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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Waterford Waterford ✔ Correct
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 6.55,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.82,
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"over_25_prob": 0.664,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.336
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sligo Rovers",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Waterford",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sligo Rovers"
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"selection": "home",
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"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
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"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
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"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 90.3,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 61.0
},
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"away_expected": 1.09,
"home_expected": 2.33,
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"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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"away": 0,
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"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sligo Rovers",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
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},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 15.3,
"draw_pct": 20.8,
"home_pct": 64.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Waterford"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.42,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "high",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"home_team": "Waterford",
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.07,
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{
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],
"movement": [
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},
{
"closing": 3.56,
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"implied_early_pct": 27.02,
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{
"closing": 3.69,
"early": 3.69,
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{
"closing": 1.83,
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{
"closing": 2.05,
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.7
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},
"home_xg": 2.33,
"homepage_pick": {
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"confidence": "strong",
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"edge": 15.2,
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},
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{
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.3112,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.1,
"text": "-31.1%"
},
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0791,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"max_ev": 0.0791,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.9,
"text": "+7.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6403,
"side_label": "Waterford",
"sort_key": 10071.19,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.142,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.2,
"text": "-14.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.037,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.037,
"no_prob": 39.0,
"sort_key": 10033.3,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 61.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "14/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "14/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"alert_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.04,
"hero_label": "Waterford",
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"market_team": "Waterford",
"model_prob_pct": 64.0,
"model_team": "Waterford",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.04,
"fair_prob": 63.96,
"label": "Waterford",
"market_prob": 46.92,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.25,
"fair_prob": 20.77,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.79,
"fair_prob": 15.28,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob": 26.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.44,
"fair_prob": 66.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.44,
"fair_prob": 33.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.34,
"fair_prob": 61.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.34,
"fair_prob": 39.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Waterford",
"market_prob_pct": 46.92,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Waterford",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 46.9,
"model_prob_pct": 64.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Waterford, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.04,
"hero_label": "Waterford",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sligo Rovers odds lengthened \u2191 +9.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
"note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Waterford.",
"However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Waterford more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Sligo Rovers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (14/14) supports the current market view on Sligo Rovers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 17.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 43.2 pp (at 64.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 43.2,
"max_prob_pct": 64.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.96,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Waterford",
"market_prob_pct": 46.92,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.02,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.28,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 26.07,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Waterford (46.9%).",
"However, Sligo Rovers has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +9.7%, 14/14).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Waterford, Market \u2192 Waterford, Recent sharp money \u2192 Sligo Rovers.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 14,
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "14/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Sligo Rovers (9.7%, 14/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.69 \u2192 2.95 \u2192 3.40",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.69"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.40"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Sligo Rovers \u2191 +9.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "14/14",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_score": 67,
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3842,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3842.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492715,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 3845,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3845.webp",
"home_team_name": "Waterford",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Division",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Waterford",
"venue_name": "Regional Sports Centre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2513,
"best_odd": 3.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.1385,
"implied_prob": 0.2607,
"model_prob": 0.1525,
"p_final": 0.2335
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2717,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.0991,
"implied_prob": 0.2702,
"model_prob": 0.2072,
"p_final": 0.2531
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3345,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0572,
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"model_prob": 0.6403,
"p_final": 0.5264
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"edge_no": -0.0534,
"edge_yes": 0.0534,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.142,
"ev_yes": 0.037,
"implied_no": 0.4434,
"implied_yes": 0.5566,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": 0.1444,
"edge_under": -0.1444,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.255,
"ev_under": -0.3112,
"implied_over": 0.5196,
"implied_under": 0.4804,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.255,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.61,
"draw_prob": 0.2072,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6403,
"over_prob": 0.664,
"total_xg": 3.42,
"under_prob": 0.336,
"xg_diff": 1.24
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0572,
"ev": 0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.4692,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6403,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Waterford"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0534,
"ev": 0.037,
"implied_prob": 0.5566,
"model_prob": 0.61,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1444,
"ev": 0.255,
"implied_prob": 0.5196,
"model_prob": 0.664,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492715,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.255,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1525,
"draw": 0.2072,
"home": 0.6403
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sligo Rovers",
"home": "Waterford"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.16932,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.255,
"implied_prob": 0.5196,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.664,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492715,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:10.103686+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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