Alumni Los Hornos vs Ezeiza Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

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      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
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        "model_team": "Ezeiza",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "fair_prob": 32.39,
          "label": "Alumni Los Hornos",
          "market_prob": 34.96,
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "outcome": "draw"
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "outcome": "over"
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          "outcome": "under"
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          "outcome": "yes"
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        {
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          "outcome": "no"
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        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Ezeiza",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 35.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
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          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Ezeiza, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Alumni Los Hornos remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 3.05,
        "hero_label": "Ezeiza",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Alumni Los Hornos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Alumni Los Hornos.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Alumni Los Hornos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market activity is currently concentrated on Alumni Los Hornos."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Alumni Los Hornos has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (2/2) supports the current market view on Alumni Los Hornos."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 3.05,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
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        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
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            "fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Alumni Los Hornos",
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            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": -0.5,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.09,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.05,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ezeiza",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.96,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Alumni Los Hornos.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Alumni Los Hornos (35.0%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ezeiza, Market \u2192 Alumni Los Hornos, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
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        "closing_odds": null,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": null,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "market_monitoring",
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        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
        "entry_implied_pct": 38.99,
        "entry_odds": 2.56,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.55,
        "pick_team": "Alumni Los Hornos",
        "steam_score": 34,
        "steam_team_name": "Alumni Los Hornos",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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          "Closing odds analysis",
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 23102,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23102.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ezeiza",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1549940,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": null,
      "home_team_id": 27785,
      "home_team_logo": null,
      "home_team_name": "Alumni Los Hornos",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 1067,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
      "league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4292,
            "best_odd": 2.565,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0132,
            "ev": -0.0695,
            "implied_prob": 0.3496,
            "model_prob": 0.3803,
            "p_final": 0.3628
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 2.98,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0022,
            "ev": -0.1099,
            "implied_prob": 0.3009,
            "model_prob": 0.2959,
            "p_final": 0.2987
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4326,
            "best_odd": 2.565,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0112,
            "ev": -0.1321,
            "implied_prob": 0.3496,
            "model_prob": 0.3237,
            "p_final": 0.3384
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.73,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.96,
          "edge_no": -0.0752,
          "edge_yes": 0.0752,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2111,
          "ev_yes": 0.0662,
          "implied_no": 0.5312,
          "implied_yes": 0.4688,
          "n_bookmakers": 1,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.38,
          "best_under_odd": 1.53,
          "edge_over": 0.0895,
          "edge_under": -0.0895,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1472,
          "ev_under": -0.2075,
          "implied_over": 0.3925,
          "implied_under": 0.6075,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
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        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2959,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.12
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0132,
          "ev": -0.0695,
          "implied_prob": 0.3496,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3803,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ezeiza"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0752,
          "ev": 0.0662,
          "implied_prob": 0.4688,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0895,
          "ev": 0.1472,
          "implied_prob": 0.3925,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1549940,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3803,
        "draw": 0.2959,
        "home": 0.3237
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0662,
        "implied_prob": 0.4688,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.544,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0662,
          "implied_prob": 0.4688,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ezeiza",
        "home": "Alumni Los Hornos"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.043705,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1472,
        "implied_prob": 0.3925,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1549940,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T06:44:10.940629+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}