AI correctly predicted the Manchester City Wanita win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Manchester City Wanita Manchester City Wanita ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic W | 16.6% | 3.7% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 27.9% | 5.4% | +22.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Manchester City Wanita | 55.5% | 90.9% | -35.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Manchester City Wanita's win probability at 90.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 55.5%, a difference of 35.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Manchester City Wanita win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.46, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Manchester City Wanita higher (91.0% vs model 55.5%, 35.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Manchester City Wanita win 0–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 16.6% · Draw 27.9% · Manchester City Wanita 55.5%
- xG · Charlton Athletic W 0.64 — Manchester City Wanita 0.82
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Charlton Athletic W 25.59 · Draw 17.36 · Manchester City Wanita 1.03
- Implied 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 3.7% · Draw 5.4% · Manchester City Wanita 90.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Charlton Athletic W 25.59 · Draw 17.36 · Manchester City Wanita 1.03
- Implied 1X2 · Charlton Athletic W 3.7% · Draw 5.4% · Manchester City Wanita 90.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Manchester City Wanita win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Super Wanita FA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
