AI correctly predicted the Loughgall win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Loughgall Loughgall ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loughgall | 43.8% | 42.7% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.5% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Newry City AFC | 27.1% | 30.8% | -3.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Loughgall win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Loughgall attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Loughgall win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Loughgall 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Newry City AFC 27.1%
- xG · Loughgall 1.48 — Newry City AFC 1.12
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Loughgall 2.08 · Draw 3.35 · Newry City AFC 2.89
- Implied 1X2 · Loughgall 42.7% · Draw 26.5% · Newry City AFC 30.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Loughgall 2.08 · Draw 3.35 · Newry City AFC 2.89
- Implied 1X2 · Loughgall 42.7% · Draw 26.5% · Newry City AFC 30.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Loughgall win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
81/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Loughgall win · Loughgall 2–1 Newry City AFC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"tone": "ok"
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},
{
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],
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},
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"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
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"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
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"ok": true,
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.68,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.48,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.48,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.48 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Loughgall",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Loughgall at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Loughgall as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Loughgall",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Loughgall 1.48 xG vs Newry City AFC 1.12 \u2192 Loughgall 43.8%",
"Market: Loughgall ~42.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Loughgall +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Loughgall with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 43.84,
"label": "Loughgall",
"market_prob": 42.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.56,
"fair_prob": 29.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.68,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "Newry City AFC",
"market_prob": 30.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.91,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.91,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.63,
"fair_prob": 53.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.63,
"fair_prob": 46.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Newry City AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.75,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Loughgall"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Loughgall",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.1,
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Loughgall \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 94,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Loughgall 1.48 xG vs Newry City AFC 1.12 \u2192 Loughgall 43.8%",
"Market: Loughgall ~42.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Loughgall +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Loughgall with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.68,
"hero_label": "Newry City AFC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.8 pp (at 43.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Newry City AFC",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.12,
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Loughgall",
"market_prob_pct": 42.72,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.56,
"edge_pp": 2.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.68,
"edge_pp": -3.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Newry City AFC",
"market_prob_pct": 30.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Loughgall (42.7%).",
"Loughgall \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.6,
"closing_odds": 2.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.6,
"entry_odds": 2.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.15,
"pick_team": "Loughgall",
"steam_score": 23,
"steam_team_name": "Loughgall",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "newry-city-afc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Newry City AFC",
"away_team_id": 5346,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5346.webp",
"away_team_name": "Newry City AFC",
"away_team_public_id": "3x4TTNSIDmivXU",
"away_team_slug": "newry-city-afc",
"country_code": "GB-NIR",
"country_display_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-nir.svg",
"country_id": 119,
"country_name": "Northern-Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1564882,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Loughgall",
"home_team_id": 5345,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5345.webp",
"home_team_name": "Loughgall",
"home_team_public_id": "5KPSLP5Ib2lMrQ",
"home_team_slug": "loughgall",
"ht.home_team_slug": "loughgall",
"league_country": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Northern-Ireland",
"league_display_name": "NIFL Championship",
"league_id": 407,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/407.webp",
"league_name": "NIFL Championship",
"league_public_id": "1qJ6WPidOzchX0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4LmAkgf5bMw507",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Loughgall",
"venue_name": "Lakeview Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4253,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0156,
"ev": -0.1563,
"implied_prob": 0.3075,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2653,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.2709,
"p_final": 0.2919
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2886,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0073,
"ev": -0.0868,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2653,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.2726
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4424,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3075,
"draw": 0.2653,
"home": 0.4272
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"p_final": 0.4322
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.0751,
"ev": -0.217,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.2709
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0079,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.088,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"model_prob": 0.4385
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.162,
"alpha_yes": 0.2228,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0663,
"edge_yes": -0.0663,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1043,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0653,
"ev_yes": -0.1585,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1124,
"implied_no": 0.3977,
"implied_yes": 0.6023,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.4082
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4082,
"p_final_yes": 0.5878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2142,
"alpha_under": 0.1947,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0891,
"edge_under": 0.0891,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1104,
"ev_under": 0.181,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0418,
"implied_over": 0.5711,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5718,
"implied_under": 0.4289,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4282,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5526,
"p_final_under": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.181,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.181,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.181,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Loughgall at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Loughgall as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Loughgall",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +18.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +18.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+18.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Loughgall).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.536,
"draw_prob": 0.2906,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4385,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.101,
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Loughgall"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.3974,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.464,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.162,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.3974,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.4082
},
"p_final": 0.4082,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0653,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2228,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0148,
"ev": -0.1124,
"implied_prob": 0.6026,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.5878
}
},
"edge": 0.0663,
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.4282,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2142,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": -0.0192,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.5718,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5526
},
"p_final": 0.4457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0418,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1947,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0418,
"implied_prob": 0.4282,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4457
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0891,
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1564882,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.181,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2709,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4385
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.464,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1043,
"implied_prob": 0.3977,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.464,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Newry City AFC",
"home": "Loughgall"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.065631,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.181,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4807692307692307,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0879,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1564882,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T13:56:00.664413+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
NIFL Championship — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington Youth | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Annagh United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | H&W Welders | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Institute | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 10 | Dundela | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Ards | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Loughgall | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newington Youth | 9 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 20 |
| 2 | Annagh United | 9 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 16 |
| 5 | Dundela | 9 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | H&W Welders | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 | Warrenpoint Town | 9 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballinamallard United | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Newry City AFC | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Institute | 9 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Loughgall | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Ards | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 10 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 9 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 3 |
