Rayo Vallecano vs Girona Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
      "away_win_prob": 0.231,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2646,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.33,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.78,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.98,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.75,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5045,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Rayo Vallecano or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Rayo Vallecano",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Rayo Vallecano"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.13,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "confidence": 50.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Rayo Vallecano",
        "edge": 0.1143,
        "edge_gap": 0.2404,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3905,
        "model_prob": 0.5048,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 23.1,
          "draw": 26.4,
          "home": 50.5
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Rayo Vallecano"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.48
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.48,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Rayo Vallecano Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.56,
        "market_odds": 2.48,
        "model_odds": 1.98,
        "overround": 3.3,
        "prob_edge": 10.2,
        "value_pct": 25.3,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 67.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 12,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 82.6,
        "no_prob": 42.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 57.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 57.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.13,
        "home_expected": 1.75,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 6.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Rayo Vallecano or Draw",
            "prob": 76.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Rayo Vallecano or Girona",
            "prob": 73.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Girona",
            "prob": 49.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Rayo Vallecano or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 76.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 23.1,
        "draw_pct": 26.5,
        "home_pct": 50.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Rayo Vallecano"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.88,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 54.9,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.88,
        "under_prob": 45.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 25.3,
        "implied_prob": 40.3,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Rayo Vallecano Win",
        "model_prob": 50.5,
        "odds": 2.48
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.1
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.75,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0741,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3905,
        "max_ev": 0.0741,
        "model_prob": 0.5048,
        "side_label": "Rayo Vallecano",
        "sort_key": 10216.69,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0541,
        "ev_under": -0.089,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0541,
        "over_prob": 54.9,
        "sort_key": 10048.69,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 45.1,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0415,
        "ev_yes": -0.0414,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0414,
        "no_prob": 42.6,
        "sort_key": 1789.65,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 57.4
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 813.3,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.1
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 547,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/547.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Girona",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1391165,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 728,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/728.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Rayo Vallecano",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 140,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
      "league_name": "La Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2601,
            "best_odd": 3.03,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0231,
            "ev": -0.1016,
            "implied_prob": 0.3196,
            "model_prob": 0.2308,
            "p_final": 0.2965
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2885,
            "best_odd": 3.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0074,
            "ev": -0.0562,
            "implied_prob": 0.2899,
            "model_prob": 0.2644,
            "p_final": 0.2826
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3728,
            "best_odd": 2.48,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0426,
            "ev": 0.0741,
            "implied_prob": 0.3905,
            "model_prob": 0.5048,
            "p_final": 0.4331
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.0019,
          "edge_yes": 0.0019,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0415,
          "ev_yes": -0.0414,
          "implied_no": 0.4279,
          "implied_yes": 0.5721,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.02,
          "edge_over": 0.0288,
          "edge_under": -0.0288,
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          "ev_under": -0.089,
          "implied_over": 0.5202,
          "implied_under": 0.4798,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.88,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0741,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.574,
          "draw_prob": 0.2644,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5048,
          "over_prob": 0.549,
          "total_xg": 2.88,
          "under_prob": 0.451,
          "xg_diff": 0.62
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0426,
          "ev": 0.0741,
          "implied_prob": 0.3905,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5048,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Rayo Vallecano"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0019,
          "ev": -0.0414,
          "implied_prob": 0.5721,
          "model_prob": 0.574,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0288,
          "ev": 0.0541,
          "implied_prob": 0.5202,
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1391165,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0741,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2308,
        "draw": 0.2644,
        "home": 0.5048
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0541,
        "implied_prob": 0.5202,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.549,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0541,
          "implied_prob": 0.5202,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Girona",
        "home": "Rayo Vallecano"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.029925,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0741,
        "implied_prob": 0.3905,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.5048,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Rayo Vallecano",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1391165,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T15:59:20.708895+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}