The model missed the final outcome (Husqvarna win 1–0).
The model had projected IFK Skövde at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Thị trường được theo dõi so với kết quả toàn thời gian
Cấp dự đoán
C
Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 (1 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 IFK Skövde Husqvarna ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Chính xác
Mô hình so với thị trường đóng cửa
| kết quả | Người mẫu | Thị trường đóng cửa | Sự khác biệt | Tín hiệu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Husqvarna | 31.0% | 50.0% | -18.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.8% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| IFK Skövde | 39.5% | 24.2% | +15.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Husqvarna's win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Hết thời gian, kết quả là Husqvarna win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Husqvarna than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned IFK Skövde; match finished Husqvarna
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IFK Skövde by 18.9 percentage points (58.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Nhà cái cao cấp stake: người mới có thể dùng mã khuyến mãi FHn2uDc1. Đăng ký ngay
Dòng thời gian dự đoán
Dự đoán này chuyển từ dự báo sang đánh giá toàn thời gian như thế nào.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Husqvarna 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · IFK Skövde 39.5%
- xG · Husqvarna 1.21 — IFK Skövde 1.39
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Husqvarna 1.78 · Draw 3.43 · IFK Skövde 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Husqvarna 49.8% · Draw 25.9% · IFK Skövde 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Husqvarna 1.80 · Draw 3.49 · IFK Skövde 3.71
- Implied 1X2 · Husqvarna 50.0% · Draw 25.8% · IFK Skövde 24.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Husqvarna win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Ảnh chụp lịch sử
Bị treo khi bắt đầu — kết quả đầu ra của mô hình như trước khi trận đấu bắt đầu.
Phán quyết lịch sử:
Monitor
Quyết định lịch sử
Monitor
kết quả
Missed
Số liệu trước trận đấu (bối cảnh lịch sử)
Độ tin cậy dự đoán
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
Chứng cớ
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
1/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Husqvarna win · Husqvarna 1–0 IFK Skövde
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Xem lại câu hỏi thường gặp
- Dự đoán đó chính xác đến mức nào?
- Trang này xếp loại các thị trường định hướng (1X2, Trên/Dưới 2,5, BTTS) so với kết quả toàn thời gian. Mức dự đoán phản ánh có bao nhiêu thị trường được theo dõi phù hợp với thực tế.
- Độ chính xác xG đo lường điều gì?
- Độ chính xác của xG so sánh hồ sơ bàn thắng dự kiến trước trận đấu của mô hình với tỷ số thực tế — chứ không phải liệu mọi thị trường có thành công hay không. Đánh giá mang tính định hướng mạnh mẽ có thể cùng tồn tại với điểm chính xác xG vừa phải.
- Tại sao tỷ số chính xác không được dự đoán?
- Các kết quả có tỷ số chính xác là các kết quả có xác suất thấp ngay cả khi mô hình đọc tốt hồ sơ trận đấu. Chúng tôi nêu bật các thùng điểm cao nhất cho ngữ cảnh; thiếu dòng chính xác không làm mất hiệu lực của đánh giá định hướng.
- Điều này có cải thiện bản ghi AI không?
- Mỗi trận đấu kết thúc sẽ được ghi vào hệ thống xác thực của chúng tôi. Tỷ lệ trúng tổng hợp và nghiên cứu CLV được xuất bản riêng - trang này là đường dẫn kiểm tra mỗi trận đấu.
Dự đoán chỉ nhằm mục đích thông tin. Luôn đánh bạc có trách nhiệm và trong giới hạn của bạn. Hiệu suất trong quá khứ không đảm bảo kết quả trong tương lai.
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"home_win_prob": 0.3103,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Husqvarna or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
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},
"away_xg": 1.39,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"pick": "No",
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.39,
"home_expected": 1.21,
"scores": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Husqvarna or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
"label": "Husqvarna or IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"prob": 69.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Husqvarna or IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Away",
"market": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde Win",
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"odds": 3.71
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:59:37",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 16:30:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Husqvarna",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.14,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"kind": "1x2_h",
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
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{
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{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "1-2",
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{
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},
"home_xg": 1.21,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0173,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+19.1%"
},
"featured": true,
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10322.26,
"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"edge": 0.0082,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
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"no": {
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"value_side": "no",
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 5.1,
"text": "+5.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.8,
"text": "-14.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0511,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10045.99,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0305,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0305,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4651,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"sort_key": 10027.45,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"alert_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.95,
"hero_label": "Husqvarna",
"market_prob_pct": 24.2,
"market_team": "Husqvarna",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Sk\u00f6vde at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Sk\u00f6vde as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1510674 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0305,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4651,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.95,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.39,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.21,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.21 \u00b7 Away xG 1.39 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"steam_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Sk\u00f6vde at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Sk\u00f6vde as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1510674 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0305,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4651,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Husqvarna 1.21 xG vs IFK Sk\u00f6vde 1.39 \u2192 IFK Sk\u00f6vde 39.5%",
"Market: Husqvarna ~24.2% implied",
"Market Steam: IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u2193 -4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans IFK Sk\u00f6vde, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -18.95,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Husqvarna",
"market_prob": 49.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.21,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"market_prob": 24.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.16,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.16,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.71,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.71,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Husqvarna",
"market_prob_pct": 49.98,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Husqvarna\u0027s win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.3,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+15.3 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Husqvarna 1.21 xG vs IFK Sk\u00f6vde 1.39 \u2192 IFK Sk\u00f6vde 39.5%",
"Market: Husqvarna ~24.2% implied",
"Market Steam: IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u2193 -4.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans IFK Sk\u00f6vde, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.95,
"hero_label": "Husqvarna",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde odds shortened \u2193 -4.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on IFK Sk\u00f6vde, with odds shortening by 4.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Husqvarna than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Husqvarna than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on IFK Sk\u00f6vde, with odds shortening by 4.4%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Husqvarna more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, IFK Sk\u00f6vde has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.4%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Husqvarna",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Husqvarna higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -18.95,
