Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-duanya mengenal pasti {pasukan} sebagai pemenang yang mungkin. Perbezaan semasa kekal dalam had biasa.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Pasaran dan model adalah sejajar secara meluas. Sebarang jurang harga yang kecil mungkin menggambarkan margin penggenapan atau pembuat taruhan, bukan percanggahan struktur.
Aktiviti pasaran sejajar dengan jurang harga terbesar pada Always Ready.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Always Ready | 71.71% | 76.35% | -4.6 pp |
| Seri | 15.47% | 14.89% | +0.6 pp |
| Universitario de Vinto | 12.82% | 8.76% | +4.1 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
Always Ready market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on Always Ready
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "72aa9bec5f6ff33ba5a9e5fe87a89c30478c77cf10cc1bd752a13f6b13f2a50a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"away_win_prob": 0.1282,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.283,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.717,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1547,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 7.8,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 6.47,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.39,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 3.12,
"home_win_prob": 0.7171,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.824,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.176
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Always Ready or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Always Ready"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Always Ready",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0496,
"edge_gap": 0.5636,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7674,
"model_prob": 0.7179,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 12.8,
"draw": 15.4,
"home": 71.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.21
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 1.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.2
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 1.19
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.19
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.18
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 1.15
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.21,
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"display_market": "Always Ready Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.3,
"market_odds": 1.19,
"model_odds": 1.39,
"overround": 9.6,
"prob_edge": -10.7,
"value_pct": -12.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 95.6,
"no_prob": 28.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 71.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 71.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 3.12,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 4,
"label": "4-1",
"prob": 6.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 5.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 5.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Always Ready or Draw",
"prob": 87.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Always Ready or Universitario de Vinto",
"prob": 84.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Universitario de Vinto",
"prob": 28.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Always Ready or Draw",
"pick_prob": 87.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 12.8,
"draw_pct": 15.5,
"home_pct": 71.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Always Ready"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.48,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 82.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 82.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.48,
"under_prob": 17.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"edge": 53.6,
"implied_prob": 8.3,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Universitario de Vinto Win",
"model_prob": 12.8,
"odds": 12.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
},
"home_xg": 3.12,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3632,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.3,
"text": "-36.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1615,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.2,
"text": "+16.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1615,
"no_prob": 28.3,
"sort_key": 10295.35,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 71.7
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.03,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.296,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.6,
"text": "-29.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.03,
"over_prob": 82.4,
"sort_key": 10027.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 17.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1218,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7635,
"max_ev": -0.0128,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.7179,
"side_label": "Always Ready",
"sort_key": 1796.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "3-1",
"top_prob": 7.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.64,
"hero_label": "Always Ready",
"market_prob_pct": 76.3,
"market_team": "Always Ready",
"model_prob_pct": 71.7,
"model_team": "Always Ready",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.64,
"fair_prob": 71.71,
"label": "Always Ready",
"market_prob": 76.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.58,
"fair_prob": 15.47,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 14.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob": 12.82,
"label": "Universitario de Vinto",
"market_prob": 8.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.33,
"fair_prob": 82.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 74.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.33,
"fair_prob": 17.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 25.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.82,
"fair_prob": 71.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.82,
"fair_prob": 28.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 71.71,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Always Ready",
"market_prob_pct": 76.35,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Always Ready"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Always Ready",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 76.3,
"model_prob_pct": 71.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both identify Always Ready as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.64,
"hero_label": "Always Ready",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Always Ready.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Always Ready."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Always Ready (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Always Ready."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 4.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 56.2 pp (at 71.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 56.2,
"max_prob_pct": 71.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 71.71,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Always Ready",
"market_prob_pct": 76.35,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.47,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 14.89,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 12.82,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Universitario de Vinto",
"market_prob_pct": 8.76,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Always Ready.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Always Ready (76.3%).",
"The model and market both identify Always Ready as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 84.03,
"entry_odds": 1.19,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 1.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.2,
"pick_team": "Always Ready",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Always Ready",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 17762,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17762.webp",
"away_team_name": "Universitario de Vinto",
"country_code": "BO",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bo.svg",
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"fixture_id": 1538391,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Bolivia",
"home_team_id": 3700,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3700.webp",
"home_team_name": "Always Ready",
"league_country": "Bolivia",
"league_id": 344,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/344.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-16 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "El Alto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de El Alto"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1879,
"best_odd": 10.375,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.0876,
"model_prob": 0.1279,
"p_final": 0.0952
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 6.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.001,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.1489,
"model_prob": 0.1542,
"p_final": 0.15
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5589,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.7635,
"model_prob": 0.7179,
"p_final": 0.738
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.1382,
"edge_yes": 0.1382,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3632,
"ev_yes": 0.1615,
"implied_no": 0.4212,
"implied_yes": 0.5788,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.25,
"best_under_odd": 4.0,
"edge_over": 0.0833,
"edge_under": -0.0833,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.03,
"ev_under": -0.296,
"implied_over": 0.7407,
"implied_under": 0.2593,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.48,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1615,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.717,
"draw_prob": 0.1542,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7179,
"over_prob": 0.824,
"total_xg": 4.48,
"under_prob": 0.176,
"xg_diff": 1.76
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0255,
"ev": -0.1218,
"implied_prob": 0.7635,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.7179,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Always Ready"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1382,
"ev": 0.1615,
"implied_prob": 0.5788,
"model_prob": 0.717,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0833,
"ev": 0.03,
"implied_prob": 0.7407,
"model_prob": 0.824,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538391,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1615,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1279,
"draw": 0.1542,
"home": 0.7179
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Universitario de Vinto",
"home": "Always Ready"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.115795,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1615,
"implied_prob": 0.5788,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.717,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538391,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:51:16.869529+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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