The model missed the final outcome (Municipal Salamanca win 2–0).
The model had projected Linares Unido at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (2 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Không ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Linares Unido Municipal Salamanca ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Không đúng
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Municipal Salamanca win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Municipal Salamanca 1.29 — Linares Unido 1.31
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Municipal Salamanca win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Municipal Salamanca win · Municipal Salamanca 2–0 Linares Unido
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9da2777594758bbc30d7e4266ca1066c60d61ca96fcde76f22e19ac513fe5c76",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.3564,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.347,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Municipal Salamanca or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Municipal Salamanca"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Linares Unido",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0571,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2988,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.6,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.03
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.03,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Linares Unido Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.35,
"market_odds": 3.03,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": 2.6,
"value_pct": 7.8,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 17,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 72.5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.31,
"home_expected": 1.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Municipal Salamanca or Draw",
"prob": 64.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Municipal Salamanca or Linares Unido",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Linares Unido",
"prob": 65.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Municipal Salamanca or Linares Unido",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Linares Unido"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.9,
"implied_prob": 33.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Linares Unido Win",
"model_prob": 35.6,
"odds": 3.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Linares Unido",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 29.88,
"draw": 33.91,
"home": 36.21
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 15:01:31",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 14:32:14",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Municipal Salamanca",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.21,
"gap_pp": -1.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.73
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.91,
"gap_pp": -4.23,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.88,
"gap_pp": 5.71,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.23,
"gap_pp": 13.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.77,
"gap_pp": -13.97,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.5,
"early": 2.5,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.21,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.67,
"early": 2.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.03,
"early": 3.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.23,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
"early": 1.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.77,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.6,
"ev": -0.1117,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.05,
"market_prob": 0.1418,
"market_prob_pct": 14.2,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.205,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2966,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2966,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10416.94,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0204,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.4367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5409
},
"p_final": 0.4571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.139,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0447,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4571
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.0,
"text": "-24.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1718,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.2,
"text": "+17.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1718,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10154.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0472,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.7,
"text": "-4.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0472,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.7,
"text": "-4.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Linares Unido",
"sort_key": 1788.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.76,
"hero_label": "Linares Unido",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"market_team": "Municipal Salamanca",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Linares Unido",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Linares Unido at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Linares Unido as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Linares Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0472,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.76,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Municipal Salamanca",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Linares Unido at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Linares Unido as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Linares Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0472,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Municipal Salamanca 1.29 xG vs Linares Unido 1.31 \u2192 Linares Unido 35.6%",
"Market: Municipal Salamanca ~29.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Municipal Salamanca +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Linares Unido with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.51,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Municipal Salamanca",
"market_prob": 36.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Linares Unido",
"market_prob": 29.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.52,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.52,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Linares Unido",
"market_prob_pct": 29.88,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Municipal Salamanca"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Linares Unido\u0027s win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.9%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Linares Unido",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Municipal Salamanca 1.29 xG vs Linares Unido 1.31 \u2192 Linares Unido 35.6%",
"Market: Municipal Salamanca ~29.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Municipal Salamanca +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Linares Unido with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.76,
"hero_label": "Linares Unido",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Linares Unido.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Linares Unido.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Linares Unido."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Linares Unido.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Linares Unido",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.8,
"lead": "The model rates Linares Unido considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.51,
"edge_pp": -1.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Municipal Salamanca",
"market_prob_pct": 36.21,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.26,
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.76,
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Linares Unido",
"market_prob_pct": 29.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Linares Unido.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Municipal Salamanca (29.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Linares Unido, Market \u2192 Municipal Salamanca, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 33.0,
"closing_odds": 3.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.0,
"entry_odds": 3.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.25,
"pick_team": "Municipal Salamanca",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "Municipal Salamanca",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "linares-unido",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Linares Unido",
"away_team_id": 15717,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15717.webp",
"away_team_name": "Linares Unido",
"away_team_public_id": "4y1O44Te7l1zGB",
"away_team_slug": "linares-unido",
"country_code": "CL",
"country_display_name": "Chile",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
"country_id": 31,
"country_name": "Chile",
"fixture_id": 1600715,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Chile",
"home_team_display_name": "Municipal Salamanca",
"home_team_id": 18775,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18775.webp",
"home_team_name": "Municipal Salamanca",
"home_team_public_id": "2LNSPfU8SxkEJN",
"home_team_slug": "municipal-salamanca",
"ht.home_team_slug": "municipal-salamanca",
"league_country": "Chile",
"league_country_display": "Chile",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_id": 711,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/711.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n Chile",
"league_public_id": "3kq0Z17AmxzSEP",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 15:00:00",
"public_id": "05QVyUKeZaEjzY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Salamanca",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Salamanca"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2743,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2988,
"draw": 0.3391,
"home": 0.3621
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3145
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4215,
"best_odd": 2.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.3391,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2988,
"draw": 0.3391,
"home": 0.3621
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3213
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.3621,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2988,
"draw": 0.3391,
"home": 0.3621
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3556
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.03,
"edge": 0.0259,
"ev": 0.0785,
"implied_prob": 0.33,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.67,
"edge": -0.0777,
"ev": -0.2076,
"implied_prob": 0.3745,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": -0.0527,
"ev": -0.1318,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2073,
"alpha_yes": 0.1884,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1052,
"edge_yes": 0.1052,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2401,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1238,
"ev_yes": 0.1718,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0447,
"implied_no": 0.5602,
"implied_yes": 0.4398,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5409
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5409,
"p_final_yes": 0.4571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1485,
"alpha_under": 0.2042,
"best_over_odd": 2.69,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.44,
"edge_over": 0.1192,
"edge_under": -0.1192,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2966,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.043,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1206,
"implied_over": 0.3628,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3655,
"implied_under": 0.6372,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3828,
"p_final_under": 0.6107,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Linares Unido at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Linares Unido as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Linares Unido",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Municipal Salamanca, but the model still strongly favours Linares Unido.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0472,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Linares Unido"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0204,
"market_prob": 0.4367,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0225,
"ev": -0.1238,
"implied_prob": 0.5633,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5409
},
"p_final": 0.4571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0447,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.4367,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4571
}
},
"edge": 0.1052,
"ev": 0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3828
},
"p_final": 0.3828,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.043,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1206,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6107
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1192,
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.3628,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1600715,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3559,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1718,
"implied_prob": 0.4398,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Linares Unido",
"home": "Municipal Salamanca"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.100073,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2966,
"implied_prob": 0.3628,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0472,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2988,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33003300330033003,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0784,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1600715,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T15:01:33.007193+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Municipal Salamanca & Linares Unido!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Segunda División Chile — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
