The model missed the final outcome (Manchester City Wanita win 4–2).
The model had projected Draw at 35.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 draw Manchester City Wanita ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 4-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Wanita | 33.2% | 40.0% | -6.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 35.9% | 26.3% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Arsenal Wanita | 30.8% | 33.7% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 35.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.3%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Manchester City Wanita win 4–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 9.6 percentage points (26.3% vs model 35.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Manchester City Wanita 33.2% · Draw 36.0% · Arsenal Wanita 30.9%
- xG · Manchester City Wanita 0.74 — Arsenal Wanita 0.72
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Manchester City Wanita 2.32 · Draw 3.52 · Arsenal Wanita 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Manchester City Wanita 40.0% · Draw 26.3% · Arsenal Wanita 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Manchester City Wanita 2.32 · Draw 3.52 · Arsenal Wanita 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Manchester City Wanita 40.0% · Draw 26.3% · Arsenal Wanita 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Manchester City Wanita win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Manchester City Wanita win · Manchester City Wanita 4–2 Arsenal Wanita
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"percent_away": "10%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"prob": 64.0
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Manchester City Wanita",
"largest_move_kind": null,
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},
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{
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}
},
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},
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"text": "-54.0%"
},
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0139,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0139,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.4,
"text": "+1.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "draw",
"sort_key": 5211.12,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 849.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-0",
"top_prob": 23.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"alert_team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.6,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"market_team": "Manchester City Wanita",
"model_prob_pct": 35.9,
"model_team": "Draw",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7854,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 35.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (35.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +78.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +78.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+78.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0139,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -45.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.61,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.61,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.72,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -45.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.74,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 0.74,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.74 \u00b7 Away xG 0.72 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -45%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"steam_team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7854,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 35.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (35.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +78.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +78.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+78.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0139,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -45.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Manchester City Wanita 0.74 xG vs Arsenal Wanita 0.72 \u2192 Draw 35.9%",
"Market: Manchester City Wanita ~26.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Arsenal Wanita odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Draw with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.74,
"fair_prob": 33.22,
"label": "Manchester City Wanita",
"market_prob": 39.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.61,
"fair_prob": 35.94,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob": 30.84,
"label": "Arsenal Wanita",
"market_prob": 33.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -37.38,
"fair_prob": 18.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 37.38,
"fair_prob": 81.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -31.08,
"fair_prob": 28.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.98,
"fair_prob": 71.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.94,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.33,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Arsenal Wanita"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 35.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.3%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.61,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Draw",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Draw \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Manchester City Wanita 0.74 xG vs Arsenal Wanita 0.72 \u2192 Draw 35.9%",
"Market: Manchester City Wanita ~26.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Arsenal Wanita odds \u2191 +14.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Draw with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.61,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Arsenal Wanita odds lengthened \u2191 +14.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Arsenal Wanita has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Arsenal Wanita \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Arsenal Wanita has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Arsenal Wanita \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Arsenal Wanita has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Arsenal Wanita."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.61,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.7 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.7,
"max_prob_pct": 35.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.6,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.74,
"edge_pp": -6.74,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Manchester City Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 39.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.61,
"edge_pp": 9.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.87,
"edge_pp": -2.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Arsenal Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 33.71,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Arsenal Wanita \u2014 odds lengthened by 14.3% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Manchester City Wanita (26.3%).",
"However, Arsenal Wanita has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.3%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Manchester City Wanita, while Arsenal Wanita odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.41,
"closing_odds": 3.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.41,
"entry_odds": 3.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Arsenal Wanita (14.3%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.62",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.28 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 103h 4m",
"pick_team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.28"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.75,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Arsenal Wanita",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Arsenal Wanita",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Arsenal Wanita",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "arsenal-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Arsenal Wanita",
"away_team_id": 1850,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1850.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arsenal Wanita",
"away_team_public_id": "38IfMkt3yQUxR0",
"away_team_slug": "arsenal-w",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1607697,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Manchester City Wanita",
"home_team_id": 1854,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1854.webp",
"home_team_name": "Manchester City Wanita",
"home_team_public_id": "3dKejLGnHZNKDN",
"home_team_slug": "manchester-city-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "manchester-city-w",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Liga Super Wanita FA",
