The model missed the final outcome (Santos Laguna Wanita win 2–0).
The model had projected Cruz Azul Wanita at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Cruz Azul Wanita Santos Laguna Wanita ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Laguna Wanita | 26.6% | 26.2% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.0% | 24.7% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Cruz Azul Wanita | 44.3% | 49.1% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Santos Laguna Wanita win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cruz Azul Wanita; match finished Santos Laguna Wanita
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Santos Laguna Wanita win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santos Laguna Wanita 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Cruz Azul Wanita 44.3%
- xG · Santos Laguna Wanita 1.11 — Cruz Azul Wanita 1.49
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 00:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santos Laguna Wanita 3.54 · Draw 3.75 · Cruz Azul Wanita 1.89
- Implied 1X2 · Santos Laguna Wanita 26.2% · Draw 24.7% · Cruz Azul Wanita 49.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Santos Laguna Wanita 3.54 · Draw 3.75 · Cruz Azul Wanita 1.89
- Implied 1X2 · Santos Laguna Wanita 26.2% · Draw 24.7% · Cruz Azul Wanita 49.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Santos Laguna Wanita win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Santos Laguna Wanita win · Santos Laguna Wanita 2–0 Cruz Azul Wanita
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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],
"pick_key": "X2",
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1814,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1229,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0275,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"sort_key": 1793.125,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"alert_team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.73,
"hero_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 49.1,
"market_team": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_team": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Wanita at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Wanita as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.73,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.73,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.49,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.11,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.49,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.11 \u00b7 Away xG 1.49 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"steam_team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Wanita at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Wanita as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santos Laguna Wanita 1.11 xG vs Cruz Azul Wanita 1.49 \u2192 Cruz Azul Wanita 44.3%",
"Market: Cruz Azul Wanita ~49.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Santos Laguna Wanita \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul Wanita, but sharp money moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.44,
"fair_prob": 26.64,
"label": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"market_prob": 26.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob": 29.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"market_prob": 49.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.33,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.33,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 49.07,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Santos Laguna Wanita"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.73,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.8,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 26,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Santos Laguna Wanita 1.11 xG vs Cruz Azul Wanita 1.49 \u2192 Cruz Azul Wanita 44.3%",
"Market: Cruz Azul Wanita ~49.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Santos Laguna Wanita \u2193 -17.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Cruz Azul Wanita, but sharp money moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.73,
"hero_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Santos Laguna Wanita odds shortened \u2193 -17.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Santos Laguna Wanita, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Santos Laguna Wanita \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Santos Laguna Wanita, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Buying interest on Santos Laguna Wanita \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Santos Laguna Wanita has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 17.1%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Santos Laguna Wanita."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.73,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.3 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.3,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.44,
"edge_pp": 0.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 26.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.29,
"edge_pp": 4.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.73,
"edge_pp": -4.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 49.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Santos Laguna Wanita \u2014 odds shortened by 17.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Cruz Azul Wanita (49.1%).",
"However, Santos Laguna Wanita has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -17.1%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Cruz Azul Wanita, Market \u2192 Cruz Azul Wanita, Recent sharp money \u2192 Santos Laguna Wanita.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books synchronized on Santos Laguna Wanita (17.1% steam, score 92) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"3.75",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.40 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 59m",
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.1,
3.54,
3.4
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Santos Laguna Wanita \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Santos Laguna Wanita \u2193 -17.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.4,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2193 -17.1%",
"open_odds": 4.1,
"pick_team": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"steam_score": 92,
"steam_team_name": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cruz-azul-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"away_team_id": 14875,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14875.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"away_team_public_id": "24b8F0Cn8Z4pZf",
"away_team_slug": "cruz-azul-w",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1603371,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"home_team_id": 14883,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14883.webp",
"home_team_name": "Santos Laguna Wanita",
"home_team_public_id": "5nDgPysI2CWhPR",
"home_team_slug": "santos-laguna-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "santos-laguna-w",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_id": 673,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/673.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Femenil",
"league_public_id": "34EclHhIs9gBvN",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 01:06:00",
"public_id": "602vI8Y4Xlp8We",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Corona"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.557,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4907,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.262
},
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"p_final": 0.4641
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2807,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0275,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4907,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.262
},
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2593
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2978,
"best_odd": 3.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": -0.0674,
"implied_prob": 0.262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4907,
"draw": 0.2473,
"home": 0.262
},
"model_prob": 0.2669,
"p_final": 0.2635
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0862,
"ev": -0.1629,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.4429
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0235,
"ev": 0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2901
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.54,
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.2825,
"model_prob": 0.2669
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1581,
"alpha_yes": 0.2173,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0833,
"edge_yes": -0.0833,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1625,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0542,
"ev_yes": -0.1814,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1111,
"implied_no": 0.3817,
"implied_yes": 0.6183,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.3966
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5986
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3966,
"p_final_yes": 0.5986,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2006,
"alpha_under": 0.1459,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.33,
"edge_over": -0.123,
"edge_under": 0.123,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2288,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1255,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.605,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6084,
"implied_under": 0.395,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3916,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2006,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6084,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.583
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4101
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.583,
"p_final_under": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.8,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cruz Azul Wanita at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cruz Azul Wanita as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Santos Laguna Wanita, but the model still strongly favours Cruz Azul Wanita.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.38
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.535,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4429,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.38
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1229,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cruz Azul Wanita"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0128,
"market_prob": 0.3837,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1581,
"best_odd": 2.385,
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.3837,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.3966
},
"p_final": 0.3966,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0542,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2173,
"best_odd": 1.485,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.6163,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.5986
}
},
"edge": 0.0833,
"ev": 0.1625,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0184,
"market_prob": 0.3916,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2006,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1255,
"implied_prob": 0.6084,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.583
},
"p_final": 0.4101,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1459,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.3916,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4101
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.123,
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.395,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1603371,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4429,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.2669
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1625,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1625,
"implied_prob": 0.3817,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.465,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cruz Azul Wanita",
"home": "Santos Laguna Wanita"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088184,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.395,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1229,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4429,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5291005291005292,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1629,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1603371,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T01:05:07.844509+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga MX Femenil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey Wanita | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 2 | América Wanita | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 4 | Juárez Wanita | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Wanita | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlético San Luis Wanita | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Toluca W | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM Wanita | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | León Wanita | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas Wanita | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna Wanita | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul Wanita | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 13 | Pachuca Wanita | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlante W | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Querétaro W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Tijuana W | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla Wanita | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Necaxa Wanita | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América Wanita | 8 | 37 | 7 | +30 | 22 |
| 2 | Monterrey Wanita | 9 | 35 | 10 | +25 | 24 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 9 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 22 |
| 4 | Atlético San Luis Wanita | 9 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Wanita | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 6 | Toluca W | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM Wanita | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | León Wanita | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Juárez Wanita | 9 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 21 |
| 10 | Pachuca Wanita | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla Wanita | 9 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 3 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna Wanita | 9 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Tijuana W | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Cruz Azul Wanita | 9 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlas Wanita | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Atlante W | 9 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Necaxa Wanita | 8 | 3 | 32 | -29 | 0 |
