The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Deportivo Pasto at 42.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (0 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Deportivo Pasto Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 42.8% | 42.4% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 33.1% | 30.6% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Fortaleza FC | 24.2% | 27.0% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.87, 0 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Pasto; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 42.7% · Draw 33.1% · Fortaleza FC 24.1%
- xG · Deportivo Pasto 1.12 — Fortaleza FC 0.75
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 2.25 · Draw 3.12 · Fortaleza FC 3.54
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 42.4% · Draw 30.6% · Fortaleza FC 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto 2.25 · Draw 3.12 · Fortaleza FC 3.54
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto 42.4% · Draw 30.6% · Fortaleza FC 27.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Observe
Quyết định lịch sử
No Primary Bet
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.54
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Fortaleza FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.288,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Deportivo Pasto or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"confidence": null,
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"selection": null,
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"pick": "No",
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"double_chance": {
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 67.0
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{
"key": "X2",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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{
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"text": "-33.2%"
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{
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1304,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 13.0,
"text": "+13.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.256,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.6,
"text": "-25.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1304,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 62.8,
"sort_key": 10117.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 37.2
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0422,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0227,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"sort_key": 1794.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 831.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 17.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.79,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza FC",
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"market_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"model_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Pasto at 42.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Pasto as the value side (42.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Pasto",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0422,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.79,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.79,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.75,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.12,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 0.75 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -17%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Pasto at 42.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Pasto as the value side (42.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Pasto",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0422,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Pasto 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza FC 0.75 \u2192 Deportivo Pasto 42.8%",
"Market: Deportivo Pasto ~42.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Pasto +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Pasto with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.32,
"fair_prob": 42.75,
"label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"market_prob": 42.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.47,
"fair_prob": 33.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.79,
"fair_prob": 24.18,
"label": "Fortaleza FC",
"market_prob": 26.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.05,
"fair_prob": 28.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.05,
"fair_prob": 71.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.76,
"fair_prob": 37.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.76,
"fair_prob": 62.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.18,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fortaleza FC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.97,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.79,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.4,
"model_prob_pct": 42.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Deportivo Pasto \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 98,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Deportivo Pasto 1.12 xG vs Fortaleza FC 0.75 \u2192 Deportivo Pasto 42.8%",
"Market: Deportivo Pasto ~42.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Deportivo Pasto +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Deportivo Pasto with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.79,
"hero_label": "Fortaleza FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Deportivo Pasto has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Pasto.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Deportivo Pasto has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Pasto."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Deportivo Pasto has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Deportivo Pasto."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.79,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.7 pp (at 42.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Fortaleza FC",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.32,
"edge_pp": 0.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Pasto",
"market_prob_pct": 42.43,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.47,
"edge_pp": 2.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.79,
"edge_pp": -2.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.18,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fortaleza FC",
"market_prob_pct": 26.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Deportivo Pasto.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Pasto (42.4%).",
"Deportivo Pasto \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.25,
"closing_odds": 3.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.25,
"entry_odds": 3.54,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Pasto",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fortaleza-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Fortaleza FC",
"away_team_id": 1147,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1147.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fortaleza FC",
"away_team_public_id": "079KE0UrkDKLg7",
"away_team_slug": "fortaleza-fc",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549808,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"home_team_id": 1126,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1126.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Pasto",
"home_team_public_id": "1h2i7Gyr4bXBVA",
"home_team_slug": "deportivo-pasto",
"ht.home_team_slug": "deportivo-pasto",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4oYtKCn525xRfb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Pasto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Departamental Libertad"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2873,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.0739,
"implied_prob": 0.2697,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2697,
"draw": 0.306,
"home": 0.4243
},
"model_prob": 0.2415,
"p_final": 0.2616
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2887,
"best_odd": 3.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.306,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2697,
"draw": 0.306,
"home": 0.4243
},
"model_prob": 0.3311,
"p_final": 0.3132
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.448,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2697,
"draw": 0.306,
"home": 0.4243
},
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"p_final": 0.4257
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1449,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2415
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.12,
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": 0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.3205,
"model_prob": 0.3311
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.4273
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4819,
"alpha_yes": 0.4381,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1076,
"edge_yes": -0.1076,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1304,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.016,
"ev_yes": -0.256,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.171,
"implied_no": 0.5204,
"implied_yes": 0.4796,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4819,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0532,
"ev": 0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.5176,
"model_prob": 0.628,
"p_final": 0.5708
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4381,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0484,
"ev": -0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"model_prob": 0.372,
"p_final": 0.434
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5708,
"p_final_yes": 0.434,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3371,
"alpha_under": 0.4635,
"best_over_odd": 2.32,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": -0.1305,
"edge_under": 0.1305,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3318,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.167,
"ev_under": 0.1748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0294,
"implied_over": 0.4185,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4196,
"implied_under": 0.5815,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5804,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3371,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0444,
"ev": -0.167,
"implied_prob": 0.4196,
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.3752
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4635,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": 0.061,
"ev": 0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.5804,
"model_prob": 0.712,
"p_final": 0.6414
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3752,
"p_final_under": 0.6414,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.87,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1748,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1748,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1748,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1748,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Deportivo Pasto at 42.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Deportivo Pasto as the value side (42.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Deportivo Pasto",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +17.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +17.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+17.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Deportivo Pasto).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0422,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.37
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.372,
"draw_prob": 0.3311,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4273,
"over_prob": 0.288,
"total_xg": 1.87,
"under_prob": 0.712,
"xg_diff": 0.37
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0014,
"ev": -0.0422,
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Pasto"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4819,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0532,
"market_prob": 0.5176,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.628,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4819,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": 0.0532,
"ev": 0.016,
"implied_prob": 0.5176,
"model_prob": 0.628,
"p_final": 0.5708
},
"p_final": 0.5708,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.016,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4381,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0484,
"ev": -0.171,
"implied_prob": 0.4824,
"model_prob": 0.372,
"p_final": 0.434
}
},
"edge": 0.1076,
"ev": 0.1304,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"model_prob": 0.628,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4635,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.605,
"edge": 0.061,
"market_prob": 0.5804,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.712,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3371,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0444,
"ev": -0.167,
"implied_prob": 0.4196,
"model_prob": 0.288,
"p_final": 0.3752
},
"p_final": 0.6414,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0294,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4635,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": 0.061,
"ev": 0.0294,
"implied_prob": 0.5804,
"model_prob": 0.712,
"p_final": 0.6414
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1305,
"ev": 0.1748,
"implied_prob": 0.5815,
"model_prob": 0.712,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1549808,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1748,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2415,
"draw": 0.3311,
"home": 0.4273
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1304,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.628,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1304,
"implied_prob": 0.5204,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.628,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fortaleza FC",
"home": "Deportivo Pasto"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161795,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1748,
"implied_prob": 0.5815,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.712,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0422,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4243,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4273,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0386,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-3.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549808,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:26:56.782212+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Deportivo Pasto & Fortaleza FC!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Primera A Colombia — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Chico FC | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios FC | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Chico FC | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
