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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Cali win · Deportivo Cali 3–1 Alianza Petrolera
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "779e533fa0fb5092f3959674ceb0758b9fec61187032427c91beafd6a58131f8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.1848,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2793,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.5359,
"away_predicted_xg": 0.87,
"away_win_prob": 0.1848,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1848,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.538,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.462,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2793,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2793,
"fair_odds_away": 5.41,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.41,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.58,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.58,
"fair_odds_home": 1.87,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.87,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"home_win_prob": 0.5359,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.5359,
"over_25_prob": 0.412,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.588
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Deportivo Cali or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Deportivo Cali"
},
"away_xg": 0.87,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0938,
"edge_gap": 0.2557,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6292,
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 18.5,
"draw": 28.0,
"home": 53.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.51
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.51,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Deportivo Cali Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.59,
"market_odds": 1.51,
"model_odds": 1.87,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": -12.7,
"value_pct": -19.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 58.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 11,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 76.8,
"no_prob": 53.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 46.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.87,
"home_expected": 1.46,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Cali or Draw",
"prob": 81.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Cali or Alianza Petrolera",
"prob": 72.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Alianza Petrolera",
"prob": 46.4
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Cali or Draw",
"pick_prob": 81.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 18.5,
"draw_pct": 27.9,
"home_pct": 53.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Cali"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.33,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 41.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.33,
"under_prob": 58.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 33.0,
"implied_prob": 13.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Alianza Petrolera Win",
"model_prob": 18.5,
"odds": 7.19
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 13.21,
"draw": 23.87,
"home": 62.92
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 00:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 00:14:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Cali",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.92,
"gap_pp": -9.38,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 53.53
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.87,
"gap_pp": 4.09,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 13.21,
"gap_pp": 5.29,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 18.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.08,
"gap_pp": -3.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 41.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.92,
"gap_pp": 3.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.92,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.98,
"early": 3.98,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.87,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 7.19,
"early": 7.19,
"implied_closing_pct": 13.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 13.21,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 45.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 45.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.1,
"ev": -0.0699,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 6.55,
"market_prob": 0.1527,
"market_prob_pct": 15.3,
"model_prob": 0.142,
"model_prob_pct": 14.2,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 14.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.46,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": 0.025,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.5438,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5147,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4335
},
"p_final": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0114,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0216,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5661,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5688
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1266,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0584,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0584,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 41.2,
"sort_key": 10202.56,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 58.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0201,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.0,
"text": "+2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"sort_key": 5216.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0164,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.4291,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.549,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5528
},
"p_final": 0.4455,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0044,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0399,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4991,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0399,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4455
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1015,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0164,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0164,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 53.8,
"sort_key": 5213.12,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 46.2
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 822.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 14.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"alert_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.33,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"market_prob_pct": 62.9,
"market_team": "Deportivo Cali",
"model_prob_pct": 53.6,
"model_team": "Deportivo Cali",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3304,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Cali at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Cali as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Cali",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportivo Cali \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549806 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.33,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.33,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.87,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.46,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 0.87 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"steam_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3304,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Cali at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Cali as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Cali",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportivo Cali \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549806 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Cali 1.46 xG vs Alianza Petrolera 0.87 \u2192 Deportivo Cali 53.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Cali ~62.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Alianza Petrolera odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Deportivo Cali projects stronger on expected goals (+0.59 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.33,
"fair_prob": 53.59,
"label": "Deportivo Cali",
"market_prob": 62.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob": 18.48,
"label": "Alianza Petrolera",
"market_prob": 13.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.35,
"fair_prob": 41.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.35,
"fair_prob": 58.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Cali",
"market_prob_pct": 62.92,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Alianza Petrolera"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Deportivo Cali\u0027s win probability at 62.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 53.6%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.33,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 62.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.3,
"model_prob_pct": 53.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Cali \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Cali 1.46 xG vs Alianza Petrolera 0.87 \u2192 Deportivo Cali 53.6%",
