Statistik / Bola Sepak / Meksiko. Liga MX Femenil / Puebla Wanita vs Querétaro W

Puebla Wanita vs Querétaro W Statistics & Analysis

Sep 13, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.31
6 1.29
xG Accuracy: 23%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Puebla Wanita Querétaro W ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-6 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7457101

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Querétaro W win · Puebla Wanita 2–6 Querétaro W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Puebla Wanita (1X2),Lukis (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 14.6 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Puebla Wanita (1X2) 35.6 34.0 +1.6
Lukis (1X2) 29.7 25.3 +4.4
Querétaro W (1X2) 34.7 40.7 -6.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 62.8 -14.6
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 37.2 +14.6
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 51.8% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 37.2%. Bezanya — kira-kira 14.6 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Puebla Wanita (1X2) 2.73 2.73 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
Querétaro W (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.49 1.49 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.52 2.52 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        },
        "ev_available": true,
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        },
        "ev_yes": -0.1825,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.2,
          "text": "-18.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
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        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "no_bet",
        "authority_note": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
        "consensus_odds": 2.73,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "ev": -0.0527,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -5.3,
          "text": "-5.3%"
        },
        "featured": false,
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        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0267,
        "max_ev_display": {
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        "model_prob": 0.3559,
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        "show_primary_label": false,
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        "featured": false,
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.6
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "8/8",
        "alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -9.7%",
        "alert_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 6.0,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.01,
        "hero_label": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "market_prob_pct": 34.0,
        "market_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
        "model_team": "Puebla Wanita",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 6.0,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 6.0,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita."
          },
          "alignment_key": "conflict",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.0,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
          "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
          "execution_confidence": 35,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puebla Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Puebla Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 1.6,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Execution confidence below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Puebla Wanita",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_conflict",
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_conflict",
              "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
              "name": "Market Conflict",
              "short": "Market Conflict",
              "subtype": "drift_against_model",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": false,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "79 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "35 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "conflict"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 6,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
            "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
            "Execution confidence below 65"
          ],
          "reliability_score": 79,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market steam conflicts with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.0527,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
            "consensus_odds": 2.73,
            "disagreement_label": "Normal",
            "disagreement_level": "normal",
            "implied_prob": 0.34,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.0284,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.8%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": -3.0,
            "reasons": [
              "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "flat",
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "separation_score": -20,
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.02
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "8/8",
        "breadth_ratio": 1.0,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 68,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam conflicts with model",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 22.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 10.0,
            "steam_coherence": 0.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 79,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 6.01,
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "max_gap_pp": 6.01,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.29,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.31,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.31,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
        "steam_conflicts": true,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
        "steam_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 32,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 32,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 6.0,
            "key": "conflict",
            "label": "Disagree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
            "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 6.0,
              "key": "conflict",
              "label": "Disagree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
              "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita."
            },
            "alignment_key": "conflict",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
            "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
            "execution_confidence": 35,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puebla Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Puebla Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 1.6,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Execution confidence below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Puebla Wanita",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_conflict",
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "market_quality",
                  "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                  "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                  "tone": "warn"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_conflict",
                "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
                "name": "Market Conflict",
                "short": "Market Conflict",
                "subtype": "drift_against_model",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": false,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "79 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "35 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "conflict"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 6,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
              "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
              "Execution confidence below 65"
            ],
            "reliability_score": 79,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market steam conflicts with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.0527,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
              "consensus_odds": 2.73,
              "disagreement_label": "Normal",
              "disagreement_level": "normal",
              "implied_prob": 0.34,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3559,
              "raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.0284,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.8%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": -3.0,
              "reasons": [
                "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "flat",
                "block_value_alert": true,
                "separation_score": -20,
                "strength_delta": -2.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.02
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Puebla Wanita 1.31 xG vs Quer\u00e9taro W 1.29 \u2192 Puebla Wanita 35.6%",
            "Market: Quer\u00e9taro W ~34.0% implied",
            "Market Steam: Quer\u00e9taro W \u2193 -9.7%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model favours Puebla Wanita, but sharp money moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.64,
          "fair_prob": 35.64,
          "label": "Puebla Wanita",
          "market_prob": 34.0,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.36,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 25.29,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.01,
          "fair_prob": 34.7,
          "label": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
          "market_prob": 40.71,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.48,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 61.68,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.48,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 38.32,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.71,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 64.21,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.71,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 35.79,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -6.01,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "market_prob_pct": 40.71,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Quer\u00e9taro W"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Quer\u00e9taro W\u0027s win probability at 40.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.01,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Puebla Wanita",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Conflicts with model",
            "positive": false
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 34.0,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 1.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 1.6,
