Stenungsund vs Ahlafors Statistics & Analysis

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.22
4 1.38
xG Accuracy: 35%
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay

Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian

Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.

  • Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
  • Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
  • Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
  • 1X2 Ahlafors Ahlafors ✔ Chính xác
  • Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Không đúng

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1760091

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Ahlafors win · Stenungsund 0–4 Ahlafors
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Thông tin thị trường

Đọc bổ sung sau lựa chọn chính: feed đóng kèo ưu tiên đã thay đổi so với mô hình thế nào.

Tóm tắt thị trường

Thị trường khá ổn định trước giờ bóng lăn. Không thấy dịch chuyển implied đáng kể giữa PRE30 và PRE1 trên snapshot ưu tiên.

Dù biến động muộn hạn chế, mô hình vẫn định giá Vẽ tranh (1X2),Ahlafors (1X2),Dưới 2,5 bàn cao hơn rõ rệt so với implied từ các snapshot đóng kèo — đây là bức tranh tĩnh «mô hình so với giá», không phải câu chuyện đuổi dòng muộn.

Mô hình vẫn cao hơn implied đóng kèo ở Dưới 2,5 bàn khoảng 12.6 điểm phần trăm — tín hiệu lệch giá rõ nhất trên trang này.

Mô hình so với xác suất ngầm lúc đóng kèo

Thị trường Mô hình % Ngầm đóng kèo % Chênh (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 31.5 37.4 -5.9
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 29.5 24.7 +4.8
Ahlafors (1X2) 39.0 37.9 +1.1
Trên 2,5 bàn 48.2 60.8 -12.6
Dưới 2,5 bàn 51.8 39.2 +12.6
Ý nghĩa đơn giản

Nói dễ hiểu: mô hình khoảng 51.8% cho Dưới 2,5 bàn, trong khi snapshot đóng kèo ngầm khoảng 39.2%. Chênh lệch — khoảng 12.6 điểm phần trăm — là khoảng cách mô hình–thị trường lớn nhất được nhấn mạnh trên trang này.

Giải thích nhanh: «ngầm đóng kèo» là xác suất suy ra từ kèo chụp cuối (sau khi bỏ vig đơn giản). «Chênh (pp)» = % mô hình trừ % ngầm đó, tính theo điểm phần trăm (pp).

Biến động kèo trước giờ bóng lăn

Một nhà cái ưu tiên mỗi snapshot (không phải toàn thị trường). Đường dẫn chụp: PRE30 → PRE1 · Nhà cái: Pinnacle

Trong ngoặc trên cột: Closing = snapshot đầu tiên khả dụng theo PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early = snapshot đầu tiên trong PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 khác Closing.

Kèo chi tiết được gấp bên dưới — biến động implied (đã bỏ vig) không đáng kể.

Xem bảng đầy đủ từng dòng
Thị trường Sớm (PRE30) Sát giờ (PRE1) Δ ngầm (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 2.38 2.38 0.0
Vẽ tranh (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Ahlafors (1X2) 2.35 2.35 0.0
Trên 2,5 bàn 1.5 1.5 0.0
Dưới 2,5 bàn 2.33 2.33 0.0

Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "e58588492f65bd0275418ed1b2ba066dca69695d19020aaacfe1df5255fe293e",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3897,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.456,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2954,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.57,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.18,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.22,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3148,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Ahlafors",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Ahlafors"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.38,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Ahlafors",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0109,
        "edge_gap": 0.0747,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3788,
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 39.0,
          "draw": 29.5,
          "home": 31.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.35
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.35,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Ahlafors Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.64,
        "market_odds": 2.35,
        "model_odds": 2.57,
        "overround": 12.3,
        "prob_edge": -3.6,
        "value_pct": -8.6,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 70.5,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.38,
        "home_expected": 1.22,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Stenungsund or Draw",
            "prob": 61.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Stenungsund or Ahlafors",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Ahlafors",
            "prob": 68.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Stenungsund or Ahlafors",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 39.0,
        "draw_pct": 29.5,
        "home_pct": 31.5,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Ahlafors"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 6.2,
        "implied_prob": 27.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 29.5,
        "odds": 3.6
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Ahlafors",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Stenungsund",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.4,
          "gap_pp": -5.91,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 31.49
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 24.72,
          "gap_pp": 4.82,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.54
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.88,
          "gap_pp": 1.09,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 38.97
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.84,
          "gap_pp": -12.64,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.16,
          "gap_pp": 12.64,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.38,
          "early": 2.38,
          "implied_closing_pct": 37.4,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 37.4,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.6,
          "early": 3.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 24.72,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 24.72,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.35,
          "early": 2.35,
          "implied_closing_pct": 37.88,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 37.88,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.5,
          "early": 1.5,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.84,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.84,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.33,
          "early": 2.33,
          "implied_closing_pct": 39.16,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.16,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 12.6,
        "kind": "ou_u"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.22,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2625,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -26.2,
          "text": "-26.2%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.3209,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 32.1,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3209,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10438.81,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1993,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 19.9,
          "text": "+19.9%"
        },
        "ev_yes": -0.184,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.4,
          "text": "-18.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1993,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "sort_key": 10179.37,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0986,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.9,
          "text": "-9.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3788,
        "max_ev": -0.0616,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -6.2,
          "text": "-6.2%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "side_label": "Ahlafors",
        "sort_key": 1784.6,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +11.9%",
        "alert_team": "Ahlafors",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 5.9,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
        "hero_label": "Stenungsund",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.9,
        "market_team": "Ahlafors",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
        "model_team": "Ahlafors",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 62,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.92,
          "fair_prob": 31.48,
          "label": "Stenungsund",
          "market_prob": 37.4,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.82,
          "fair_prob": 29.54,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 24.72,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.09,
          "fair_prob": 38.97,
          "label": "Ahlafors",
          "market_prob": 37.88,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.09,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 61.29,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.09,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 38.71,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.99,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 63.39,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.99,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 36.61,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -5.92,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Stenungsund",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.4,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Ahlafors"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.92,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Ahlafors",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Ahlafors, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Stenungsund remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
        "hero_label": "Stenungsund",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Ahlafors odds lengthened \u2191 +11.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Ahlafors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stenungsund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Stenungsund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Ahlafors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Stenungsund above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Ahlafors has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.92,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -5.92,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Stenungsund",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.4,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.82,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.72,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.09,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ahlafors",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.88,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ahlafors (37.9%).",
          "However, Ahlafors has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.9%, 8/12).",
          "The model and market both lean Ahlafors, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Stenungsund remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 42.02,
        "closing_odds": 2.38,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 42.02,
        "entry_odds": 2.38,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.35,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Ahlafors (11.9%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.45 \u2192 2.04 \u2192 2.35",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.45"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.04"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.35"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ahlafors \u2191 +11.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ahlafors \u2191 +11.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 62,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "current_odds": 2.35,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
        "steam_score": 62,
        "steam_team_name": "Ahlafors",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 12570,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12570.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ahlafors",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1510605,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 12575,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12575.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Stenungsund",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 592,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/592.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - Norra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4426,
            "best_odd": 2.35,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0048,
            "ev": -0.0986,
            "implied_prob": 0.3788,
            "model_prob": 0.3897,
            "p_final": 0.3836
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2783,
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0134,
            "ev": -0.0616,
            "implied_prob": 0.2472,
            "model_prob": 0.2954,
            "p_final": 0.2607
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4101,
            "best_odd": 2.38,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0242,
            "ev": -0.1676,
            "implied_prob": 0.374,
            "model_prob": 0.3149,
            "p_final": 0.3498
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0899,
          "edge_yes": -0.0899,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1993,
          "ev_yes": -0.184,
          "implied_no": 0.3661,
          "implied_yes": 0.6339,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.53,
          "best_under_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_over": -0.1309,
          "edge_under": 0.1309,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2625,
          "ev_under": 0.3209,
          "implied_over": 0.6129,
          "implied_under": 0.3871,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2954,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0048,
          "ev": -0.0986,
          "implied_prob": 0.3788,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3897,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ahlafors"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0899,
          "ev": 0.1993,
          "implied_prob": 0.3661,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1309,
          "ev": 0.3209,
          "implied_prob": 0.3871,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1510605,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3897,
        "draw": 0.2954,
        "home": 0.3149
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1993,
        "implied_prob": 0.3661,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1993,
          "implied_prob": 0.3661,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ahlafors",
        "home": "Stenungsund"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.116358,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3209,
        "implied_prob": 0.3871,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1510605,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T16:59:18.642056+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Stenungsund & Ahlafors!

Mở khóa phân tích chuyên sâu, mẹo cá cược độc quyền và dự đoán trận đấu với dịch vụ đăng ký cao cấp của chúng tôi.

Đăng ký ngay
Quay lại Thống kê
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra GötalandBảng xếp hạng
# Đội Tr T H B Đ
1 Husqvarna 20 17 3 0 54
2 Skara 21 14 5 2 47
3 IFK Skövde 21 12 5 4 41
4 Ahlafors 20 9 7 4 34
5 Grebbestad 21 10 3 8 33
6 Herrestads 20 8 7 5 31
7 Vänersborgs FK 21 8 4 9 28
8 Stenungsund 21 7 6 8 27
9 Motala 21 5 8 8 23
10 Kumla 21 5 7 9 22
11 Lidköping 20 4 6 10 18
12 Tord 21 2 9 10 15
13 IF Karlstad II 21 2 7 12 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 21 2 3 16 9
# Đội Tr BT BB +/- Đ
1 Husqvarna 20 50 15 +35 54
2 Skara 21 46 22 +24 47
3 Ahlafors 20 45 24 +21 34
4 IFK Skövde 21 38 24 +14 41
5 Herrestads 20 38 35 +3 31
6 Stenungsund 21 36 29 +7 27
7 Grebbestad 21 36 31 +5 33
8 Motala 21 28 29 -1 23
9 Vänersborgs FK 21 28 34 -6 28
10 Tord 21 23 36 -13 15
11 IF Karlstad II 21 23 41 -18 13
12 Lidköping 20 21 38 -17 18
13 Vänersborgs IF 21 21 58 -37 9
14 Kumla 21 20 37 -17 22