The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Brighton Wanita at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Brighton Wanita Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Wanita | 40.4% | 62.8% | -22.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.9% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Aston Villa Wanita | 30.1% | 15.3% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Brighton Wanita's win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Brighton Wanita; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brighton Wanita by 22.4 percentage points (62.8% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brighton Wanita 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Aston Villa Wanita 30.1%
- xG · Brighton Wanita 1.41 — Aston Villa Wanita 1.19
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brighton Wanita 1.50 · Draw 4.31 · Aston Villa Wanita 6.15
- Implied 1X2 · Brighton Wanita 62.8% · Draw 21.9% · Aston Villa Wanita 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Brighton Wanita 1.50 · Draw 4.31 · Aston Villa Wanita 6.15
- Implied 1X2 · Brighton Wanita 62.8% · Draw 21.9% · Aston Villa Wanita 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Super Wanita FA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United Wanita | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton Wanita | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City Wanita | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
