Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.38,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4589,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3072,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.18,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.26,
      "fair_odds_home": 4.28,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.92,
      "home_win_prob": 0.2339,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.38,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0715,
        "edge_gap": 0.1521,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5306,
        "model_prob": 0.4591,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 45.9,
          "draw": 30.7,
          "home": 23.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.76
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.76,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al-Ahli Jeddah Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.88,
        "market_odds": 1.76,
        "model_odds": 2.18,
        "overround": 7.1,
        "prob_edge": -10.9,
        "value_pct": -19.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 16,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 60.1,
        "no_prob": 53.3,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 53.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 46.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.38,
        "home_expected": 0.92,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 13.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.7
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 10.0
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al Taawon or Draw",
            "prob": 54.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
            "prob": 69.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
            "prob": 76.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah",
        "pick_prob": 76.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.9,
        "draw_pct": 30.7,
        "home_pct": 23.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.3,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 40.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 59.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.3,
        "under_prob": 59.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 21.0,
        "implied_prob": 25.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 30.7,
        "odds": 3.94
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 13.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.92,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2728,
        "ev_under": 0.2516,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2516,
        "over_prob": 40.4,
        "sort_key": 10376.44,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 59.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1086,
        "ev_yes": -0.2061,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1086,
        "no_prob": 53.3,
        "sort_key": 10097.74,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 46.7
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1335,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5306,
        "max_ev": 0.008,
        "model_prob": 0.4591,
        "side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
        "sort_key": 5206.4,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2929,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2929.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436199,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2936,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2936.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Taawon",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-07 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
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          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5356,
            "best_odd": 1.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0383,
            "ev": -0.1335,
            "implied_prob": 0.5306,
            "model_prob": 0.4591,
            "p_final": 0.4923
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2685,
            "best_odd": 3.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0188,
            "ev": 0.008,
            "implied_prob": 0.237,
            "model_prob": 0.307,
            "p_final": 0.2558
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1995,
            "best_odd": 4.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0003,
            "ev": -0.0648,
            "implied_prob": 0.2323,
            "model_prob": 0.2339,
            "p_final": 0.2326
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "n_bookmakers": 7,
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          "implied_over": 0.5369,
          "implied_under": 0.4631,
          "n_bookmakers": 7,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.3,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
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      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.467,
          "draw_prob": 0.307,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4591,
          "over_prob": 0.404,
          "total_xg": 2.3,
          "under_prob": 0.596,
          "xg_diff": 0.46
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.5306,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4591,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Al-Ahli Jeddah"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0813,
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          "model_prob": 0.533,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.4631,
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1436199,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2516,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4591,
        "draw": 0.307,
        "home": 0.2339
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1086,
        "implied_prob": 0.4517,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.533,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1086,
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          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al-Ahli Jeddah",
        "home": "Al Taawon"
      },
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        "composite_score": 0.104968,
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        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.596,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1436199,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-07T16:59:05.911014+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}