The model missed the final outcome (Phần Lan win 2–1).
The model had projected Albania at 37.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Albania Phần Lan ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 2-1 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phần Lan | 36.0% | 40.5% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 26.7% | 31.1% | -4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Albania | 37.3% | 28.4% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Albania's win probability at 37.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Phần Lan win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Albania.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Albania; match finished Phần Lan
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Albania by 8.9 percentage points (28.4% vs model 37.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:21 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Phần Lan 36.0% · Draw 26.7% · Albania 37.3%
- xG · Phần Lan 1.74 — Albania 2.05
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Phần Lan 2.38 · Draw 3.09 · Albania 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Phần Lan 40.5% · Draw 31.1% · Albania 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Phần Lan 2.38 · Draw 3.09 · Albania 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Phần Lan 40.5% · Draw 31.1% · Albania 28.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Phần Lan win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
69/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
19/100
Monitoring Confidence
31/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.39
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Phần Lan win · Phần Lan 2–1 Albania
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f4688a4f1e9e25928ffb956ae35068c04c75c935270d3b6964274fbe1ea66de9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3733,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2666,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3601,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.05,
"away_win_prob": 0.3733,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3733,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.271,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.729,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2666,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.68,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.68,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.75,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.78,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.78,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.74,
"home_win_prob": 0.3601,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3601,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 2.05,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Albania",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0893,
"edge_gap": 0.0134,
"market": "1X2",
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"model_prob": 0.3733,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 26.7,
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 3.39
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.52,
"market_odds": 3.39,
"model_odds": 2.68,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 7.8,
"value_pct": 26.5,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 87.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 82.4,
"no_prob": 27.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 72.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 72.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.05,
"home_expected": 1.74,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan or Draw",
"prob": 62.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan or Albania",
"prob": 73.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Albania",
"prob": 64.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan or Albania",
"pick_prob": 73.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.3,
"draw_pct": 26.7,
"home_pct": 36.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Albania"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 7.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 26.5,
"implied_prob": 29.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Albania Win",
"model_prob": 37.3,
"odds": 3.39
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Albania",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.4,
"draw": 31.15,
"home": 40.45
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:59:52",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:32:41",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"gap_pp": -4.46,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.99
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.15,
"gap_pp": -4.47,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.4,
"gap_pp": 8.93,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.32,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.68,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.09,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": 0.079,
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"label": "1-2",
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"market_prob": 0.0769,
"market_prob_pct": 7.7,
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"model_prob_pct": 8.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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{
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},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
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{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.74,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0317,
"edge_pp": 3.2,
"market_prob": 0.3773,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0317,
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"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4091
},
"p_final": 0.4091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 35.3,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0227,
"under": {
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"ev": -0.1226,
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"p_final": 0.5791
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.8761,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 87.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5745,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -57.5,
"text": "-57.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.8761,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10938.49,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0362,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"market_prob": 0.4572,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.729,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1466,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.5428,
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},
"p_final": 0.4934,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4799,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0017,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5257,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -52.6,
"text": "-52.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.5309,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 53.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5309,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.1,
"sort_key": 10477.81,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 72.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0414,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0414,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Albania",
"sort_key": 10037.26,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"alert_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.93,
"hero_label": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"market_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"model_team": "Albania",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8761,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0414,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2949852507374631,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (52%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.93,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.05,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.74,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.05,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.74 \u00b7 Away xG 2.05 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +52%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"steam_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8761,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0414,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2949852507374631,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ph\u1ea7n Lan 1.74 xG vs Albania 2.05 \u2192 Albania 37.3%",
"Market: Ph\u1ea7n Lan ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Ph\u1ea7n Lan odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Albania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.44,
"fair_prob": 36.01,
"label": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"market_prob": 40.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.49,
"fair_prob": 26.66,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.93,
"fair_prob": 37.33,
"label": "Albania",
"market_prob": 28.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 35.12,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -35.02,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 27.3,
"fair_prob": 72.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.6,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -27.3,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.4,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.33,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Albania\u0027s win probability at 37.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.4%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Albania",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.9,
