Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Hy Lạp Hy Lạp ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.26
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Hy Lạp win · Serbia 1–2 Hy Lạp
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8e18ebeb66c08c78988d98d3f9670f4eb7295b7bae6d9f30c9937912c8db1797",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4096,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2598,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3306,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.05,
"away_win_prob": 0.4096,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4096,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.271,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.729,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2598,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2598,
"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.44,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.85,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.85,
"fair_odds_home": 3.02,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.02,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.74,
"home_win_prob": 0.3306,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3306,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 2.05,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0327,
"edge_gap": 0.0787,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3768,
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.0,
"draw": 26.0,
"home": 33.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.57
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.57,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Hy L\u1ea1p Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.65,
"market_odds": 2.57,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 2.1,
"value_pct": 5.3,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 87.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 82.4,
"no_prob": 27.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 72.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 72.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.05,
"home_expected": 1.74,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Serbia or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Serbia or Hy L\u1ea1p",
"prob": 74.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Hy L\u1ea1p",
"prob": 67.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Serbia or Hy L\u1ea1p",
"pick_prob": 74.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.0,
"draw_pct": 26.0,
"home_pct": 33.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Hy L\u1ea1p"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.4,
"implied_prob": 38.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Hy L\u1ea1p Win",
"model_prob": 41.0,
"odds": 2.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.68,
"draw": 29.71,
"home": 32.61
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 18:44:08",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-24 18:14:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Serbia",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.61,
"gap_pp": 0.48,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.71,
"gap_pp": -3.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.68,
"gap_pp": 3.27,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.95,
"gap_pp": 32.05,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.05,
"gap_pp": -31.95,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.61,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.61,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.26,
"early": 3.26,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.71,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.57,
"early": 2.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.63,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 32.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.5,
"ev": -0.1492,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 10.25,
"market_prob": 0.0976,
"market_prob_pct": 9.8,
"model_prob": 0.083,
"model_prob_pct": 8.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.74,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0312,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"market_prob": 0.4293,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4605
},
"p_final": 0.4605,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 30.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6206,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0223,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.5707,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5278
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6571,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 65.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5393,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -53.9,
"text": "-53.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6571,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10741.39,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0335,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.5047,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.729,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4618
},
"p_final": 0.5382,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3414,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0097,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": -0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.729,
"p_final": 0.5382
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4797,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -48.0,
"text": "-48.0%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3632,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3632,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.1,
"sort_key": 10326.88,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 72.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0044,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0044,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.4,
"text": "+0.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"sort_key": 5203.52,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"alert_team": "Serbia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"market_team": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"model_prob_pct": 41.0,
"model_team": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hy L\u1ea1p at 40.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hy L\u1ea1p as the value side (40.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.73,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.05,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.74,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.05,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.74 \u00b7 Away xG 2.05 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +52%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"steam_team": "Serbia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hy L\u1ea1p at 40.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hy L\u1ea1p as the value side (40.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Serbia 1.74 xG vs Hy L\u1ea1p 2.05 \u2192 Hy L\u1ea1p 41.0%",
"Market: Hy L\u1ea1p ~37.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Serbia odds \u2191 +7.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hy L\u1ea1p with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.45,
"fair_prob": 33.06,
"label": "Serbia",
"market_prob": 32.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob": 25.98,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob": 40.96,
"label": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"market_prob": 37.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.07,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.97,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.36,
"fair_prob": 72.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.36,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.98,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.71,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Serbia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Hy L\u1ea1p \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 83,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Serbia 1.74 xG vs Hy L\u1ea1p 2.05 \u2192 Hy L\u1ea1p 41.0%",
"Market: Hy L\u1ea1p ~37.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Serbia odds \u2191 +7.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hy L\u1ea1p with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.73,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Serbia odds lengthened \u2191 +7.8%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Serbia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Serbia \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Serbia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Serbia \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Serbia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Serbia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.9 pp (at 41.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.9,