"league_id": 44,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/44.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Super Wanita FA",
"league_public_id": "0CWB9jF1L82Zof",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 15:30:00",
"public_id": "2fwW8uoR4ZCk2g",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Manchester",
"venue_name": "Manchester Regional Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4307,
"best_odd": 2.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0123,
"ev": -0.1069,
"implied_prob": 0.3371,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2633,
"home": 0.3996
},
"model_prob": 0.3085,
"p_final": 0.3248
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2567,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2633,
"home": 0.3996
},
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"p_final": 0.288
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4044,
"best_odd": 2.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0273,
"ev": -0.1364,
"implied_prob": 0.3996,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3371,
"draw": 0.2633,
"home": 0.3996
},
"model_prob": 0.332,
"p_final": 0.3723
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.0552,
"ev": -0.1517,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.3085
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0754,
"ev": 0.2655,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.3595
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.32,
"edge": -0.099,
"ev": -0.2297,
"implied_prob": 0.431,
"model_prob": 0.332
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.0957,
"alpha_yes": 0.1312,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.3098,
"edge_yes": -0.3108,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7017,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0117,
"ev_yes": -0.5399,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1433,
"implied_no": 0.4052,
"implied_yes": 0.5948,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0957,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0117,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.715,
"p_final": 0.4325
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1312,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.5563
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4325,
"p_final_yes": 0.5563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1238,
"alpha_under": 0.1125,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.18,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": -0.3738,
"edge_under": 0.3738,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.6869,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1521,
"ev_under": 0.7854,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0137,
"implied_over": 0.5548,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5573,
"implied_under": 0.4452,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4427,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1521,
"implied_prob": 0.5573,
"model_prob": 0.181,
"p_final": 0.5108
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1125,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4427,
"model_prob": 0.819,
"p_final": 0.485
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5108,
"p_final_under": 0.485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.46,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7854,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7854,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.7854,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.7854,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7854,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Draw at 35.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Draw as the value side (35.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Draw",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +78.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +78.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+78.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Draw).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0139,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -45.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.284,
"draw_prob": 0.3595,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3595,
"over_prob": 0.181,
"total_xg": 1.46,
"under_prob": 0.819,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.0957,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0299,
"market_prob": 0.4026,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.715,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.0957,
"best_odd": 2.285,
"edge": 0.0299,
"ev": -0.0117,
"implied_prob": 0.4026,
"model_prob": 0.715,
"p_final": 0.4325
},
"p_final": 0.4325,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0117,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1312,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1433,
"implied_prob": 0.5974,
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.5563
}
},
"edge": 0.3098,
"ev": 0.7017,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"model_prob": 0.715,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1125,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0423,
"market_prob": 0.4427,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.819,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0466,
"ev": -0.1521,
"implied_prob": 0.5573,
"model_prob": 0.181,
"p_final": 0.5108
},
"p_final": 0.485,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1125,
"best_odd": 2.09,
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.4427,
"model_prob": 0.819,
"p_final": 0.485
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3738,
"ev": 0.7854,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"model_prob": 0.819,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1607697,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7854,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3085,
"draw": 0.3595,
"home": 0.332
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7017,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.715,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7017,
"implied_prob": 0.4052,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.715,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arsenal Wanita",
"home": "Manchester City Wanita"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.836215,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7854,
"implied_prob": 0.4452,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.819,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0139,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.4%",
"consensus_odds": 3.52,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2633,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2840909090909091,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2654,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+26.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1607697,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T15:29:14.819595+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Super Wanita FA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Chelsea W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Liverpool Wanita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Manchester United Wanita | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Everton W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Arsenal Wanita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | West Ham Wanita | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 | Aston Villa Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 4 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 10 |
| 2 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 3 | Chelsea W | 4 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 10 |
| 4 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Liverpool Wanita | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Birmingham City Wanita | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 |
| 7 | Manchester United Wanita | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | West Ham Wanita | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Aston Villa Wanita | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 12 | Arsenal Wanita | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Everton W | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United Wanita | 5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 3 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 4 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 4 | — | — | — | 10 |
| 6 | Liverpool Wanita | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 7 | Everton W | 4 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 8 | Arsenal Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 4 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 10 | West Ham Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Aston Villa Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
