AI correctly predicted the Newington Youth win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Newington Youth Newington Youth ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newington Youth | 40.9% | 53.1% | -12.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.5% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Ballinamallard United | 29.7% | 23.4% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Newington Youth's win probability at 53.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Newington Youth win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Newington Youth than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Newington Youth higher (53.1% vs model 40.9%, 12.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Newington Youth win 4–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Newington Youth 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Ballinamallard United 29.6%
- xG · Newington Youth 1.42 — Ballinamallard United 1.18
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Newington Youth 1.67 · Draw 3.78 · Ballinamallard United 3.79
- Implied 1X2 · Newington Youth 53.1% · Draw 23.5% · Ballinamallard United 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Newington Youth 1.67 · Draw 3.78 · Ballinamallard United 3.79
- Implied 1X2 · Newington Youth 53.1% · Draw 23.5% · Ballinamallard United 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Newington Youth win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
38/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Newington Youth win · Newington Youth 4–0 Ballinamallard United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2527abc8c329a5aa00ad7be7a35985f949b3efc2f96d89ef9a8087bc08d37997",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Newington Youth or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Newington Youth"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Newington Youth",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1217,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.67,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Newington Youth Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.88,
"market_odds": 1.67,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -18.9,
"value_pct": -31.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Newington Youth or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Newington Youth or Ballinamallard United",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ballinamallard United",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Newington Youth or Ballinamallard United",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Newington Youth"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 12.6,
"implied_prob": 26.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Ballinamallard United Win",
"model_prob": 29.7,
"odds": 3.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ballinamallard United",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.41,
"draw": 23.47,
"home": 53.12
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:00:43",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:38:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Newington Youth",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.12,
"gap_pp": -12.17,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.47,
"gap_pp": 5.92,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.41,
"gap_pp": 6.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.89,
"gap_pp": -15.69,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.11,
"gap_pp": 15.69,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.12,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.78,
"early": 3.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.47,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
"early": 3.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 63.89,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.11,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.6,
"ev": 0.054,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0218,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3592,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.6408,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6108
},
"p_final": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3028,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.3592,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3261,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3261,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10443.49,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0145,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.38
},
"p_final": 0.38,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1475,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0501,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6146
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1704,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.0,
"text": "+17.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1885,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.9,
"text": "-18.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1704,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10153.36,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2125,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.2,
"text": "-21.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0485,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Newington Youth",
"sort_key": 1787.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "Newington Youth",
"market_prob_pct": 53.1,
"market_team": "Newington Youth",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "Newington Youth",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newington Youth at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newington Youth as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newington Youth",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2125,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.21,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Newington Youth",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newington Youth at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newington Youth as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newington Youth",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2125,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Newington Youth 1.42 xG vs Ballinamallard United 1.18 \u2192 Newington Youth 40.9%",
"Market: Newington Youth ~53.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Newington Youth +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Newington Youth with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Newington Youth",
"market_prob": 53.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.28,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Ballinamallard United",
"market_prob": 23.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.11,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.11,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Newington Youth",
"market_prob_pct": 53.12,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Newington Youth"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Newington Youth\u0027s win probability at 53.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Newington Youth",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.2,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Newington Youth \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Newington Youth 1.42 xG vs Ballinamallard United 1.18 \u2192 Newington Youth 40.9%",
"Market: Newington Youth ~53.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Newington Youth +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Newington Youth with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.21,
"hero_label": "Newington Youth",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Newington Youth than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Newington Youth.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Newington Youth than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Newington Youth."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Newington Youth more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Newington Youth (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Newington Youth."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.21,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Newington Youth",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Newington Youth higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.21,
"edge_pp": -12.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Newington Youth",
"market_prob_pct": 53.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.93,
"edge_pp": 5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.28,
"edge_pp": 6.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ballinamallard United",
"market_prob_pct": 23.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Newington Youth.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Newington Youth (53.1%).",
"Newington Youth \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
"closing_odds": 1.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
"entry_odds": 1.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "Newington Youth",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Newington Youth",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "ballinamallard-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ballinamallard United",
"away_team_id": 5339,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5339.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ballinamallard United",
"away_team_public_id": "5ce66yMkpvANKb",
"away_team_slug": "ballinamallard-united",
"country_code": "GB-NIR",
"country_display_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-nir.svg",
"country_id": 119,
"country_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1564874,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Newington Youth",
"home_team_id": 11118,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11118.webp",
"home_team_name": "Newington Youth",
"home_team_public_id": "1ARW0O7Cz1jQfE",
"home_team_slug": "newington-youth",
"ht.home_team_slug": "newington-youth",
"league_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_display_name": "NIFL Championship",
"league_id": 407,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/407.webp",
"league_name": "NIFL Championship",
"league_public_id": "1qJ6WPidOzchX0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4k5JLqJjGSKZAL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2719,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0485,
"implied_prob": 0.2341,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2341,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.5312
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2511
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2734,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0162,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.2347,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2341,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.5312
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2509
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4905,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0597,
"ev": -0.2125,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2341,
"draw": 0.2347,
"home": 0.5312
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4715
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.0327,
"ev": 0.1239,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.0294,
"ev": 0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.1892,
"ev": -0.316,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1548,
"alpha_yes": 0.2128,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0911,
"edge_yes": -0.0911,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1704,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0501,
"ev_yes": -0.1885,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1149,
"implied_no": 0.3679,
"implied_yes": 0.6321,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.38
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6146
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.38,
"p_final_yes": 0.6146,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1886,
"alpha_under": 0.1371,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.56,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.515,
"edge_over": -0.156,
"edge_under": 0.156,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1387,
"ev_under": 0.3261,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0418,
"implied_over": 0.638,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6408,
"implied_under": 0.362,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3592,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.6408,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6108
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.3592,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.381
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6108,
"p_final_under": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3261,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3261,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3261,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Newington Youth at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Newington Youth as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Newington Youth",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Newington Youth).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2125,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0597,
"ev": -0.2125,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Newington Youth"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0145,
"market_prob": 0.3655,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0501,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.38
},
"p_final": 0.38,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0501,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2128,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0199,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.6146
}
},
"edge": 0.0911,
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0218,
"market_prob": 0.3592,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1886,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.0299,
"ev": -0.1387,
"implied_prob": 0.6408,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6108
},
"p_final": 0.381,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1371,
"best_odd": 2.515,
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.3592,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.381
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.156,
"ev": 0.3261,
"implied_prob": 0.362,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1564874,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3261,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ballinamallard United",
"home": "Newington Youth"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.118244,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3261,
"implied_prob": 0.362,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2125,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.2%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.316,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1564874,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:00:47.912854+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Newington Youth & Ballinamallard United!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
NIFL Championship — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Annagh United | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | H&W Welders | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Ballinamallard United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Institute | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ards | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Dundela | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 8 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 17 |
| 3 | Queen's University | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 16 |
| 4 | Annagh United | 8 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | H&W Welders | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Dundela | 8 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Institute | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Ards | 8 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 5 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 |
