The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Wacker Innsbruck at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
F
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Có ✖ Không đúng
- 1X2 Wacker Innsbruck Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Không đúng
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz II | 33.3% | 40.0% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.6% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Wacker Innsbruck | 37.1% | 35.4% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Sturm Graz II's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wacker Innsbruck by 6.7 percentage points (43.8% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 37.0%
- xG · Sturm Graz II 1.26 — Wacker Innsbruck 1.34
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz II 2.38 · Draw 3.87 · Wacker Innsbruck 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 40.0% · Draw 24.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz II 2.38 · Draw 3.87 · Wacker Innsbruck 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 40.0% · Draw 24.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
23/100
Monitoring Confidence
34/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.38
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sturm Graz II 2–2 Wacker Innsbruck
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.26,
"home_win_prob": 0.3331,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Sturm Graz II",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Sturm Graz II"
},
"away_xg": 1.34,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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}
],
"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -0.1,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
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"home_played": 6,
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.34,
"home_expected": 1.26,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 10.0
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{
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sturm Graz II or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sturm Graz II or Wacker Innsbruck",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Wacker Innsbruck",
"prob": 66.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sturm Graz II or Wacker Innsbruck",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 14.6,
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"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
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"odds": 3.87
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 24.6,
"home": 40.0
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:30:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:06:48",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.0,
"gap_pp": -6.66,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.6,
"gap_pp": 5.0,
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{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.0625,
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"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
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{
"label": "1-0",
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{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
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{
"label": "2-1",
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
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"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0217,
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"implied_prob": 0.5859,
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"p_final": 0.5642
},
"p_final": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.4,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"under": {
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2018,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.2,
"text": "+20.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2018,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10331.62,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
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"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
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},
"p_final": 0.3968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.9,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.8,
"text": "+13.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1375,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10123.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0283,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0058,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.6,
"text": "+0.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"sort_key": 5204.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"alert_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.69,
"hero_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"market_team": "Sturm Graz II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.69,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"steam_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sturm Graz II 1.26 xG vs Wacker Innsbruck 1.34 \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck 37.1%",
"Market: Sturm Graz II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wacker Innsbruck, but the market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob": 40.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Sturm Graz II\u0027s win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sturm Graz II 1.26 xG vs Wacker Innsbruck 1.34 \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck 37.1%",
"Market: Sturm Graz II ~35.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Wacker Innsbruck, but the market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.69,
"hero_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Wacker Innsbruck odds lengthened \u2191 +20.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Sturm Graz II above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Wacker Innsbruck has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Wacker Innsbruck."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sturm Graz II",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Sturm Graz II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.69,
"edge_pp": -6.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sturm Graz II",
"market_prob_pct": 40.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.03,
"edge_pp": 5.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.67,
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"market_prob_pct": 35.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Wacker Innsbruck \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sturm Graz II (35.4%).",
"However, Wacker Innsbruck has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.9%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Wacker Innsbruck, Market \u2192 Sturm Graz II, while Wacker Innsbruck odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.02,
"closing_odds": 2.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.02,
"entry_odds": 2.38,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Wacker Innsbruck together (20.9% drift, score 67) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.69",
"2.42",
"2.15"
],
"display": "2.69 \u2192 1.92 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 52m",
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.15,
2.69,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.15,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Wacker Innsbruck odds \u2191 +20.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"summary": "Market moved away from Wacker Innsbruck while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "wacker-innsbruck",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"away_team_id": 1073,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1073.webp",
"away_team_name": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"away_team_public_id": "105Q5iPOslKItW",
"away_team_slug": "wacker-innsbruck",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_display_name": "Austria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_id": 10,
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1567915,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"home_team_id": 8251,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8251.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sturm Graz II",
"home_team_public_id": "3lQXyxeCmlrG4k",
"home_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sturm-graz-ii",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_country_display": "Austria",
"league_display_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_id": 219,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/219.webp",
"league_name": "Gi\u1ea3i h\u1ea1ng Nh\u00ec \u00c1o",
"league_public_id": "1COmL0rG6VJrAT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:30:00",
"public_id": "2N3ZGLWixxFrDC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Gleisdorf",
"venue_name": "Solarstadion Gleisdorf"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4388,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3612
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2775,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0139,
"ev": 0.0058,
"implied_prob": 0.246,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2599
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4051,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.027,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.246,
"home": 0.4
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3731
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.87,
"edge": 0.0376,
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0867,
"ev": -0.2063,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1613,
"alpha_yes": 0.2217,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0713,
"edge_yes": -0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1375,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0517,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1015,
"implied_no": 0.3837,
"implied_yes": 0.6163,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3968,
"p_final_yes": 0.599,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2089,
"alpha_under": 0.1519,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.32,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": -0.103,
"edge_under": 0.103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1029,
"ev_under": 0.2018,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"implied_over": 0.585,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5859,
"implied_under": 0.415,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4141,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5859,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5642
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4299
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5642,
"p_final_under": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2018,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2018,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Wacker Innsbruck at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Wacker Innsbruck as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Wacker Innsbruck, but the model still strongly favours Wacker Innsbruck.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0283,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Wacker Innsbruck"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.3856,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.3856,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3968
},
"p_final": 0.3968,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0517,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6144,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.599
}
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4141,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2089,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1029,
"implied_prob": 0.5859,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5642
},
"p_final": 0.4299,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1519,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.4141,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4299
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.103,
"ev": 0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1567915,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2018,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Wacker Innsbruck",
"home": "Sturm Graz II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.073173,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0283,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0034,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1567915,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:30:19.461701+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Sturm Graz II & Wacker Innsbruck!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Giải hạng Nhì Áo — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Blau-Weiß Linz | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Liefering | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | SKN St. Pölten | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