"max_prob_pct": 41.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.45,
"edge_pp": 0.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Serbia",
"market_prob_pct": 32.61,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.73,
"edge_pp": -3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.98,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.28,
"edge_pp": 3.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.96,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"market_prob_pct": 37.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Serbia \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hy L\u1ea1p (37.7%).",
"However, Serbia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.8%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Hy L\u1ea1p \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.67,
"closing_odds": 3.26,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.67,
"entry_odds": 3.26,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Serbia (7.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.97",
"2.76",
"2.55"
],
"display": "2.92 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 54m",
"pick_team": "Serbia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.92"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.55,
2.97,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.55"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.97"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.55,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Serbia",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Serbia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Serbia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "Serbia",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Serbia",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "greece",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"away_team_id": 1117,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1117.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"away_team_public_id": "4Bhb6f5m1nfy4y",
"away_team_slug": "greece",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528863,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Serbia",
"home_team_display_name": "Serbia",
"home_team_id": 14,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14.webp",
"home_team_name": "Serbia",
"home_team_public_id": "1sv5A1MnCssV2J",
"home_team_slug": "serbia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "serbia",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3Or00fclszOhG4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4279,
"best_odd": 2.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0044,
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.2971,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"p_final": 0.3908
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2831,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0106,
"ev": -0.0662,
"implied_prob": 0.2971,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.2971,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.2596,
"p_final": 0.2865
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4468,
"best_odd": 2.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0251,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3768,
"draw": 0.2971,
"home": 0.3261
},
"model_prob": 0.3309,
"p_final": 0.3282
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.57,
"edge": 0.0204,
"ev": 0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.4095
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.26,
"edge": -0.0472,
"ev": -0.1538,
"implied_prob": 0.3067,
"model_prob": 0.2596
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.97,
"edge": -0.0058,
"ev": -0.0172,
"implied_prob": 0.3367,
"model_prob": 0.3309
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1493,
"alpha_yes": 0.1493,
"best_no_odd": 1.92,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2236,
"edge_yes": 0.2236,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4797,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1341,
"ev_yes": 0.3632,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0097,
"implied_no": 0.4946,
"implied_yes": 0.5054,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4618
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": -0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.729,
"p_final": 0.5382
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4618,
"p_final_yes": 0.5382,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1038,
"alpha_under": 0.1431,
"best_over_odd": 2.27,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.3007,
"edge_under": -0.2997,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6571,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0223,
"ev_under": -0.5393,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1185,
"implied_over": 0.4293,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4293,
"implied_under": 0.5707,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5707,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4605
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.5707,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5278
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4605,
"p_final_under": 0.5278,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6571,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6571,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hy L\u1ea1p at 40.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hy L\u1ea1p as the value side (40.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hy L\u1ea1p).",
"Decision strength: 7.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.729,
"draw_prob": 0.2596,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4095,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.31
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0044,
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Hy L\u1ea1p"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0335,
"market_prob": 0.5047,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.729,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.875,
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.4953,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4618
},
"p_final": 0.5382,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0097,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1493,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": -0.0097,
"implied_prob": 0.5047,
"model_prob": 0.729,
"p_final": 0.5382
}
},
"edge": 0.2236,
"ev": 0.3632,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"model_prob": 0.729,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0312,
"market_prob": 0.4293,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1038,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0223,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4605
},
"p_final": 0.4605,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0223,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1431,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0429,
"ev": -0.1185,
"implied_prob": 0.5707,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5278
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.3007,
"ev": 0.6571,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528863,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6571,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4095,
"draw": 0.2596,
"home": 0.3309
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3632,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.729,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3632,
"implied_prob": 0.5054,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.729,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hy L\u1ea1p",
"home": "Serbia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.599604,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6571,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0044,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.57,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3768,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4095,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38910505836575876,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0524,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528863,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T19:09:47.801060+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Serbia & Hy Lạp!
Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.
Đăng ký ngay
Thế giới. UEFA Nations League Dự đoán
