The model missed the final outcome (Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1).
The model had projected Hradec Králové II at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Hradec Králové II Mladá Boleslav II ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Králové II | 38.0% | 42.1% | -4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Mladá Boleslav II | 32.4% | 32.0% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Hradec Králové II; match finished Mladá Boleslav II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Mladá Boleslav II win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.4%
- xG · Hradec Králové II 1.36 — Mladá Boleslav II 1.24
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.15 · Draw 3.50 · Mladá Boleslav II 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.15 · Draw 3.50 · Mladá Boleslav II 2.83
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 42.1% · Draw 25.9% · Mladá Boleslav II 32.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mladá Boleslav II win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
79/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.15
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Mladá Boleslav II win · Hradec Králové II 0–1 Mladá Boleslav II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1315,
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.11,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.36 xG vs Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II 1.24 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 38.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"market_prob": 32.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.17,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.17,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.12,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.1,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 1.36 xG vs Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II 1.24 \u2192 Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II 38.0%",
"Market: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II ~42.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.11,
"hero_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.1,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.1,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.11,
"edge_pp": -4.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"market_prob_pct": 42.12,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.71,
"edge_pp": 3.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.88,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.39,
"edge_pp": 0.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"market_prob_pct": 32.0,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market and fair estimate are broadly aligned on current pricing.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II (42.1%).",
"Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.51,
"closing_odds": 2.15,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.51,
"entry_odds": 2.15,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"steam_score": 9,
"steam_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mlada-boleslav-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"away_team_id": 12816,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12816.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"away_team_public_id": "1QklPJxKuTLQBR",
"away_team_slug": "mlada-boleslav-ii",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1562775,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"home_team_id": 14495,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14495.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"home_team_public_id": "40HdnZKlFG22bf",
"home_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hradec-kralove-ii",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "3. Liga - CFL B Republik Czech",
"league_id": 685,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/685.webp",
"league_name": "3. Liga - CFL B Republik Czech",
"league_public_id": "48dS4TMcwbMM7I",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 08:15:00",
"public_id": "3gS9geZxhpp4Si",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Hradec Kralove",
"venue_name": "SA Slavia HK"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4475,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0897,
"implied_prob": 0.32,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2588,
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},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
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},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2833,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
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},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0575,
"implied_prob": 0.2588,
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"home": 0.4212
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4224,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.32,
"draw": 0.2588,
"home": 0.4212
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.404
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.0839,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": 0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": -0.0848,
"ev": -0.1823,
"implied_prob": 0.4651,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1606,
"alpha_yes": 0.2208,
"best_no_odd": 2.41,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0717,
"edge_yes": -0.0717,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.099,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0546,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1059,
"implied_no": 0.3843,
"implied_yes": 0.6157,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3956
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6001
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3956,
"p_final_yes": 0.6001,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.209,
"alpha_under": 0.152,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.34,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.103,
"edge_under": 0.103,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1144,
"ev_under": 0.2121,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"implied_over": 0.585,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5858,
"implied_under": 0.415,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4142,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5641
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.43
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5641,
"p_final_under": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2121,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2121,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0173,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"market_prob": 0.384,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1606,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0546,
"implied_prob": 0.384,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3956
},
"p_final": 0.3956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0546,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2208,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0159,
"ev": -0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.616,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6001
}
},
"edge": 0.0717,
"ev": 0.099,
"implied_prob": 0.3843,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"market_prob": 0.4142,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.5858,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5641
},
"p_final": 0.43,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0454,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4142,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.43
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.103,
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1562775,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2121,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mlad\u00e1 Boleslav II",
"home": "Hradec Kr\u00e1lov\u00e9 II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.076907,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2121,
"implied_prob": 0.415,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1315,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.46511627906976744,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1824,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1562775,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T08:14:30.629980+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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