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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Trans Narva Nõmme United ✖ Incorrect
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.47,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Trans Narva or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Trans Narva"
},
"away_xg": 1.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Trans Narva",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.003,
"edge_gap": 0.1252,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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"odd": 2.2
}
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"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Trans Narva Win",
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"market_fair_odds": 2.37,
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"away_score_rate": 68.7,
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"home_played": 14,
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"pick": "No",
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},
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"home_expected": 1.44,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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],
"source": "xG"
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Trans Narva or N\u00f5mme United",
"prob": 70.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or N\u00f5mme United",
"prob": 58.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Trans Narva or Draw",
"pick_prob": 71.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.8,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 41.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Trans Narva"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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}
},
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"home_team": "Trans Narva",
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.16,
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"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.75,
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"implied_early_pct": 24.73,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.8,
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{
"closing": 1.49,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.52,
"early": 2.52,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
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},
"home_xg": 1.44,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2224,
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"text": "-22.2%"
},
"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -26.7,
"text": "-26.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 10288.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0757,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -7.6,
"text": "-7.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0245,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side_label": "Trans Narva",
"sort_key": 1793.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"alert_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.58,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"market_team": "Trans Narva",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "Trans Narva",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.27,
"fair_prob": 41.88,
"label": "Trans Narva",
"market_prob": 42.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob": 29.31,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.31,
"fair_prob": 28.81,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob": 33.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.18,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.38,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.18,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.62,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.58,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trans Narva",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Trans Narva, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Draw remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.58,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "N\u00f5mme United odds lengthened \u2191 +5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, N\u00f5mme United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, N\u00f5mme United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 4.58,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.6 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.6,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Trans Narva",
"market_prob_pct": 42.15,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.73,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "N\u00f5mme United",
"market_prob_pct": 33.12,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trans Narva (42.1%).",
"N\u00f5mme United has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +5.0%, 3/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Trans Narva, Market \u2192 Trans Narva, Recent sharp money \u2192 N\u00f5mme United.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.67,
"closing_odds": 3.75,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.67,
"entry_odds": 3.75,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on N\u00f5mme United (swing 2.80 \u2192 2.48 \u2192 2.75) \u2014 net 5.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.48 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 57m",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.48"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.62,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10059,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10059.webp",
"away_team_name": "N\u00f5mme United",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1513568,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_id": 2274,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2274.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trans Narva",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_id": 329,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/329.webp",
"league_name": "Meistriliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Narva",
"venue_name": "Narva Kalev-Fama staadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.421,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.1233,
"implied_prob": 0.3312,
"model_prob": 0.2882,
"p_final": 0.3131
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2793,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2473,
"model_prob": 0.2933,
"p_final": 0.2601
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4479,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"p_final": 0.4202
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.105,
"edge_yes": -0.105,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.265,
"ev_yes": -0.2224,
"implied_no": 0.355,
"implied_yes": 0.645,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": -0.1418,
"edge_under": 0.1418,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"implied_over": 0.6238,
"implied_under": 0.3762,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.54,
"draw_prob": 0.2933,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4185,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.4215,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4185,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trans Narva"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.105,
"ev": 0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.355,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1418,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3762,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513568,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2882,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4185
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3762,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3762,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "N\u00f5mme United",
"home": "Trans Narva"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.1219,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.355,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.46,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513568,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T13:11:52.204650+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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