AI correctly predicted the Guadalajara Nữ win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Guadalajara Nữ Guadalajara Nữ ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Nữ | 39.9% | 41.8% | -1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.9% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Juárez Nữ | 30.6% | 27.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Sau toàn thời gian, độ nghiêng định hướng của mô hình khớp với kết quả (Guadalajara Nữ win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Guadalajara Nữ win 1–0).
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guadalajara Nữ 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Juárez Nữ 30.6%
- xG · Guadalajara Nữ 1.40 — Juárez Nữ 1.20
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara Nữ 2.22 · Draw 3.01 · Juárez Nữ 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara Nữ 41.8% · Draw 30.9% · Juárez Nữ 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara Nữ 2.22 · Draw 3.01 · Juárez Nữ 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara Nữ 41.8% · Draw 30.9% · Juárez Nữ 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guadalajara Nữ win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Validated
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.4
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Guadalajara Nữ win · Guadalajara Nữ 1–0 Juárez Nữ
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
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"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara N\u1eef at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara N\u1eef as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 90,
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.27,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara N\u1eef at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara N\u1eef as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guadalajara N\u1eef 1.40 xG vs Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef 1.20 \u2192 Guadalajara N\u1eef 39.9%",
"Market: Guadalajara N\u1eef ~41.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guadalajara N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.89,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 41.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.37,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"market_prob": 27.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.1,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.1,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.06,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 27.31,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 90,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Guadalajara N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guadalajara N\u1eef 1.40 xG vs Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef 1.20 \u2192 Guadalajara N\u1eef 39.9%",
"Market: Guadalajara N\u1eef ~41.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Guadalajara N\u1eef with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.27,
"hero_label": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef (\u2191 +8.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.89,
"edge_pp": -1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 41.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.37,
"edge_pp": -1.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.27,
"edge_pp": 3.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"market_prob_pct": 27.31,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guadalajara N\u1eef (41.8%).",
"Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 8/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Guadalajara N\u1eef \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.41,
"closing_odds": 3.4,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.41,
"entry_odds": 3.4,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.8
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef (8.3%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.40",
"3.20",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.40 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h",
"pick_team": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.4,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/8 sportsbooks on Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "juarez-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"away_team_id": 14869,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14869.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"away_team_public_id": "0cEArm8RBn5nWe",
"away_team_slug": "juarez-w",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1603388,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"home_team_id": 14876,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14876.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"home_team_public_id": "4fU2Pi60ZqmnOw",
"home_team_slug": "guadalajara-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guadalajara-w",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_id": 673,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/673.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_public_id": "34EclHhIs9gBvN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 23:00:00",
"public_id": "3iTpEuH8HyWgB5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Zapopan",
"venue_name": "Estadio Akron"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2854,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0399,
"implied_prob": 0.2731,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2731,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4183
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2824
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2938,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.004,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3085,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2731,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4183
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.3045
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4374,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2731,
"draw": 0.3085,
"home": 0.4183
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4102
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": 0.0389,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": -0.0375,
"ev": -0.1128,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0508,
"ev": -0.1127,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2077,
"alpha_yes": 0.2077,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0506,
"edge_yes": 0.0506,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1271,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1044,
"ev_yes": 0.0371,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0655,
"implied_no": 0.5076,
"implied_yes": 0.4924,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4976
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5024
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4976,
"p_final_yes": 0.5024,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2074,
"alpha_under": 0.2281,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.051,
"edge_under": -0.051,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0845,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0616,
"ev_under": -0.109,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1038,
"implied_over": 0.431,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4297,
"implied_under": 0.569,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5703,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4406,
"p_final_under": 0.5584,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0845,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0845,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 94,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Guadalajara N\u1eef at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Guadalajara N\u1eef as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Guadalajara N\u1eef",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "94 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Guadalajara N\u1eef).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 90,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0894,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0894,
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Guadalajara N\u1eef"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2077,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"market_prob": 0.4918,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5082,
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"p_final": 0.4976
},
"p_final": 0.5024,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0655,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
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},
"edge": 0.0506,
"ev": 0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.4924,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"over": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"under": {
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}
},
"match_id": 1603388,
"match_regime": {
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"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0845,
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"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ju\u00e1rez N\u1eef",
"home": "Guadalajara N\u1eef"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0845,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
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"consensus_ev_display": "-8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4183,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603388,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T22:59:28.166640+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
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Đăng ký ngay
Liga MX Femenil — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey Nữ | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | América Femenil | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL Nữ | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 4 | Juárez Nữ | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Toluca Nữ | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Nữ | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis Nữ | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna Femenil | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM Nữ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | León Nữ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Atlas Nữ | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul Nữ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca Nữ | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlante Nữ | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Querétaro Nữ | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Tijuana Nữ | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla Nữ | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 18 | Necaxa Nữ | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América Femenil | 10 | 45 | 11 | +34 | 25 |
| 2 | Monterrey Nữ | 10 | 39 | 13 | +26 | 27 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL Nữ | 10 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 25 |
| 4 | Toluca Nữ | 9 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | Atlético San Luis Nữ | 9 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Nữ | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM Nữ | 10 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | León Nữ | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Juárez Nữ | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 10 | Pachuca Nữ | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna Femenil | 10 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 15 |
| 12 | Puebla Nữ | 10 | 13 | 39 | -26 | 3 |
| 13 | Tijuana Nữ | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Nữ | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas Nữ | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Querétaro Nữ | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Atlante Nữ | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Necaxa Nữ | 9 | 3 | 36 | -33 | 0 |