            "label": "High",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 79,
          "reliability_tier": "moderate",
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Monitoring Confidence",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 32,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 32,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Puebla Wanita 1.31 xG vs Quer\u00e9taro W 1.29 \u2192 Puebla Wanita 35.6%",
              "Market: Quer\u00e9taro W ~34.0% implied",
              "Market Steam: Quer\u00e9taro W \u2193 -9.7%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model favours Puebla Wanita, but sharp money moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -6.01,
        "hero_label": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Quer\u00e9taro W odds shortened \u2193 -9.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Quer\u00e9taro W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Quer\u00e9taro W.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Quer\u00e9taro W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Quer\u00e9taro W."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Quer\u00e9taro W above the current fair estimate.",
            "Recent line movement on Quer\u00e9taro W (\u2193 -9.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Quer\u00e9taro W."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 6.01,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
          "largest_gap_pp": -6.0,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Quer\u00e9taro W higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 1.64,
            "edge_pp": 1.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Puebla Wanita",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.0,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 4.36,
            "edge_pp": 4.36,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 25.29,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -6.01,
            "edge_pp": -6.01,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.71,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Quer\u00e9taro W.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Quer\u00e9taro W (34.0%).",
          "However, Quer\u00e9taro W has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.7%, 8/8).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Puebla Wanita, Market \u2192 Quer\u00e9taro W, Recent sharp money \u2192 Quer\u00e9taro W.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 43.86,
        "closing_odds": 2.28,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 43.86,
        "entry_odds": 2.28,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 8,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -18.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.9%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -16.9
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -16.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -14.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -12.0
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -9.7
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -5.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -5.5
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 8,
        "breadth_display": "8/8",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.15,
        "is_drift": false,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 9.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 27m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Quer\u00e9taro W (9.7%, 8/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.38",
            "2.26",
            "2.15"
          ],
          "display": "2.72 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.15",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 27m",
          "pick_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.72"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.15"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.15"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.38,
            2.28,
            2.15
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,7.8 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "down",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.38"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.15"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.38"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.15"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.38,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Quer\u00e9taro W \u2193 -9.7% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Quer\u00e9taro W \u2193 -9.7% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 2.15,
          "is_drift": false,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
          "open_odds": 2.38,
          "summary": "Market moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W while the model still favours another side.",
          "team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
          "tone": "against"
        },
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/8",
        "current_odds": 2.15,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
        "open_odds": 2.38,
        "pick_team": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "steam_score": 67,
        "steam_team_name": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "queretaro-w",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
      "away_team_id": 14871,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14871.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
      "away_team_public_id": "3wAnnlCml7gAEx",
      "away_team_slug": "queretaro-w",
      "country_code": "MX",
      "country_display_name": "Mexico",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
      "country_id": 107,
      "country_name": "Mexico",
      "fixture_id": 1603358,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Mexico",
      "home_team_display_name": "Puebla Wanita",
      "home_team_id": 14882,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14882.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Puebla Wanita",
      "home_team_public_id": "15Wle1eiClebkc",
      "home_team_slug": "puebla-w",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "puebla-w",
      "league_country": "Mexico",
      "league_country_display": "Mexico",
      "league_display_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
      "league_id": 673,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/673.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
      "league_public_id": "34EclHhIs9gBvN",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
      "public_id": "3GAoobM7D18G5p",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Puebla",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4096,
            "best_odd": 2.28,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0245,
            "ev": -0.1277,
            "implied_prob": 0.4071,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4071,
              "draw": 0.2529,
              "home": 0.34
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3826
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2803,
            "best_odd": 3.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0123,
            "ev": -0.0267,
            "implied_prob": 0.2529,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4071,
              "draw": 0.2529,
              "home": 0.34
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.2652
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4392,
            "best_odd": 2.73,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.007,
            "ev": -0.0527,
            "implied_prob": 0.34,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4071,
              "draw": 0.2529,
              "home": 0.34
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.347
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 2.28,
            "edge": -0.0913,
            "ev": -0.2082,
            "implied_prob": 0.4386,
            "model_prob": 0.3473
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.67,
            "edge": 0.0243,
            "ev": 0.0892,
            "implied_prob": 0.2725,
            "model_prob": 0.2968
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.73,
            "edge": -0.0104,
            "ev": -0.0283,
            "implied_prob": 0.3663,
            "model_prob": 0.3559
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.1537,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2114,
          "best_no_odd": 2.7,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": 0.0971,
          "edge_yes": -0.0971,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.2285,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0498,
          "ev_yes": -0.1825,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1171,
          "implied_no": 0.3579,
          "implied_yes": 0.6421,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1537,
              "best_odd": 2.55,
              "edge": 0.015,
              "ev": -0.0498,
              "implied_prob": 0.3577,
              "model_prob": 0.455,
              "p_final": 0.3726
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2114,
              "best_odd": 1.42,
              "edge": -0.0206,
              "ev": -0.1171,
              "implied_prob": 0.6423,
              "model_prob": 0.545,
              "p_final": 0.6217
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "p_final_no": 0.3726,
          "p_final_yes": 0.6217,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1981,
          "alpha_under": 0.1441,
          "best_over_odd": 1.53,
          "best_under_odd": 2.52,
          "consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
          "consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_over": -0.1348,
          "edge_under": 0.1348,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2625,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1229,
          "ev_under": 0.3054,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0381,
          "implied_over": 0.6168,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.615,
          "implied_under": 0.3832,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.385,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1981,
              "best_odd": 1.49,
              "edge": -0.0263,
              "ev": -0.1229,
              "implied_prob": 0.615,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5886
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1441,
              "best_odd": 2.38,
              "edge": 0.0192,
              "ev": -0.0381,
              "implied_prob": 0.385,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4042
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.5886,
          "p_final_under": 0.4042,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3054,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 4.7
      },
      "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 6.0,
          "key": "conflict",
          "label": "Disagree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "summary": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita."
