The model missed the final outcome (Real Aranjuez win 3–5).
The model had projected SS Reyes II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 SS Reyes II Real Aranjuez ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned SS Reyes II; match finished Real Aranjuez
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Real Aranjuez win 3–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · SS Reyes II 1.38 — Real Aranjuez 1.22
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Aranjuez win · 3–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Real Aranjuez win · SS Reyes II 3–5 Real Aranjuez
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
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"away_xg": 1.22,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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"prob_edge": -12.1,
"value_pct": -23.7,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_score_rate": 70.5,
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"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 4,
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"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
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},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 2,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "SS Reyes II or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "SS Reyes II or Real Aranjuez",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Real Aranjuez",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "SS Reyes II or Real Aranjuez",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "SS Reyes II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 10.9,
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"label": "Away",
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"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.52
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.67,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 16:01:01",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 15:32:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "SS Reyes II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.1,
"gap_pp": -7.13,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.23,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.67,
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"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.52,
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"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.48,
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
"closing": 3.2,
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},
{
"closing": 3.52,
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},
{
"closing": 2.19,
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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},
"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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},
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10204.36,
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2023,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0136,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.4768,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
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},
"p_final": 0.4904,
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"raw_edge_pp": 6.7,
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"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2023,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.9,
"text": "-17.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.5,
"text": "+4.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0445,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10040.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1714,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.1,
"text": "-17.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0404,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.0,
"text": "-4.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "SS Reyes II",
"sort_key": 1789.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.13,
"hero_label": "SS Reyes II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"market_team": "SS Reyes II",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "SS Reyes II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1085,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SS Reyes II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SS Reyes II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SS Reyes II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SS Reyes II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614582 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.13,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "SS Reyes II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1085,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SS Reyes II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SS Reyes II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SS Reyes II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SS Reyes II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614582 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SS Reyes II 1.38 xG vs Real Aranjuez 1.22 \u2192 SS Reyes II 39.0%",
"Market: SS Reyes II ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: SS Reyes II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SS Reyes II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "SS Reyes II",
"market_prob": 46.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Real Aranjuez",
"market_prob": 25.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.22,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.22,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.58,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.58,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SS Reyes II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "SS Reyes II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates SS Reyes II\u0027s win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 7.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SS Reyes II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "SS Reyes II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SS Reyes II 1.38 xG vs Real Aranjuez 1.22 \u2192 SS Reyes II 39.0%",
"Market: SS Reyes II ~46.1% implied",
"Market Steam: SS Reyes II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SS Reyes II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.13,
"hero_label": "SS Reyes II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on SS Reyes II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for SS Reyes II relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on SS Reyes II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices SS Reyes II above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "SS Reyes II",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices SS Reyes II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.13,
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SS Reyes II",
"market_prob_pct": 46.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.31,
"edge_pp": 1.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.23,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.81,
"edge_pp": 5.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Aranjuez",
"market_prob_pct": 25.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for SS Reyes II relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SS Reyes II (46.1%).",
"SS Reyes II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 51.02,
"closing_odds": 1.96,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 51.02,
"entry_odds": 1.96,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 1.95,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "SS Reyes II",
"steam_score": 21,
"steam_team_name": "SS Reyes II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-aranjuez",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Aranjuez",
"away_team_id": 15352,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/15352.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Aranjuez",
"away_team_public_id": "4MXDWuxwOOFs3a",
"away_team_slug": "real-aranjuez",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1614582,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "SS Reyes II",
"home_team_id": 26545,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26545.webp",
"home_team_name": "SS Reyes II",
"home_team_public_id": "1cF4uAS4vJs9mB",
"home_team_slug": "ss-reyes-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ss-reyes-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 7",
"league_id": 445,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/445.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 7",
"league_public_id": "5fXIFx0UqvnCfz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 16:00:00",
"public_id": "5CogCEaq88ov12",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2738,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.2567,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2567,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.461
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2726
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0842,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2567,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.461
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2862
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5358,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2567,
"draw": 0.2823,
"home": 0.461
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4228
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.52,
"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.2841,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0171,
"ev": -0.0547,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.1205,
"ev": -0.2363,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2225,
"alpha_yes": 0.2023,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0658,
"edge_yes": 0.0658,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"ev_yes": 0.0445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0609,
"implied_no": 0.5218,
"implied_yes": 0.4782,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5083
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2023,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4768,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4904
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5083,
"p_final_yes": 0.4904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2061,
"alpha_under": 0.2267,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": 0.0522,
"edge_under": -0.0522,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0507,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0962,
"implied_over": 0.4298,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4259,
"implied_under": 0.5702,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5741,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2061,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.4259,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4375
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2267,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5741,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5614
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4375,
"p_final_under": 0.5614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1085,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1085,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SS Reyes II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SS Reyes II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SS Reyes II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side SS Reyes II \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.30 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1614582 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.30 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SS Reyes II).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1714,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SS Reyes II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2023,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.4768,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.015,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5083
},
"p_final": 0.4904,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0609,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2023,
"best_odd": 1.915,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4768,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4904
}
},
"edge": 0.0658,
"ev": 0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4782,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2061,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.4259,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2061,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0507,
"implied_prob": 0.4259,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4375
},
"p_final": 0.4375,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0507,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2267,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0127,
"ev": -0.0962,
"implied_prob": 0.5741,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5614
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0522,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1614582,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Aranjuez",
"home": "SS Reyes II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.020379,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4298,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1714,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5102040816326531,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2362,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1614582,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T16:01:03.583100+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Kumpulan 7 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Galapagar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Las Rozas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leganés II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | RC Alcobendas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Parla Escuela | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Torrejón | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Villanueva Pardillo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colonia Moscardó | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 8 |
| 2 | Galapagar | 4 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 | Leganés II | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Las Rozas | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | RC Alcobendas | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 6 | Parla Escuela | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Trival Valderas | 4 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Unión Adarve | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Fuenlabrada | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Móstoles | 4 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 12 | Cala Pozuelo | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Villanueva Pardillo | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Aranjuez | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Torrejón | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
