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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (6 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Austria Salzburg Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Austria Salzburg 3–3 Sturm Graz II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4fc4257595204669e7e7d891575cfb251ca3cd98d53ae59f78024d05a3387835",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Austria Salzburg and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Austria Salzburg"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Austria Salzburg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0309,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4404,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.16
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.16,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Austria Salzburg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.27,
"market_odds": 2.16,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": -5.3,
"value_pct": -11.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 5,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Austria Salzburg or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Austria Salzburg or Sturm Graz II",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sturm Graz II",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Austria Salzburg or Sturm Graz II",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Austria Salzburg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.2,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.11,
"draw": 25.85,
"home": 44.04
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:29:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:06:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Austria Salzburg",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.04,
"gap_pp": -3.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.85,
"gap_pp": 3.54,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.11,
"gap_pp": -0.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.67,
"gap_pp": -10.47,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.33,
"gap_pp": 10.47,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.16,
"early": 2.16,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.68,
"early": 3.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.85,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.16,
"early": 3.16,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.62,
"early": 1.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.67,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.33,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0154,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4171,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.21,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5617
},
"p_final": 0.4325,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1655,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0268,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0268,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4325
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.1,
"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1914,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0111,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3902,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4013
},
"p_final": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0832,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.053,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5945
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1016,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.2,
"text": "+10.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1506,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.1,
"text": "-15.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1016,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10091.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0773,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.7,
"text": "-7.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0117,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Austria Salzburg",
"sort_key": 1797.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"alert_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.55,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"market_team": "Austria Salzburg",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Austria Salzburg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria Salzburg at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria Salzburg as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0773,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.55,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"steam_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria Salzburg at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria Salzburg as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0773,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austria Salzburg 1.42 xG vs Sturm Graz II 1.18 \u2192 Austria Salzburg 40.9%",
"Market: Austria Salzburg ~44.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sturm Graz II \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Austria Salzburg, but sharp money moved toward Sturm Graz II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.13,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Austria Salzburg",
"market_prob": 44.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob": 30.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.1,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.1,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.61,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.71,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.61,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.29,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.85,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Sturm Graz II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Austria Salzburg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.1,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austria Salzburg 1.42 xG vs Sturm Graz II 1.18 \u2192 Austria Salzburg 40.9%",
"Market: Austria Salzburg ~44.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Sturm Graz II \u2193 -9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Austria Salzburg, but sharp money moved toward Sturm Graz II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.55,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Sturm Graz II odds shortened \u2193 -9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Sturm Graz II, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Sturm Graz II \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Sturm Graz II, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"Buying interest on Sturm Graz II \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Sturm Graz II has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Sturm Graz II."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.55,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.13,
"edge_pp": -3.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Austria Salzburg",
"market_prob_pct": 44.04,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.55,
"edge_pp": 3.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.42,
"edge_pp": -0.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 30.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Sturm Graz II \u2014 odds shortened by 9.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Austria Salzburg (44.0%).",
"However, Sturm Graz II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.1%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Austria Salzburg, Market \u2192 Austria Salzburg, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sturm Graz II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.17,
"closing_odds": 3.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.17,
"entry_odds": 3.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Sturm Graz II (9.1%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.30",
"3.15",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.68 \u2192 3.00 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"move_speed_label": "Active repricing over 3h 57m",
"pick_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.68"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.16,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,8.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sturm Graz II \u2193 -9.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sturm Graz II \u2193 -9.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved toward Sturm Graz II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sturm Graz II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"away_team_id": 8251,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8251.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"away_team_public_id": "3lQXyxeCmlrG4k",
"away_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1567902,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Austria Salzburg",
"home_team_id": 5000,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5000.webp",
"home_team_name": "Austria Salzburg",
"home_team_public_id": "0NJs2lG4cA2Sp5",
"home_team_slug": "austria-salzburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "austria-salzburg",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_id": 219,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1COmL0rG6VJrAT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2uyEK5S2QMuufP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Salzburg",
"venue_name": "Max-Aicher-Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.298,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0013,
"ev": -0.0529,
"implied_prob": 0.3011,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3011,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.4404
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2997
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2841,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0117,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3011,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.4404
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2686
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4292,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3011,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.4404
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4272
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0816,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": -0.0534,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1614,
"alpha_yes": 0.222,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0661,
"edge_yes": -0.0661,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1016,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.053,
"ev_yes": -0.1506,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1022,
"implied_no": 0.3929,
"implied_yes": 0.6071,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4013
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5945
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4013,
"p_final_yes": 0.5945,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.21,
"alpha_under": 0.1528,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.101,
"edge_under": 0.101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0956,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0268,
"implied_over": 0.583,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5829,
"implied_under": 0.417,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4171,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.21,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5617
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0268,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4325
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5617,
"p_final_under": 0.4325,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria Salzburg at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria Salzburg as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria Salzburg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Sturm Graz II, but the model still strongly favours Austria Salzburg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0773,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.0773,
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Austria Salzburg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.3902,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1614,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.3902,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4013
},
"p_final": 0.4013,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.053,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.222,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5945
}
},
"edge": 0.0661,
"ev": 0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.3929,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1528,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0154,
"market_prob": 0.4171,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.21,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.5829,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5617
},
"p_final": 0.4325,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0268,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0268,
"implied_prob": 0.4171,
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"p_final": 0.4325
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.101,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1567902,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.3929,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1016,
"implied_prob": 0.3929,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sturm Graz II",
"home": "Austria Salzburg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0773,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4404,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4629629629629629,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567902,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:29:26.420831+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Austria Salzburg & Sturm Graz II!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng Nhì Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | FC Liefering | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Floridsdorfer AC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | SKU Amstetten | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Sturm Graz II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Rapid Wien II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Voitsberg | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | SKN St. Pölten | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 5 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | FC Liefering | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Austria Salzburg | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz II | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | First Vienna | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Floridsdorfer AC | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | Voitsberg | 5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Admira Wacker | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | SKU Amstetten | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | SKN St. Pölten | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
