Statistik / Bola Sepak / England. Liga Super Wanita FA / London City Lionesses vs Aston Villa Wanita

London City Lionesses vs Aston Villa Wanita Statistics & Analysis

May 16, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 London City Lionesses London City Lionesses ✔ Betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 2-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1805128

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result London City Lionesses win · London City Lionesses 2–1 Aston Villa Wanita
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Aston Villa Wanita (1X2),Bawah 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Bawah 2.5 gol kira-kira 6.2 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
London City Lionesses (1X2) 41.8 44.2 -2.4
Lukis (1X2) 25.7 25.1 +0.5
Aston Villa Wanita (1X2) 32.6 30.7 +1.9
Lebih 2.5 gol 50.6 56.8 -6.2
Bawah 2.5 gol 49.4 43.2 +6.2
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 49.4% pada Bawah 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 43.2%. Bezanya — kira-kira 6.2 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
London City Lionesses (1X2) 2.1 2.1 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 3.69 3.69 0.0
Aston Villa Wanita (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 1.66 1.66 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 2.18 2.18 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "selection": null,
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      "market_comparison": [],
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    "betting_markets": {
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          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
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      "double_chance": {
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        ],
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      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 61.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.0,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.15,
        "under_prob": 39.0
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Aston Villa Wanita",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "London City Lionesses",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 3.02,
          "early": 3.02,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 30.71,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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      "top_value_gap": {
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      "most_likely": {
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    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "ev_yes": -0.1405,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0488,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
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        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.4
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        "top_prob": 10.6
      }
    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 14219,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14219.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Aston Villa Wanita",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1417326,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 15406,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15406.webp",
      "home_team_name": "London City Lionesses",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 44,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/44.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Super Wanita FA",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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      "markets": {
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            "best_odd": 3.02,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0054,
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          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 3.69,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0016,
            "ev": -0.0667,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 2.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "model_prob": 0.4177,
            "p_final": 0.4312
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.58,
          "edge_no": 0.0477,
          "edge_yes": -0.0477,
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          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.2,
          "edge_over": 0.0494,
          "edge_under": -0.0494,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0431,
          "ev_under": -0.142,
          "implied_over": 0.5606,
          "implied_under": 0.4394,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0488,
      "confidence": 4.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.61,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.39,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0488,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4083,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0104,
          "ev": -0.0944,
          "implied_prob": 0.4416,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "London City Lionesses"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0477,
          "ev": 0.0488,
          "implied_prob": 0.4083,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0494,
          "ev": 0.0431,
          "implied_prob": 0.5606,
          "model_prob": 0.61,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1417326,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0488,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Aston Villa Wanita",
        "home": "London City Lionesses"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1417326,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T15:59:12.761213+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Liga Super Wanita FA Liga Super Wanita FA — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Manchester City Wanita 22 18 1 3 55
2 Arsenal Wanita 22 15 6 1 51
3 Chelsea W 22 15 4 3 49
4 Manchester United Wanita 22 11 7 4 40
5 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 11 3 8 36
6 London City Lionesses 22 8 3 11 27
7 Brighton Wanita 22 7 5 10 26
8 Everton W 22 7 2 13 23
9 Aston Villa Wanita 22 5 5 12 20
10 West Ham Wanita 22 5 4 13 19
11 Liverpool Wanita 22 4 5 13 17
12 Leicester City Wanita 22 2 3 17 9
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Manchester City Wanita 22 62 19 +43 55
2 Arsenal Wanita 22 53 14 +39 51
3 Chelsea W 22 44 20 +24 49
4 Manchester United Wanita 22 38 22 +16 40
5 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 35 38 -3 36
6 London City Lionesses 22 28 35 -7 27
7 Aston Villa Wanita 22 28 48 -20 20
8 Brighton Wanita 22 27 28 -1 26
9 Everton W 22 25 37 -12 23
10 Liverpool Wanita 22 21 34 -13 17
11 West Ham Wanita 22 20 45 -25 19
12 Leicester City Wanita 22 11 52 -41 9
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Arsenal Wanita 22 1.2 0.2 +1.0 51
2 Everton W 22 0.2 1.2 -1.0 23
3 Manchester City Wanita 22 — — — 55
4 Chelsea W 22 — — — 49
5 Manchester United Wanita 22 — — — 40
6 Tottenham Hotspur W 22 — — — 36
7 London City Lionesses 22 — — — 27
8 Brighton Wanita 22 — — — 26
9 Aston Villa Wanita 22 — — — 20
10 West Ham Wanita 22 — — — 19
11 Liverpool Wanita 22 — — — 17
12 Leicester City Wanita 22 — — — 9