"edge_pp": -18.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Husqvarna",
"market_prob_pct": 49.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.73,
"edge_pp": 3.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.78,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.21,
"edge_pp": 15.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"market_prob_pct": 24.25,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Husqvarna (24.2%).",
"IFK Sk\u00f6vde has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.4%, 1/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 IFK Sk\u00f6vde, Market \u2192 Husqvarna, Recent sharp money \u2192 IFK Sk\u00f6vde.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 55.56,
"closing_odds": 1.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 55.56,
"entry_odds": 1.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on IFK Sk\u00f6vde (swing 3.82 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.25) \u2014 net 4.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.71",
"3.48",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.82 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 9m",
"pick_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.82"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.71,
3.65,
3.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.1 18.7,0.0 37.3,2.3 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 3.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ifk-skovde",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"away_team_id": 16605,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16605.webp",
"away_team_name": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"away_team_public_id": "3CPpNv8R1JTpXq",
"away_team_slug": "ifk-skovde",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1510674,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Husqvarna",
"home_team_id": 6675,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6675.webp",
"home_team_name": "Husqvarna",
"home_team_public_id": "1x3MBOOZt9TquX",
"home_team_slug": "husqvarna",
"ht.home_team_slug": "husqvarna",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Division 2 - Norra G\u00f6taland",
"league_id": 592,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/592.webp",
"league_name": "Division 2 - Norra G\u00f6taland",
"league_public_id": "2UtdERe3DVD3nL",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 17:00:00",
"public_id": "3GQr8i5qaiXG1p",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Huskvarna",
"venue_name": "Vapenvallen"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2314,
"best_odd": 3.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0305,
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2425,
"draw": 0.2578,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.2778
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.2578,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2425,
"draw": 0.2578,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.2682
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4295,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0814,
"ev": -0.2469,
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2425,
"draw": 0.2578,
"home": 0.4998
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.4184
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.71,
"edge": 0.1254,
"ev": 0.4652,
"implied_prob": 0.2695,
"model_prob": 0.3949
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": 0.0287,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.2452,
"ev": -0.4414,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3103
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1667,
"alpha_yes": 0.2293,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0471,
"edge_yes": -0.0471,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0511,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"ev_yes": -0.1475,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0997,
"implied_no": 0.4099,
"implied_yes": 0.5901,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1667,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4161
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2293,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0997,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5808
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4161,
"p_final_yes": 0.5808,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2146,
"alpha_under": 0.1951,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.14,
"edge_over": -0.0916,
"edge_under": 0.0916,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1119,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0442,
"implied_over": 0.5736,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5707,
"implied_under": 0.4264,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4293,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1119,
"implied_prob": 0.5707,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5516
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1951,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4466
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5516,
"p_final_under": 0.4466,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4652,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.9,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4652,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates IFK Sk\u00f6vde at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 24.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies IFK Sk\u00f6vde as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side IFK Sk\u00f6vde \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1510674 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (IFK Sk\u00f6vde), but pricing still diverges by 18.9 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0305,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4651,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0353,
"ev": 0.0305,
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1667,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"market_prob": 0.4079,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1667,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0082,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4161
},
"p_final": 0.4161,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0638,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2293,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0997,
"implied_prob": 0.5921,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5808
}
},
"edge": 0.0471,
"ev": 0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4099,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1951,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4293,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2146,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1119,
"implied_prob": 0.5707,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5516
},
"p_final": 0.4466,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1951,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.4293,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4466
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0916,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1510674,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3949,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3103
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "IFK Sk\u00f6vde",
"home": "Husqvarna"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0305,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 3.71,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2695417789757412,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4651,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1510674,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:59:39.642376+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 60 |
| 2 | Skara | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 6 | Herrestads | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 9 | Kumla | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Motala | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 12 | Tord | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 54 | 18 | +36 | 60 |
| 2 | Ahlafors | 23 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 40 |
| 3 | Skara | 23 | 48 | 25 | +23 | 50 |
| 4 | Grebbestad | 23 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 39 |
| 5 | Herrestads | 22 | 41 | 38 | +3 | 34 |
| 6 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 41 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 28 |
| 9 | Motala | 22 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 24 |
| 11 | Tord | 22 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 18 |
| 12 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 24 | 65 | -41 | 9 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 13 |
| 14 | Kumla | 23 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
