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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Lota Schwager Provincial Ovalle ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.77
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Provincial Ovalle win · Lota Schwager 1–2 Provincial Ovalle
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1c25ad9d92845a335dca28bbc0b52690137b00d0d69cc13948cb6bc05c7791bb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Lota Schwager or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Lota Schwager"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lota Schwager",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1497,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5106,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.77
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.77,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lota Schwager Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.96,
"market_odds": 1.77,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -20.4,
"value_pct": -36.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 15,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lota Schwager or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lota Schwager or Provincial Ovalle",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Provincial Ovalle",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Lota Schwager or Provincial Ovalle",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Lota Schwager"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.7,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Provincial Ovalle Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.91
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Provincial Ovalle",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.12,
"draw": 25.82,
"home": 51.06
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:59:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 18:31:18",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Lota Schwager",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.06,
"gap_pp": -14.97,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.82,
"gap_pp": 3.84,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.12,
"gap_pp": 11.12,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.56,
"gap_pp": 3.64,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.44,
"gap_pp": -3.64,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.77,
"early": 1.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.06,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.06,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.5,
"early": 3.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.82,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.12,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.09,
"early": 2.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.56,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.44,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.013,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5047
},
"p_final": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.041,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1901,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.0,
"text": "-19.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0518,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10196.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2195,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0125,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lota Schwager",
"sort_key": 5210.0,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0069,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4497,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4566
},
"p_final": 0.4566,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0119,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.064,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5427
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0074,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0074,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5205.92,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.95,
"hero_label": "Lota Schwager",
"market_prob_pct": 51.1,
"market_team": "Lota Schwager",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Lota Schwager",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0518,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lota Schwager at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lota Schwager as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lota Schwager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lota Schwager \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600684 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2195,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.95,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Lota Schwager",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0518,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lota Schwager at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lota Schwager as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lota Schwager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lota Schwager \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600684 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2195,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lota Schwager 1.32 xG vs Provincial Ovalle 1.28 \u2192 Lota Schwager 36.1%",
"Market: Lota Schwager ~51.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Lota Schwager +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lota Schwager with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.95,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Lota Schwager",
"market_prob": 51.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.83,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Provincial Ovalle",
"market_prob": 23.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.04,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.58,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.58,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Lota Schwager",
"market_prob_pct": 51.06,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lota Schwager"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Lota Schwager\u0027s win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lota Schwager",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -15.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -15.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Lota Schwager \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lota Schwager 1.32 xG vs Provincial Ovalle 1.28 \u2192 Lota Schwager 36.1%",
"Market: Lota Schwager ~51.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Lota Schwager +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lota Schwager with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.95,
"hero_label": "Lota Schwager",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lota Schwager is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lota Schwager than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lota Schwager than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Lota Schwager than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lota Schwager is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Lota Schwager more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Lota Schwager (pricing gap 14.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Lota Schwager",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Lota Schwager higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.95,
"edge_pp": -14.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lota Schwager",
"market_prob_pct": 51.06,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.83,
"edge_pp": 3.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.12,
"edge_pp": 11.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Provincial Ovalle",
"market_prob_pct": 23.12,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lota Schwager than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lota Schwager (51.1%).",
"Lota Schwager \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.5,
"closing_odds": 1.77,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.5,
"entry_odds": 1.77,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 1.67,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.67,
"pick_team": "Lota Schwager",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "Lota Schwager",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "provincial-ovalle",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Provincial Ovalle",
"away_team_id": 18776,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18776.webp",
"away_team_name": "Provincial Ovalle",
"away_team_public_id": "1x2xif42ajKm2G",
"away_team_slug": "provincial-ovalle",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1600684,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Lota Schwager",
"home_team_id": 27606,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Lota Schwager",
"home_team_public_id": "1Wxc2u26jnt0S4",
"home_team_slug": "lota-schwager",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lota-schwager",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_id": 711,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/711.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kq0Z17AmxzSEP",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 19:00:00",
"public_id": "5wQmBTNX9LuR3a",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2499,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0278,
"ev": 0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.2312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2582,
"home": 0.5106
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.259
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2827,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.2582,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2582,
"home": 0.5106
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2691
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4653,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2312,
"draw": 0.2582,
"home": 0.5106
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.441
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0866,
"ev": 0.3388,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.011,
"ev": 0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.204,
"ev": -0.3611,
"implied_prob": 0.565,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2237,
"alpha_yes": 0.2034,
"best_no_odd": 1.78,
"best_yes_odd": 1.93,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0658,
"edge_yes": 0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1901,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1067,
"ev_yes": 0.0518,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0565,
"implied_no": 0.5208,
"implied_yes": 0.4792,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5047
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5047,
"p_final_yes": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2141,
"alpha_under": 0.2355,
"best_over_odd": 2.09,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.675,
"edge_over": 0.0304,
"edge_under": -0.0304,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0074,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.064,
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0909,
"implied_over": 0.4516,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4497,
"implied_under": 0.5484,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5503,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4566
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5427
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4566,
"p_final_under": 0.5427,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0518,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3388,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0518,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0518,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3388,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lota Schwager at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lota Schwager as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lota Schwager",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lota Schwager \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.46 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +34% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1600684 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.46 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Lota Schwager), but pricing still diverges by 15.0 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lota Schwager).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2195,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0696,
"ev": -0.2195,
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lota Schwager"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.481,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0143,
"ev": -0.1067,
"implied_prob": 0.519,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5047
},
"p_final": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0565,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2034,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.481,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.494
}
},
"edge": 0.0658,
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0069,
"market_prob": 0.4497,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2141,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0069,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.4497,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4566
},
"p_final": 0.4566,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.064,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.0909,
"implied_prob": 0.5503,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5427
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": 0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.4516,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1600684,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0518,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Provincial Ovalle",
"home": "Lota Schwager"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028231,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0518,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2195,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.9%",
"consensus_odds": 1.77,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5106,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-15.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -15.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5649717514124294,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-36.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1600684,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T18:59:54.708887+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Segunda División Chile — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