"Market: Deportivo Cali ~62.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Alianza Petrolera odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Deportivo Cali projects stronger on expected goals (+0.59 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.33,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Alianza Petrolera odds lengthened \u2191 +15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Alianza Petrolera has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Deportivo Cali. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Alianza Petrolera \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Deportivo Cali. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Alianza Petrolera has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Alianza Petrolera \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Deportivo Cali above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Alianza Petrolera has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Alianza Petrolera."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.33,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 25.7 pp (at 53.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 25.7,
"max_prob_pct": 53.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Cali",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Deportivo Cali higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -9.33,
"edge_pp": -9.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Cali",
"market_prob_pct": 62.92,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.06,
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.87,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.27,
"edge_pp": 5.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Alianza Petrolera",
"market_prob_pct": 13.21,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Alianza Petrolera \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Cali (62.9%).",
"However, Alianza Petrolera has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.4%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Deportivo Cali \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 6m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Alianza Petrolera together (15.4% drift, score 56) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"7.00",
"6.50"
],
"display": "7.50 \u2192 5.13 \u2192 7.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 88h 6m",
"pick_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.13"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
7.19,
7.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/9 sportsbooks on Alianza Petrolera",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Alianza Petrolera",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Alianza Petrolera",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "alianza-petrolera",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Alianza Petrolera",
"away_team_id": 1141,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1141.webp",
"away_team_name": "Alianza Petrolera",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Alianza Petrolera",
"away_team_public_id": "46s8OjOpUYvg6b",
"away_team_slug": "alianza-petrolera",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549806,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Cali",
"home_team_id": 1127,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1127.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Cali",
"home_team_public_id": "5Sz9mCCBgQCuye",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-cali",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-cali",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 00:45:00",
"public_id": "5Bsd0frT4o99yW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Palmira",
"venue_name": "Estadio Deportivo Cali"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1841,
"best_odd": 7.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": 0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.1321,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1321,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.6292
},
"model_prob": 0.185,
"p_final": 0.1419
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2816,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0041,
"implied_prob": 0.2387,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1321,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.6292
},
"model_prob": 0.2796,
"p_final": 0.2502
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5156,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0484,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1321,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.6292
},
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"p_final": 0.5808
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.19,
"edge": 0.046,
"ev": 0.3304,
"implied_prob": 0.1391,
"model_prob": 0.185
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.1129,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.2796
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.1269,
"ev": -0.1916,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.5353
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.549,
"alpha_yes": 0.4991,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0334,
"edge_yes": 0.0334,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1015,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1044,
"ev_yes": 0.0164,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0399,
"implied_no": 0.5714,
"implied_yes": 0.4286,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.549,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5528
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4991,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0399,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4455
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5528,
"p_final_yes": 0.4455,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5147,
"alpha_under": 0.5661,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.72,
"edge_over": -0.0435,
"edge_under": 0.0435,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1266,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1114,
"ev_under": 0.0584,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0216,
"implied_over": 0.4555,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4562,
"implied_under": 0.5445,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5438,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5147,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4335
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5661,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5688
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4335,
"p_final_under": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3304,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0584,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0584,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3304,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Cali at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 62.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Cali as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Cali",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Deportivo Cali \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549806 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Cali).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.462,
"draw_prob": 0.2796,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5353,
"over_prob": 0.412,
"total_xg": 2.33,
"under_prob": 0.588,
"xg_diff": 0.59
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0201,
"implied_prob": 0.1321,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.185,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Alianza Petrolera",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0484,
"ev": -0.123,
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Cali"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4991,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0164,
"market_prob": 0.4291,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.549,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.018,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.5528
},
"p_final": 0.4455,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0399,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4991,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0399,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.4455
}
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.0164,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": 0.025,
"market_prob": 0.5438,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5147,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0228,
"ev": -0.1114,
"implied_prob": 0.4562,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"p_final": 0.4335
},
"p_final": 0.5688,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0216,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5661,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": -0.0216,
"implied_prob": 0.5438,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"p_final": 0.5688
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0435,
"ev": 0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549806,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0584,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.185,
"draw": 0.2796,
"home": 0.5353
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Alianza Petrolera",
"home": "Deportivo Cali"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.034339,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5445,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.123,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6292,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5353,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6622516556291391,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1917,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549806,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T01:06:49.725097+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Cali & Alianza Petrolera!
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Đăng ký ngay
Primera A Colombia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Chico FC | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
