The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Hradec Králové II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Hradec Králové II Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velké Hamry | 31.5% | 24.8% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.5% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Hradec Králové II | 39.0% | 51.7% | -12.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Hradec Králové II's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Králové II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Hradec Králové II; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hradec Králové II by 12.7 percentage points (51.7% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Velké Hamry 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hradec Králové II 39.0%
- xG · Velké Hamry 1.22 — Hradec Králové II 1.38
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Velké Hamry 3.60 · Draw 3.80 · Hradec Králové II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Velké Hamry 24.8% · Draw 23.5% · Hradec Králové II 51.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Velké Hamry 3.60 · Draw 3.80 · Hradec Králové II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Velké Hamry 24.8% · Draw 23.5% · Hradec Králové II 51.7%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
36/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Velké Hamry 0–0 Hradec Králové II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
"decision": "lean",
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.135,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0105,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1797.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.213,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0415,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.2,
"text": "-4.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"sort_key": 1789.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.69,
"hero_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"market_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.213,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/3",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.69,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.69,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.213,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Velk\u00e9 Hamry 1.22 xG vs Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.38 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 39.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Velk\u00e9 Hamry +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"market_prob": 24.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob": 51.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.09,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.09,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 51.66,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II\u0027s win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.69,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Velk\u00e9 Hamry 1.22 xG vs Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.38 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 39.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~51.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Velk\u00e9 Hamry +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.69,
"hero_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II (pricing gap 12.7 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.69,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.66,
"edge_pp": 6.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"market_prob_pct": 24.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.02,
"edge_pp": 6.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.69,
"edge_pp": -12.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 51.66,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II (51.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II, Market \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/3",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"away_team_id": 14495,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14495.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"away_team_public_id": "40HdnZKlFG22bf",
"away_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562753,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"home_team_id": 7372,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7372.webp",
"home_team_name": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry",
"home_team_public_id": "2o1Npdtey76qRE",
"home_team_slug": "velke-hamry",
"ht.home_team_slug": "velke-hamry",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga - CFL B Republik Czech",
"league_id": 685,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/685.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga - CFL B Republik Czech",
"league_public_id": "48dS4TMcwbMM7I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 08:30:00",
"public_id": "0CIc0Wob5BE6xp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Velke Hamry",
"venue_name": "Stadion Velke Hamry"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4858,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0617,
"ev": -0.213,
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5166,
"draw": 0.2352,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4549
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2729,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.2352,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5166,
"draw": 0.2352,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.27,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.2482,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5166,
"draw": 0.2352,
"home": 0.2482
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2662
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.1884,
"ev": -0.3259,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.0323,
"ev": 0.1226,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": 0.1337,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1502,
"alpha_yes": 0.1652,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.59,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0309,
"edge_yes": -0.0309,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0105,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.076,
"ev_yes": -0.135,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0941,
"implied_no": 0.4251,
"implied_yes": 0.5749,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1502,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.076,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4298
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1652,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0941,
"implied_prob": 0.5749,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5698
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.4298,
"p_final_yes": 0.5698,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2114,
"alpha_under": 0.1921,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0981,
"edge_under": 0.0981,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1115,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0378,
"implied_over": 0.5801,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5794,
"implied_under": 0.4199,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4206,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.5794,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5588
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1921,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0378,
"implied_prob": 0.4206,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4393
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5588,
"p_final_under": 0.4393,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.213,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0617,
"ev": -0.213,
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"ou_2_5": {
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},
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}
},
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"match_regime": {
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"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
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"secondary_picks": [],
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"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"home": "Velk\u00e9 Hamry"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.213,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3258,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562753,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T08:29:07.524913+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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