Вильхивцы vs Шахтёр Донецк Statistics & Analysis

Вильхивцы

Sep 17, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.18

3 1.42

xG Accuracy: 47%

Шахтёр Донецк

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Отслеживаемые рынки против результата матча

Каждая строка сравнивает предматчевый уклон модели с результатом матча.

Рынок Прогноз Результат Исход
Тотал больше / меньше 2.5 Тотал меньше 2.5 Тотал больше 2.5 (3 голы) ✖ Неверно
Обе забьют Обе забьют (BTTS) Да Нет ✖ Неверно
1X2 Шахтёр Донецк Шахтёр Донецк ✔ Верно
Инсайты по точному счету 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Неверно

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 07:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6747252

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Шахтёр Донецк win · Вильхивцы 0–3 Шахтёр Донецк

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI обзор матча

AI краткий обзор матча

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Кубок Украины
Fixture: Вильхивцы vs Шахтёр Донецк
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
xG (showing): Вильхивцы 1.18 — Шахтёр Донецк 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Историческая рекомендация

Историческое решение: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Исход: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Факторы риска, учтенные до начала матча

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).