AI correctly predicted the VfL Wolfsburg win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 5-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | 59.4% | 64.4% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 23.4% | 19.5% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 17.1% | 16.1% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (VfL Wolfsburg win 5–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.07) — 6 goals materialised
- VfL Wolfsburg attacking xG significantly stronger (2.04 vs 1.03)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (VfL Wolfsburg win 5–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg 59.5% · Draw 23.4% · SV Darmstadt 98 17.1%
- xG · VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 — SV Darmstadt 98 1.03
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · VfL Wolfsburg 1.50 · Draw 5.00 · SV Darmstadt 98 5.93
- Implied 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg 64.4% · Draw 19.3% · SV Darmstadt 98 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · VfL Wolfsburg 1.50 · Draw 4.95 · SV Darmstadt 98 6.01
- Implied 1X2 · VfL Wolfsburg 64.4% · Draw 19.5% · SV Darmstadt 98 16.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result VfL Wolfsburg win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
71/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
75/100
Betting Confidence
74/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
VfL Wolfsburg win · VfL Wolfsburg 5–1 SV Darmstadt 98
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.1%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"decision_strength": 8.8,
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Wolfsburg at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Wolfsburg as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0751,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6666666666666666,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.98,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.03,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.04,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.04,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.04 \u00b7 Away xG 1.03 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +51%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"steam_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Wolfsburg at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Wolfsburg as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0751,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6666666666666666,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG vs SV Darmstadt 98 1.03 \u2192 VfL Wolfsburg 59.4%",
"Market: VfL Wolfsburg ~64.4% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +21.1%"
],
"one_liner": "VfL Wolfsburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.01 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.98,
"fair_prob": 59.43,
"label": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"market_prob": 64.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob": 23.42,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob": 17.14,
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"market_prob": 16.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.83,
"fair_prob": 59.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob": 40.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.34,
"fair_prob": 57.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.34,
"fair_prob": 42.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.43,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"market_prob_pct": 64.41,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 64.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.0,
"model_prob_pct": 59.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "VfL Wolfsburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 75,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VfL Wolfsburg 2.04 xG vs SV Darmstadt 98 1.03 \u2192 VfL Wolfsburg 59.4%",
"Market: VfL Wolfsburg ~64.4% implied",
"Market Drift: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +21.1%"
],
"one_liner": "VfL Wolfsburg projects stronger on expected goals (+1.01 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.98,
"hero_label": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "SV Darmstadt 98 odds lengthened \u2191 +21.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, SV Darmstadt 98 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, SV Darmstadt 98 has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, SV Darmstadt 98 has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on SV Darmstadt 98."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 36.0 pp (at 59.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 36.0,
"max_prob_pct": 59.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.98,
"edge_pp": -4.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.43,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"market_prob_pct": 64.41,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.9,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.06,
"edge_pp": 1.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 17.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"market_prob_pct": 16.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from SV Darmstadt 98 \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers VfL Wolfsburg (64.4%).",
"However, SV Darmstadt 98 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.1%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"VfL Wolfsburg \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.67,
"closing_odds": 1.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.67,
"entry_odds": 1.5,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened SV Darmstadt 98 together (21.1% drift, score 75) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.01",
"5.38",
"4.75"
],
"display": "6.00 \u2192 4.17 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 45m",
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.17"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
6.01,
5.93,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.1 56.0,3.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.01"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +21.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: SV Darmstadt 98 odds \u2191 +21.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"steam_score": 75,
"steam_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sv-darmstadt-98",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"away_team_id": 181,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/181.webp",
"away_team_name": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"away_team_public_id": "3SeNfZDltfEtbn",
"away_team_slug": "sv-darmstadt-98",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576187,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"home_team_id": 161,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/161.webp",
"home_team_name": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"home_team_public_id": "2uCxpPfY23JDxP",
"home_team_slug": "vfl-wolfsburg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vfl-wolfsburg",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 16:30:00",
"public_id": "2YXrbIOCcFkILu",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Wolfsburg",
"venue_name": "Volkswagen Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1968,
"best_odd": 6.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0021,
"ev": -0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.1608,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1608,
"draw": 0.1952,
"home": 0.6441
},
"model_prob": 0.1714,
"p_final": 0.1628
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1884,
"best_odd": 4.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": 0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.1952,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1608,
"draw": 0.1952,
"home": 0.6441
},
"model_prob": 0.234,
"p_final": 0.2025
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5555,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1608,
"draw": 0.1952,
"home": 0.6441
},
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"p_final": 0.6166
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.01,
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": 0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.1664,
"model_prob": 0.1714
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.95,
"edge": 0.0319,
"ev": 0.1581,
"implied_prob": 0.202,
"model_prob": 0.234
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.072,
"ev": -0.108,
"implied_prob": 0.6667,
"model_prob": 0.5947
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3952,
"alpha_yes": 0.5434,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0434,
"edge_yes": -0.0434,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0914,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.04,
"ev_yes": -0.1134,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1092,
"implied_no": 0.3846,
"implied_yes": 0.6154,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3952,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3887,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5434,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1092,
"implied_prob": 0.6113,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4042,
"p_final_yes": 0.59,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5231,
"alpha_under": 0.3804,
"best_over_odd": 1.45,
"best_under_odd": 2.92,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.405,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.665,
"edge_over": -0.0683,
"edge_under": 0.0683,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1416,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1262,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0164,
"implied_over": 0.6603,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6548,
"implied_under": 0.3397,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3452,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5231,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6548,
"model_prob": 0.592,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3804,
"best_odd": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.0164,
"implied_prob": 0.3452,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"p_final": 0.3691
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6219,
"p_final_under": 0.3691,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Wolfsburg at 59.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 64.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Wolfsburg as the value side (59.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Wolfsburg",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Wolfsburg).",
"Decision strength: 8.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0751,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6666666666666666,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 51.1,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 51%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.01"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.01
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.572,
"draw_prob": 0.234,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5947,
"over_prob": 0.592,
"total_xg": 3.07,
"under_prob": 0.408,
"xg_diff": 1.01
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.0751,
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "VfL Wolfsburg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3952,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.3887,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.428,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3952,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.3887,
"model_prob": 0.428,
"p_final": 0.4042
},
"p_final": 0.4042,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.04,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5434,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0214,
"ev": -0.1092,
"implied_prob": 0.6113,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"p_final": 0.59
}
},
"edge": 0.0434,
"ev": 0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3804,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0239,
"market_prob": 0.3452,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.408,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5231,
"best_odd": 1.405,
"edge": -0.0328,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.6548,
"model_prob": 0.592,
"p_final": 0.6219
},
"p_final": 0.3691,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0164,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3804,
"best_odd": 2.665,
"edge": 0.0239,
"ev": -0.0164,
"implied_prob": 0.3452,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"p_final": 0.3691
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0683,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.3397,
"model_prob": 0.408,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576187,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1714,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.5947
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.428,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.3846,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.428,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SV Darmstadt 98",
"home": "VfL Wolfsburg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078091,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.3397,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.408,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0751,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.6441,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5947,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6666666666666666,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-10.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576187,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T16:29:38.316554+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Bundesliga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
| 6 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 5 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 7 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 11 |
| 4 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 13 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 4 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 6 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 11 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 16 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 7 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 10 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 |
