pct": 103.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 73.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 71.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil or Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil or Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 5.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 103.7,
"implied_prob": 18.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 5.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 16.9,
"draw": 26.51,
"home": 56.58
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 23:00:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 22:30:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.58,
"gap_pp": -23.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.35
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.51,
"gap_pp": 3.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.9,
"gap_pp": 20.15,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.59,
"gap_pp": -18.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.41,
"gap_pp": 18.39,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.58,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.51,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.49,
"early": 5.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.59,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.79,
"early": 2.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.41,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1294,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.745,
"edge": 0.0243,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.3305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1779,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.138,
"implied_prob": 0.6695,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6362
},
"p_final": 0.3547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4219,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0262,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1294,
"best_odd": 2.745,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3547
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.5,
"text": "-32.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.5022,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 50.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.5022,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10601.98,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3625,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"p_final": 0.3768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1443,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0523,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6375,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6178
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2285,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.9,
"text": "+22.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2285,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10205.65,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0823,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.2,
"text": "+8.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0823,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.2,
"text": "+8.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"sort_key": 10074.07,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"alert_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.27,
"hero_label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"market_prob_pct": 16.9,
"market_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5022,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010342,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres UANL N\u1eef at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres UANL N\u1eef as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +50.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +50.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +50.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+50.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0823,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 50,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.27,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"steam_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5022,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010342,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres UANL N\u1eef at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres UANL N\u1eef as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +50.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +50.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +50.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+50.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0823,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Am\u00e9rica Femenil 1.26 xG vs Tigres UANL N\u1eef 1.34 \u2192 Tigres UANL N\u1eef 37.1%",
"Market: Am\u00e9rica Femenil ~16.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Am\u00e9rica Femenil \u2193 -4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef, but sharp money moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.27,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"market_prob": 56.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.12,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.16,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 16.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.79,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.79,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.28,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.28,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"market_prob_pct": 56.58,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Am\u00e9rica Femenil\u0027s win probability at 56.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 23.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 16.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.2,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 50,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Am\u00e9rica Femenil 1.26 xG vs Tigres UANL N\u1eef 1.34 \u2192 Tigres UANL N\u1eef 37.1%",
"Market: Am\u00e9rica Femenil ~16.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Am\u00e9rica Femenil \u2193 -4.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef, but sharp money moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.27,
"hero_label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil odds shortened \u2193 -4.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Am\u00e9rica Femenil higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.27,
"edge_pp": -23.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"market_prob_pct": 56.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.12,
"edge_pp": 3.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.51,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.16,
"edge_pp": 20.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 16.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Am\u00e9rica Femenil (16.9%).",
"Am\u00e9rica Femenil has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.3%, 3/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tigres UANL N\u1eef, Market \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Femenil, Recent sharp money \u2192 Am\u00e9rica Femenil.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.98,
"closing_odds": 1.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.98,
"entry_odds": 1.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.55,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 18h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Am\u00e9rica Femenil (swing 1.77 \u2192 1.53 \u2192 1.55) \u2014 net 4.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.64",
"1.59",
"1.55"
],
"display": "1.77 \u2192 1.53 \u2192 1.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 18h 47m",
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.77"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.62,
1.64,
1.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,4.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.62"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.64"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.55,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"open_odds": 1.62,
"summary": "Market moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 1.55,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"open_odds": 1.62,
"pick_team": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tigres-uanl-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 14884,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14884.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "3yKjlCBPjWZd7I",
"away_team_slug": "tigres-uanl-w",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1603360,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"home_team_id": 14868,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14868.webp",
"home_team_name": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil",
"home_team_public_id": "0u04b8tCdXdZUI",
"home_team_slug": "america-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "america-w",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_id": 673,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/673.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_public_id": "34EclHhIs9gBvN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 23:00:00",
"public_id": "4u94dLr2jAr2ut",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Mexico City",
"venue_name": "Estadio Banorte"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 5.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.169,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.1971
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0411,
"implied_prob": 0.2651,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.169,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.274
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3909,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0908,
"ev": -0.221,
"implied_prob": 0.5658,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.169,
"draw": 0.2651,
"home": 0.5658
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.475
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.49,
"edge": 0.1884,
"ev": 1.0342,
"implied_prob": 0.1821,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0103,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.2763,
"ev": -0.4531,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.155,
"alpha_yes": 0.2132,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0928,
"edge_yes": -0.0928,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2285,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0523,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1166,
"implied_no": 0.3622,
"implied_yes": 0.6378,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0523,
"implied_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6375,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6178
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3768,
"p_final_yes": 0.6178,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1779,
"alpha_under": 0.1294,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 2.9,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.355,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.745,
"edge_over": -0.1879,
"edge_under": 0.1879,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.138,
"ev_under": 0.5022,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0262,
"implied_over": 0.6699,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6695,
"implied_under": 0.3301,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3305,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1779,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.138,
"implied_prob": 0.6695,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6362
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1294,
"best_odd": 2.745,
"edge": 0.0243,
"ev": -0.0262,
"implied_prob": 0.3305,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3547
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6362,
"p_final_under": 0.3547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5022,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0342,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5022,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5022,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010342,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 14,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Tigres UANL N\u1eef at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Tigres UANL N\u1eef as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +50.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +50.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +50.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "50 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "14 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+50.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Am\u00e9rica Femenil, but the model still strongly favours Tigres UANL N\u1eef.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 50,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0823,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0823,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.3625,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0523,
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},
"p_final": 0.3768,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0523,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6375,
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}
},
"edge": 0.0928,
"ev": 0.2285,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3622,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.745,
"edge": 0.0243,
"market_prob": 0.3305,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.138,
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},
"p_final": 0.3547,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0262,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1603360,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5022,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tigres UANL N\u1eef",
"home": "Am\u00e9rica Femenil"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.182098,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5022,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0823,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.2%",
"consensus_odds": 5.49,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.169,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.18214936247723132,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+103.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603360,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T23:00:04.731027+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho América Femenil & Tigres UANL Nữ!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Liga MX Femenil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey Nữ | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | América Femenil | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL Nữ | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Juárez Nữ | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Nữ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlético San Luis Nữ | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Toluca Nữ | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM Nữ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | León Nữ | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas Nữ | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna Femenil | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul Nữ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca Nữ | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlante Nữ | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Querétaro Nữ | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Tijuana Nữ | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla Nữ | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Necaxa Nữ | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América Femenil | 8 | 37 | 7 | +30 | 22 |
| 2 | Monterrey Nữ | 9 | 35 | 10 | +25 | 24 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL Nữ | 9 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 22 |
| 4 | Atlético San Luis Nữ | 9 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Nữ | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 | Toluca Nữ | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM Nữ | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | León Nữ | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Juárez Nữ | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 10 | Pachuca Nữ | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla Nữ | 9 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 3 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna Femenil | 9 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Tijuana Nữ | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Nữ | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas Nữ | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Querétaro Nữ | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Atlante Nữ | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Necaxa Nữ | 8 | 3 | 32 | -29 | 0 |
