NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.03,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2945,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3212,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.4,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.11,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.6,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.21,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3843,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : NK Varazdin or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "NK Varazdin"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.03,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "NK Varazdin",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0626,
        "edge_gap": 0.0631,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4471,
        "model_prob": 0.3845,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 29.4,
          "draw": 32.1,
          "home": 38.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.13
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.13,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "NK Varazdin Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.24,
        "market_odds": 2.13,
        "model_odds": 2.6,
        "overround": 5.0,
        "prob_edge": -8.5,
        "value_pct": -18.1,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 64.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 70.2,
        "no_prob": 53.1,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 53.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 46.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.03,
        "home_expected": 1.21,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 11.0
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          {
            "away": 0,
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            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 10.6
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "NK Varazdin or Draw",
            "prob": 70.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "NK Varazdin or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
            "prob": 67.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
            "prob": 61.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "NK Varazdin or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 70.5
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 29.4,
        "draw_pct": 32.1,
        "home_pct": 38.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "NK Varazdin"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.24,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 38.8,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.24,
        "under_prob": 61.2
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 12.0,
        "implied_prob": 28.7,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 32.1,
        "odds": 3.49
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 13.3
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.21,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2861,
        "ev_under": 0.2546,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2546,
        "over_prob": 38.8,
        "sort_key": 10379.14,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 61.2,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_no": 0.1576,
        "ev_yes": -0.2168,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1576,
        "no_prob": 53.1,
        "sort_key": 10141.84,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 46.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1021,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4471,
        "max_ev": -0.0006,
        "model_prob": 0.3845,
        "side_label": "NK Varazdin",
        "sort_key": 2199.952,
        "tier": "pass"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 819.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 13.3
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1017,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1017.webp",
      "away_team_name": "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
      "country_name": "Croatia",
      "fixture_id": 1384088,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1483,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1483.webp",
      "home_team_name": "NK Varazdin",
      "league_country": "Croatia",
      "league_id": 210,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
      "league_name": "HNL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2937,
            "best_odd": 3.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0041,
            "ev": -0.0338,
            "implied_prob": 0.2801,
            "model_prob": 0.294,
            "p_final": 0.2842
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2781,
            "best_odd": 3.49,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0135,
            "ev": -0.0006,
            "implied_prob": 0.2729,
            "model_prob": 0.3215,
            "p_final": 0.2864
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4078,
            "best_odd": 2.13,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0255,
            "ev": -0.1021,
            "implied_prob": 0.4471,
            "model_prob": 0.3845,
            "p_final": 0.4216
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.0942,
          "edge_yes": -0.0942,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5632,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "ev_over": -0.2861,
          "ev_under": 0.2546,
          "implied_over": 0.5252,
          "implied_under": 0.4748,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.24,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2546,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.469,
          "draw_prob": 0.3215,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3845,
          "over_prob": 0.388,
          "total_xg": 2.24,
          "under_prob": 0.612,
          "xg_diff": 0.18
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0255,
          "ev": -0.1021,
          "implied_prob": 0.4471,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3845,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "NK Varazdin"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0942,
          "ev": 0.1576,
          "implied_prob": 0.4368,
          "model_prob": 0.531,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1372,
          "ev": 0.2546,
          "implied_prob": 0.4748,
          "model_prob": 0.612,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1384088,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2546,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.294,
        "draw": 0.3215,
        "home": 0.3845
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1576,
        "implied_prob": 0.4368,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.531,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb",
        "home": "NK Varazdin"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "implied_prob": 0.4748,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.612,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1384088,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T14:56:07.665711+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}