The model missed the final outcome (1. FC Magdeburg win 3–0).
The model had projected 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 34.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Magdeburg ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 33.0% | 45.4% | -12.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.5% | 25.6% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 34.5% | 29.0% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates 1. FC Magdeburg's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.0%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah 1. FC Magdeburg win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC Magdeburg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned 1. FC Kaiserslautern; match finished 1. FC Magdeburg
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 12.4 percentage points (47.0% vs model 34.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 1. FC Magdeburg 33.0% · Draw 32.5% · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34.5%
- xG · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.12
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Magdeburg 2.13 · Draw 3.78 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Magdeburg 45.4% · Draw 25.6% · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 1. FC Magdeburg 2.13 · Draw 3.78 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · 1. FC Magdeburg 45.4% · Draw 25.6% · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 1. FC Magdeburg win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
12/100
Monitoring Confidence
20/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
1. FC Magdeburg win · 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"pick": "No",
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
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{
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{
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"prob": 67.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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},
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"market": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:01:33",
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"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"label": "0-0",
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},
{
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.09,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"text": "-41.5%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
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},
{
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},
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}
},
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"raw_pct": 44.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3304,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -33.0,
"text": "-33.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.4445,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 53.5,
"sort_key": 10400.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 46.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0181,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.8,
"text": "+1.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0383,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.8,
"text": "+3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"sort_key": 5230.64,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"alert_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.45,
"hero_label": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"market_team": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"model_prob_pct": 34.5,
"model_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 34.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the value side (34.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +59.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.09,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.12,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.09 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -17%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"steam_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 34.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the value side (34.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +59.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 xG vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.12 \u2192 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34.5%",
"Market: 1. FC Magdeburg ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: 1. FC Kaiserslautern odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.45,
"fair_prob": 32.98,
"label": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"market_prob": 45.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob": 32.53,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.52,
"fair_prob": 34.49,
"label": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"market_prob": 28.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.14,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.14,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.28,
"fair_prob": 46.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.28,
"fair_prob": 53.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.98,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"market_prob_pct": 45.43,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "1. FC Kaiserslautern"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates 1. FC Magdeburg\u0027s win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.0%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.5,
"model_prob_pct": 34.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.09 xG vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.12 \u2192 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34.5%",
"Market: 1. FC Magdeburg ~29.0% implied",
"Market Drift: 1. FC Kaiserslautern odds \u2191 +6.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.45,
"hero_label": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "1. FC Kaiserslautern odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, 1. FC Kaiserslautern has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC Magdeburg than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about 1. FC Magdeburg than the current fair estimate.",
"However, 1. FC Kaiserslautern has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors 1. FC Magdeburg more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, 1. FC Kaiserslautern has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.5 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.5,
"max_prob_pct": 34.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices 1. FC Magdeburg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.45,
"edge_pp": -12.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.98,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"market_prob_pct": 45.43,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.93,
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.53,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.52,
"edge_pp": 5.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"market_prob_pct": 28.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers 1. FC Magdeburg (29.0%).",
"However, 1. FC Kaiserslautern has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.7%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 1. FC Kaiserslautern, Market \u2192 1. FC Magdeburg, while 1. FC Kaiserslautern odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on 1. FC Kaiserslautern (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.34",
"3.17",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.34 \u2192 2.68 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 42h 11m",
"pick_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.34"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.68"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.34,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.34"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on 1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"steam_score": 52,
"steam_team_name": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "1-fc-kaiserslautern",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"away_team_id": 745,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/745.webp",
"away_team_name": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"away_team_public_id": "3EimfAus4BMWRs",
"away_team_slug": "1-fc-kaiserslautern",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576175,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"home_team_id": 179,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/179.webp",
"home_team_name": "1. FC Magdeburg",
"home_team_public_id": "1gKOap01QyLma4",
"home_team_slug": "1-fc-magdeburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "1-fc-magdeburg",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 11:00:00",
"public_id": "5DA1jfwtINEqOg",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Magdeburg",
"venue_name": "Avnet-Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2897,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.4543
},
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"p_final": 0.3048
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2687,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.256,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2897,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.4543
},
"model_prob": 0.3255,
"p_final": 0.2747
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.366,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1294,
"implied_prob": 0.4543,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2897,
"draw": 0.256,
"home": 0.4543
},
"model_prob": 0.3298,
"p_final": 0.4087
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0452,
"ev": 0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.3446
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.061,
"ev": 0.2305,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.3255
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1396,
"ev": -0.2974,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3298
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3056,
"alpha_yes": 0.4202,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1828,
"edge_yes": -0.1828,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4445,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0735,
"ev_yes": -0.3304,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1817,
"implied_no": 0.3522,
"implied_yes": 0.6478,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3056,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4202,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0763,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.5703
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4089,
"p_final_yes": 0.5703,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3712,
"alpha_under": 0.27,
"best_over_odd": 1.54,
"best_under_odd": 2.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.495,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.42,
"edge_over": -0.2414,
"edge_under": 0.2414,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4148,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.208,
"ev_under": 0.5934,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0797,
"implied_over": 0.6214,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6181,
"implied_under": 0.3786,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3819,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3712,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0884,
"ev": -0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.6181,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.5297
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.27,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0643,
"ev": 0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"p_final": 0.4462
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5297,
"p_final_under": 0.4462,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.21,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5934,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5934,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.4,
"summary": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.5934,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5934,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 34.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the value side (34.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +59.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +59.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +59.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+59.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from 1. FC Kaiserslautern, but the model still strongly favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -17.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.465,
"draw_prob": 0.3255,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3446,
"over_prob": 0.38,
"total_xg": 2.21,
"under_prob": 0.62,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0383,
"implied_prob": 0.256,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3255,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0181,
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "1. FC Kaiserslautern"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3056,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0555,
"market_prob": 0.3534,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3056,
"best_odd": 2.625,
"edge": 0.0555,
"ev": 0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"p_final": 0.4089,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0735,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4202,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0763,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.6466,
"model_prob": 0.465,
"p_final": 0.5703
}
},
"edge": 0.1828,
"ev": 0.4445,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"model_prob": 0.535,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.27,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0643,
"market_prob": 0.3819,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.62,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3712,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0884,
"ev": -0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.6181,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.5297
},
"p_final": 0.4462,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0797,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.27,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0643,
"ev": 0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"p_final": 0.4462
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2414,
"ev": 0.5934,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576175,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5934,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3446,
"draw": 0.3255,
"home": 0.3298
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4445,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4445,
"implied_prob": 0.3522,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.535,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "1. FC Kaiserslautern",
"home": "1. FC Magdeburg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257536,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5934,
"implied_prob": 0.3786,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.62,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0181,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2897,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3446,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+15.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576175,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:01:36.023489+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk 1. FC Magdeburg & 1. FC Kaiserslautern!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
2. Bundesliga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 4 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 4 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 8 |
| 4 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 12 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 9 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 6 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 5 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 13 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 9 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 4 |