"model_prob_pct": 37.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Albania \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 55,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ph\u1ea7n Lan 1.74 xG vs Albania 2.05 \u2192 Albania 37.3%",
"Market: Ph\u1ea7n Lan ~28.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Ph\u1ea7n Lan odds \u2191 +11.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Albania with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.93,
"hero_label": "Albania",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan odds lengthened \u2191 +11.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ph\u1ea7n Lan has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Albania.",
"note": "Drift away from Ph\u1ea7n Lan \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Albania.",
"However, Ph\u1ea7n Lan has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Ph\u1ea7n Lan \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Albania.",
"At the same time, Ph\u1ea7n Lan has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Ph\u1ea7n Lan."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.3 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.3,
"max_prob_pct": 37.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Albania",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.9,
"lead": "The model rates Albania considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.44,
"edge_pp": -4.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"market_prob_pct": 40.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.49,
"edge_pp": -4.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.66,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.15,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.93,
"edge_pp": 8.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.33,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 28.4,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ph\u1ea7n Lan \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ph\u1ea7n Lan (28.4%).",
"However, Ph\u1ea7n Lan has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.9%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Albania, Market \u2192 Ph\u1ea7n Lan, while Ph\u1ea7n Lan odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.5,
"closing_odds": 3.39,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.5,
"entry_odds": 3.39,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 18m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ph\u1ea7n Lan (11.9%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.24",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.44 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 18m",
"pick_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.38,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "albania",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Albania",
"away_team_id": 778,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/778.webp",
"away_team_name": "Albania",
"away_team_public_id": "2TnUwDORs7wZ7y",
"away_team_slug": "albania",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528932,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"home_team_display_name": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"home_team_id": 1099,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1099.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan",
"home_team_public_id": "58C1YaibWvJytn",
"home_team_slug": "finland",
"ht.home_team_slug": "finland",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "UEFA Nations League",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 13:00:00",
"public_id": "0jo15LSAaa2sRq",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Helsinki",
"venue_name": "Helsinki Olympic Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2598,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": 0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4045
},
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"p_final": 0.3072
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2799,
"best_odd": 3.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0125,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4045
},
"model_prob": 0.2668,
"p_final": 0.299
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4199,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.0819,
"implied_prob": 0.4045,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.3115,
"home": 0.4045
},
"model_prob": 0.3599,
"p_final": 0.3858
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.39,
"edge": 0.0783,
"ev": 0.2655,
"implied_prob": 0.295,
"model_prob": 0.3733
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.09,
"edge": -0.0568,
"ev": -0.1756,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"model_prob": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0603,
"ev": -0.1435,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3599
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1466,
"alpha_yes": 0.1333,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.273,
"edge_yes": 0.273,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5257,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.14,
"ev_yes": 0.5309,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0017,
"implied_no": 0.544,
"implied_yes": 0.456,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1466,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0398,
"ev": -0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.5428,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5029
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1333,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0362,
"ev": 0.0017,
"implied_prob": 0.4572,
"model_prob": 0.729,
"p_final": 0.4934
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5029,
"p_final_yes": 0.4934,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.09,
"alpha_under": 0.1238,
"best_over_odd": 2.57,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.515,
"edge_over": 0.3512,
"edge_under": -0.3502,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.8761,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0227,
"ev_under": -0.5745,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1226,
"implied_over": 0.3788,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3773,
"implied_under": 0.6212,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6227,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.09,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0317,
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4091
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.515,
"edge": -0.0435,
"ev": -0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5791
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4091,
"p_final_under": 0.5791,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8761,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.8761,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.8761,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8761,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 84,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 37.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (37.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +87.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +87.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+87.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Albania).",
"Decision strength: 7.7/10"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0414,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2949852507374631,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.9,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 52%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.729,
"draw_prob": 0.2668,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3733,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.31
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": 0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Albania"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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},
"p_final": 0.4934,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0017,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
"edge": 0.273,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0317,
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"over": {
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"edge": 0.0317,
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},
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"under": {
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.3512,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528932,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.8761,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3733,
"draw": 0.2668,
"home": 0.3599
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Albania",
"home": "Ph\u1ea7n Lan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.799441,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.8761,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0414,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.39,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3733,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2949852507374631,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2655,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528932,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:21:37.047838+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Đăng ký ngay
UEFA Nations League — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Bỉ | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ý | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bỉ | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Ý | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Pháp | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pháp | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 2 | Bỉ | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 3 | Ý | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 4 | Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ | 3 | — | — | — | 0 |
