The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Unión Adarve at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Unión Adarve Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Adarve | 39.9% | 31.2% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.1% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Fuenlabrada | 30.6% | 40.8% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Fuenlabrada's win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fuenlabrada than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Unión Adarve; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Unión Adarve by 10.2 percentage points (50.1% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unión Adarve 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Fuenlabrada 30.6%
- xG · Unión Adarve 1.40 — Fuenlabrada 1.20
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unión Adarve 2.88 · Draw 3.20 · Fuenlabrada 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Unión Adarve 31.2% · Draw 28.1% · Fuenlabrada 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Unión Adarve 2.88 · Draw 3.20 · Fuenlabrada 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Unión Adarve 31.2% · Draw 28.1% · Fuenlabrada 40.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
58/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
16/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.2
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Unión Adarve 2–2 Fuenlabrada
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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},
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"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -15.4,
"text": "-15.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"value_side": "yes",
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.21,
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"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"market_team": "Fuenlabrada",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1511,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uni\u00f3n Adarve at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uni\u00f3n Adarve as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Uni\u00f3n Adarve \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614574 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (10 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1511,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uni\u00f3n Adarve at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uni\u00f3n Adarve as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Uni\u00f3n Adarve \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614574 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n Adarve 1.40 xG vs Fuenlabrada 1.20 \u2192 Uni\u00f3n Adarve 39.9%",
"Market: Fuenlabrada ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Uni\u00f3n Adarve +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uni\u00f3n Adarve with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.78,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"market_prob": 31.16,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.43,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Fuenlabrada",
"market_prob": 40.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.39,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.39,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Fuenlabrada",
"market_prob_pct": 40.79,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Fuenlabrada\u0027s win probability at 40.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 23,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Uni\u00f3n Adarve 1.40 xG vs Fuenlabrada 1.20 \u2192 Uni\u00f3n Adarve 39.9%",
"Market: Fuenlabrada ~31.2% implied",
"Market Steam: Uni\u00f3n Adarve +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Uni\u00f3n Adarve with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.21,
"hero_label": "Fuenlabrada",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Uni\u00f3n Adarve has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Fuenlabrada than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Fuenlabrada than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Uni\u00f3n Adarve has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Fuenlabrada more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Uni\u00f3n Adarve has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Fuenlabrada",
"largest_gap_pp": -10.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Fuenlabrada higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.78,
"edge_pp": 8.78,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"market_prob_pct": 31.16,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.43,
"edge_pp": 1.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -10.21,
"edge_pp": -10.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Fuenlabrada",
"market_prob_pct": 40.79,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fuenlabrada (31.2%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Uni\u00f3n Adarve, Market \u2192 Fuenlabrada, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.45,
"closing_odds": 2.2,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.45,
"entry_odds": 2.2,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.88,
"pick_team": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fuenlabrada",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fuenlabrada",
"away_team_id": 4906,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4906.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fuenlabrada",
"away_team_public_id": "0XInQBhN9wh8Hg",
"away_team_slug": "fuenlabrada",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1614574,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"home_team_id": 9719,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9719.webp",
"home_team_name": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"home_team_public_id": "4eSccpIaj0OCKp",
"home_team_slug": "union-adarve",
"ht.home_team_slug": "union-adarve",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 7",
"league_id": 445,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/445.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 7",
"league_public_id": "5fXIFx0UqvnCfz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 10:00:00",
"public_id": "5LAzVni3u0H0y2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3809,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.039,
"ev": -0.1883,
"implied_prob": 0.4079,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4079,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3116
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3689
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2936,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.2805,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4079,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3116
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2847
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3906,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0344,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4079,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3116
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.346
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": -0.149,
"ev": -0.3278,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0177,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": 0.0525,
"ev": 0.1511,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2105,
"alpha_yes": 0.2105,
"best_no_odd": 1.85,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0439,
"edge_yes": 0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1545,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1065,
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0735,
"implied_no": 0.5009,
"implied_yes": 0.4991,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4909
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5091
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4909,
"p_final_yes": 0.5091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2111,
"alpha_under": 0.2322,
"best_over_odd": 2.15,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.08,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.64,
"edge_over": 0.0427,
"edge_under": -0.0427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0363,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0649,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0987,
"implied_over": 0.4393,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4409,
"implied_under": 0.5607,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5591,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4495,
"p_final_under": 0.5496,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1511,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0363,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0363,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1511,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 23,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Uni\u00f3n Adarve at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Uni\u00f3n Adarve as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Uni\u00f3n Adarve \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.88 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614574 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.88 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "66 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "23 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Uni\u00f3n Adarve, but the model still strongly favours Uni\u00f3n Adarve.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0363,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0344,
"ev": -0.0035,
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0091,
"market_prob": 0.5,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4909
},
"p_final": 0.5091,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0735,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2105,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5091
}
},
"edge": 0.0439,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.4991,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2111,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0087,
"ev": -0.0649,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4495
},
"p_final": 0.4495,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0649,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2322,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0096,
"ev": -0.0987,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5496
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0427,
"ev": 0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1614574,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0363,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fuenlabrada",
"home": "Uni\u00f3n Adarve"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0035,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3116,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3472222222222222,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1511,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1614574,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T10:01:25.740966+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Kumpulan 7 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Las Rozas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Móstoles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Leganés II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Galapagar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | RC Alcobendas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Unión Adarve | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Parla Escuela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Torrejón | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | SS Reyes II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Alcobendas Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leganés II | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | Las Rozas | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Galapagar | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 5 | RC Alcobendas | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Parla Escuela | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Móstoles | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
| 10 | Unión Adarve | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano II | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 | Torrejón | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
| 18 | Alcobendas Sport | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