        },
        "alignment_key": "conflict",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
        "decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
        "execution_confidence": 35,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puebla Wanita at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.0%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Puebla Wanita as the value side (35.6%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 1.6,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Execution confidence below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Puebla Wanita",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_conflict",
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_conflict",
            "detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
            "name": "Market Conflict",
            "short": "Market Conflict",
            "subtype": "drift_against_model",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": false,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +30.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "79 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "35 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "conflict"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 6,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
          "Decision strength: 3.0/10",
          "Execution confidence below 65"
        ],
        "reliability_score": 79,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market steam conflicts with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "The market has moved toward Quer\u00e9taro W, but the model still strongly favours Puebla Wanita.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.0527,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
          "consensus_odds": 2.73,
          "disagreement_label": "Normal",
          "disagreement_level": "normal",
          "implied_prob": 0.34,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.0284,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.8%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": true,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "reasons": [
            "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -2.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "flat",
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "separation_score": -20,
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.02
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 2.73,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.007,
          "ev": -0.0527,
          "implied_prob": 0.34,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Puebla Wanita"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1537,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.55,
            "edge": 0.015,
            "market_prob": 0.3577,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.455,
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.1537,
              "best_odd": 2.55,
              "edge": 0.015,
              "ev": -0.0498,
              "implied_prob": 0.3577,
              "model_prob": 0.455,
              "p_final": 0.3726
            },
            "p_final": 0.3726,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
            "value_side": "no",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2114,
              "best_odd": 1.42,
              "edge": -0.0206,
              "ev": -0.1171,
              "implied_prob": 0.6423,
              "model_prob": 0.545,
              "p_final": 0.6217
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0971,
          "ev": 0.2285,
          "implied_prob": 0.3579,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1441,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.38,
            "edge": 0.0192,
            "market_prob": 0.385,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1981,
              "best_odd": 1.49,
              "edge": -0.0263,
              "ev": -0.1229,
              "implied_prob": 0.615,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.5886
            },
            "p_final": 0.4042,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0381,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.1441,
              "best_odd": 2.38,
              "edge": 0.0192,
              "ev": -0.0381,
              "implied_prob": 0.385,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.4042
            },
            "value_side": "under"
          },
          "edge": 0.1348,
          "ev": 0.3054,
          "implied_prob": 0.3832,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1603358,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3054,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3473,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3559
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2285,
        "implied_prob": 0.3579,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2285,
          "implied_prob": 0.3579,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": false,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Quer\u00e9taro W",
        "home": "Puebla Wanita"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.110738,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3054,
        "implied_prob": 0.3832,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.0527,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-5.3%",
        "consensus_odds": 2.73,
        "disagreement_label": "Normal",
        "disagreement_level": "normal",
        "implied_prob": 0.34,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.3663003663003663,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.0284,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.8%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1603358,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T18:01:01.619411+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga MX Femenil Liga MX FemenilKedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 América Wanita 7 7 0 0 21
2 Tigres UANL W 7 6 0 1 18
3 Monterrey Wanita 7 6 0 1 18
4 Juárez Wanita 7 5 0 2 15
5 Toluca W 6 4 1 1 13
6 Guadalajara Wanita 7 4 0 3 12
7 Atlético San Luis Wanita 7 4 0 3 12
8 Cruz Azul Wanita 7 4 0 3 12
9 León Wanita 6 3 0 3 9
10 Pumas UNAM Wanita 7 3 0 4 9
11 Santos Laguna Wanita 7 3 0 4 9
12 Atlas Wanita 7 2 2 3 8
13 Pachuca Wanita 6 2 1 3 7
14 Tijuana W 6 2 0 4 6
15 Querétaro W 7 2 0 5 6
16 Atlante W 7 1 0 6 3
17 Puebla Wanita 7 1 0 6 3
18 Necaxa Wanita 7 0 0 7 0
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 América Wanita 7 35 5 +30 21
2 Monterrey Wanita 7 23 9 +14 18
3 Tigres UANL W 7 21 6 +15 18
4 Atlético San Luis Wanita 7 19 14 +5 12
5 Guadalajara Wanita 7 17 11 +6 12
6 Pumas UNAM Wanita 7 15 14 +1 9
7 León Wanita 6 14 10 +4 9
8 Puebla Wanita 7 12 34 -22 3
9 Toluca W 6 11 8 +3 13
10 Tijuana W 6 11 11 0 6
11 Cruz Azul Wanita 7 11 18 -7 12
12 Santos Laguna Wanita 7 9 16 -7 9
13 Querétaro W 7 9 18 -9 6
14 Pachuca Wanita 6 8 9 -1 7
15 Juárez Wanita 7 7 5 +2 15
16 Atlas Wanita 7 7 15 -8 8
17 Atlante W 7 4 11 -7 3
18 Necaxa Wanita 7 3 22 -19 0