Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф vs Маннсвёрт Statistics & Analysis

Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф

Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.23

0 1.37

xG Accuracy: 56%

Маннсвёрт

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Отслеживаемые рынки против результата матча

Каждая строка сравнивает предматчевый уклон модели с результатом матча.

Рынок Прогноз Результат Исход
Тотал больше / меньше 2.5 Тотал меньше 2.5 Тотал меньше 2.5 (2 голы) ✔ Верно
Обе забьют Обе забьют (BTTS) Да Нет ✖ Неверно
1X2 Маннсвёрт Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф ✖ Неверно
Инсайты по точному счету 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Неверно

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228615

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф win · Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф 2–0 Маннсвёрт

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI обзор матча

AI краткий обзор матча

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Товарищеские матчи клубов
Fixture: Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф vs Маннсвёрт
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.1% · Draw 29.3% · Away 38.6%
xG (showing): Герасдорф-Штаммерсдорф 1.23 — Маннсвёрт 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Историческая рекомендация

Историческое решение: No Primary Bet

Исход: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Факторы риска, учтенные до начала матча

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).