The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected VfL Bochum at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 VfL Bochum Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Bochum | 38.5% | 52.8% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 31.9% | 23.3% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates VfL Bochum's win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about VfL Bochum than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned VfL Bochum; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on VfL Bochum by 14.3 percentage points (52.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · VfL Bochum 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31.9%
- xG · VfL Bochum 1.37 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.23
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · VfL Bochum 1.96 · Draw 3.85 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · VfL Bochum 49.3% · Draw 25.1% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · VfL Bochum 1.83 · Draw 4.05 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.15
- Implied 1X2 · VfL Bochum 52.8% · Draw 23.9% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
28/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.83
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · VfL Bochum 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.1459,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1569,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0293,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 5223.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
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"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.34,
"hero_label": "VfL Bochum",
"market_prob_pct": 52.8,
"market_team": "VfL Bochum",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "VfL Bochum",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3259,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Bochum at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Bochum as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Bochum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side VfL Bochum \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576170 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1569,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "VfL Bochum",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3259,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Bochum at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Bochum as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Bochum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side VfL Bochum \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576170 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1569,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VfL Bochum 1.37 xG vs SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth 1.23 \u2192 VfL Bochum 38.5%",
"Market: VfL Bochum ~52.8% implied",
"Market Steam: VfL Bochum +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean VfL Bochum with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.34,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "VfL Bochum",
"market_prob": 52.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.64,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"market_prob": 23.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.32,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.32,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "VfL Bochum",
"market_prob_pct": 52.83,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "VfL Bochum"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates VfL Bochum\u0027s win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "VfL Bochum",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "VfL Bochum \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: VfL Bochum 1.37 xG vs SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth 1.23 \u2192 VfL Bochum 38.5%",
"Market: VfL Bochum ~52.8% implied",
"Market Steam: VfL Bochum +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean VfL Bochum with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.34,
"hero_label": "VfL Bochum",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about VfL Bochum than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on VfL Bochum.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about VfL Bochum than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on VfL Bochum."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors VfL Bochum more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on VfL Bochum (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on VfL Bochum."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "VfL Bochum",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices VfL Bochum higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.34,
"edge_pp": -14.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "VfL Bochum",
"market_prob_pct": 52.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.7,
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.87,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.64,
"edge_pp": 8.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"market_prob_pct": 23.3,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on VfL Bochum.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers VfL Bochum (52.8%).",
"VfL Bochum \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.9,
"pick_team": "VfL Bochum",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "VfL Bochum",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "spvgg-greuther-furth",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"away_team_id": 178,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/178.webp",
"away_team_name": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"away_team_public_id": "5bNbSmiHGp0Xpu",
"away_team_slug": "spvgg-greuther-furth",
"country_code": "DE",
"country_display_name": "Germany",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
"country_id": 60,
"country_name": "Germany",
"fixture_id": 1576170,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "VfL Bochum",
"home_team_id": 176,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/176.webp",
"home_team_name": "VfL Bochum",
"home_team_public_id": "2zxSBzfmu46GYE",
"home_team_slug": "vfl-bochum",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vfl-bochum",
"league_country": "Germany",
"league_country_display": "Germany",
"league_display_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_id": 79,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
"league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
"league_public_id": "0Lxi3Z4aPBtEjI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 11:00:00",
"public_id": "345L8PBtYI2sdS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bochum",
"venue_name": "Vonovia Ruhrstadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.174,
"best_odd": 4.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0293,
"implied_prob": 0.233,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.233,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.5283
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.248
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1829,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": 0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2387,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.233,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.5283
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2492
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4707,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0676,
"ev": -0.1569,
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.233,
"draw": 0.2387,
"home": 0.5283
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4607
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.15,
"edge": 0.0785,
"ev": 0.3259,
"implied_prob": 0.241,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.049,
"ev": 0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.2469,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1618,
"ev": -0.2961,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3789,
"alpha_yes": 0.521,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0632,
"edge_yes": -0.0632,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1172,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0153,
"ev_yes": -0.1459,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1256,
"implied_no": 0.3928,
"implied_yes": 0.6072,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3789,
"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0153,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4155
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.521,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6093,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5753
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4155,
"p_final_yes": 0.5753,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.506,
"alpha_under": 0.368,
"best_over_odd": 1.63,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": -0.1092,
"edge_under": 0.1092,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2143,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.147,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0355,
"implied_over": 0.5912,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5923,
"implied_under": 0.4088,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4077,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.506,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.147,
"implied_prob": 0.5923,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5365
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.368,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0406,
"ev": 0.0355,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4483
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5365,
"p_final_under": 0.4483,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3259,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3259,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates VfL Bochum at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies VfL Bochum as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "VfL Bochum",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side VfL Bochum \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.56 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +33% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1576170 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.56 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +23.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (VfL Bochum).",
"Decision strength: 5.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +33% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1569,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
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"ev": 0.0293,
"implied_prob": 0.233,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0676,
"ev": -0.1569,
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "VfL Bochum"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0247,
"market_prob": 0.3907,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.37,
"edge": 0.0247,
"ev": -0.0153,
"implied_prob": 0.3907,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4155
},
"p_final": 0.4155,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0153,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.521,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.034,
"ev": -0.1256,
"implied_prob": 0.6093,
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"p_final": 0.5753
}
},
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3928,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.368,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0406,
"market_prob": 0.4077,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.506,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.147,
"implied_prob": 0.5923,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5365
},
"p_final": 0.4483,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0355,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0406,
"ev": 0.0355,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1092,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1576170,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3928,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1172,
"implied_prob": 0.3928,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
"home": "VfL Bochum"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4088,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1569,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5283,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2962,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1576170,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:01:22.453977+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
2. Bundesliga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 4 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 | 5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | +2.3 | 4 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 6.0 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 8 |
| 4 | Hertha BSC | 4 | 7.5 | 5.6 | +1.9 | 12 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 4 | 7.7 | 6.0 | +1.7 | 9 |
| 6 | Holstein Kiel | 4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 6 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | +1.2 | 7 |
| 9 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 9.4 | 8.5 | +0.9 | 4 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 6.9 | 7.0 | -0.1 | 5 |
| 11 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | -1.0 | 13 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 4 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 5 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 4 | 5.7 | 7.7 | -2.0 | 6 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 5 | 2.0 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 4 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 3.4 | 5.8 | -2.4 | 4 |
| 17 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 5 | 4.7 | 7.7 | -3.0 | 9 |
| 18 | Energie Cottbus | 4 | 5.0 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 4 |
