AI correctly predicted the Albania win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Albania Albania ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 2-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 47.5% | 58.8% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.2% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Belarus | 27.8% | 17.0% | +10.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Albania's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.5%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Albania win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Albania than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Albania higher (58.8% vs model 47.5%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Albania win 2–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:35 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Albania 47.4% · Draw 24.8% · Belarus 27.8%
- xG · Albania 1.87 — Belarus 1.92
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Albania 1.63 · Draw 3.95 · Belarus 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · Albania 58.8% · Draw 24.2% · Belarus 17.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Albania 1.63 · Draw 3.95 · Belarus 5.64
- Implied 1X2 · Albania 58.8% · Draw 24.2% · Belarus 17.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Albania win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
43/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Albania win · Albania 2–0 Belarus
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
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"winner_name": "Albania"
},
"away_xg": 1.92,
"betting_insight": {
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
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},
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"home_played": 0,
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"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
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"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.2
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"correct_score": {
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"prob": 7.3
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{
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"prob": 5.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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"label": "Albania or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 75.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Belarus",
"prob": 52.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Albania or Belarus",
"pick_prob": 75.3
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Albania"
},
"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Belarus Win",
"model_prob": 27.8,
"odds": 5.64
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"has_data": true,
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"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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"most_likely": {
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-2",
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"label": "2-2",
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{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.87,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 28.3,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0202,
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"alpha": 0.1501,
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"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.606,
"ev_over_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5176,
"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "-51.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"alpha": 0.1303,
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"edge": 0.0366,
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"no": {
"alpha": 0.1433,
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"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1406,
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},
"p_final": 0.4878,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5364,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -53.6,
"text": "-53.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.647,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 64.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.647,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10582.3,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1341,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0601,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Albania",
"sort_key": 5248.08,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"alert_team": "Belarus",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.31,
"hero_label": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 58.8,
"market_team": "Albania",
"model_prob_pct": 47.5,
"model_team": "Albania",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.647,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 47.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (47.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1341,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.31,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.92,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 42.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.87,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.92,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.87 \u00b7 Away xG 1.92 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +42%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"steam_team": "Belarus",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.647,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 47.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (47.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1341,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Albania 1.87 xG vs Belarus 1.92 \u2192 Albania 47.5%",
"Market: Albania ~58.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Belarus \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Albania, but sharp money moved toward Belarus.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.31,
"fair_prob": 47.46,
"label": "Albania",
"market_prob": 58.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.52,
"fair_prob": 24.77,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.79,
"fair_prob": 27.77,
"label": "Belarus",
"market_prob": 16.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.2,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.8,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.1,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.2,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.63,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.57,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.63,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.43,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 58.77,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Belarus"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Albania\u0027s win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 47.5%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Albania",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 58.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.3,
"model_prob_pct": 47.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Albania 1.87 xG vs Belarus 1.92 \u2192 Albania 47.5%",
"Market: Albania ~58.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Belarus \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Albania, but sharp money moved toward Belarus.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.31,
"hero_label": "Albania",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Belarus odds shortened \u2193 -15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Belarus, with odds shortening by 15.4%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Albania than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Belarus \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Albania than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Belarus, with odds shortening by 15.4%.",
"Buying interest on Belarus \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Albania more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Belarus has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 15.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Belarus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 19.7 pp (at 47.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 19.7,
"max_prob_pct": 47.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Albania",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Albania higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.31,
"edge_pp": -11.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Albania",
"market_prob_pct": 58.77,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.52,
"edge_pp": 0.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.25,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.79,
"edge_pp": 10.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Belarus",
"market_prob_pct": 16.98,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Belarus \u2014 odds shortened by 15.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Albania (58.8%).",
"However, Belarus has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.4%, 9/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Albania, Market \u2192 Albania, Recent sharp money \u2192 Belarus.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.35,
"closing_odds": 1.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.35,
"entry_odds": 1.63,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -35.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -20.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -20.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books synchronized on Belarus (15.4% steam, score 88) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.50",
"6.00",
"5.50"
],
"display": "8.50 \u2192 5.00 \u2192 5.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 59m",
"pick_team": "Belarus",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
5.64,
5.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Belarus \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Belarus",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Belarus \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward Belarus while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Belarus",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Belarus",
"steam_score": 88,
"steam_team_name": "Belarus",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belarus",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Belarus",
"away_team_id": 1100,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1100.webp",
"away_team_name": "Belarus",
"away_team_public_id": "17PqsfkJ7wCQs3",
"away_team_slug": "belarus",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528893,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Albania",
"home_team_display_name": "Albania",
"home_team_id": 778,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/778.webp",
"home_team_name": "Albania",
"home_team_public_id": "2TnUwDORs7wZ7y",
"home_team_slug": "albania",
"ht.home_team_slug": "albania",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0ZxLzNlE6dxN0i",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Tirana",
"venue_name": "Arena Komb\u00ebtare"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1676,
"best_odd": 5.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": 0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.1698,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1698,
"draw": 0.2425,
"home": 0.5877
},
"model_prob": 0.278,
"p_final": 0.188
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2977,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0016,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1698,
"draw": 0.2425,
"home": 0.5877
},
"model_prob": 0.2477,
"p_final": 0.2441
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.498,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0565,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1698,
"draw": 0.2425,
"home": 0.5877
},
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"p_final": 0.5312
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.64,
"edge": 0.1007,
"ev": 0.5679,
"implied_prob": 0.1773,
"model_prob": 0.278
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": -0.0055,
"ev": -0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.2477
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.1392,
"ev": -0.2269,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.4743
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1433,
"alpha_yes": 0.1303,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.25,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2863,
"edge_yes": 0.2863,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5364,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1406,
"ev_yes": 0.647,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.0025,
"implied_no": 0.5543,
"implied_yes": 0.4457,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1433,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.5487,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.5085
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1303,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0366,
"ev": 0.0025,
"implied_prob": 0.4513,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.4878
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5085,
"p_final_yes": 0.4878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1361,
"alpha_under": 0.1501,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.78,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.282,
"edge_under": -0.281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.606,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0202,
"ev_under": -0.5176,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1324,
"implied_over": 0.448,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4474,
"implied_under": 0.552,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5526,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": 0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4858
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5104
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4858,
"p_final_under": 0.5104,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.647,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.647,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.647,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.647,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Albania at 47.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 58.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Albania as the value side (47.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Albania",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Belarus, but the model still strongly favours Albania.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1341,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 42.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.05 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.05
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2477,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4743,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.05
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.1698,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.278,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Belarus",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0565,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Albania"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1303,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0366,
"market_prob": 0.4513,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1433,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.5487,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.5085
},
"p_final": 0.4878,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0025,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1303,
"best_odd": 2.055,
"edge": 0.0366,
"ev": 0.0025,
"implied_prob": 0.4513,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.4878
}
},
"edge": 0.2863,
"ev": 0.647,
"implied_prob": 0.4457,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"market_prob": 0.4474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1361,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0385,
"ev": 0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.4474,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4858
},
"p_final": 0.4858,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0202,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0423,
"ev": -0.1324,
"implied_prob": 0.5526,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5104
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.282,
"ev": 0.606,
"implied_prob": 0.448,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528893,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.647,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.278,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.4743
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.647,
"implied_prob": 0.4457,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.647,
"implied_prob": 0.4457,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Belarus",
"home": "Albania"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.552975,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.606,
"implied_prob": 0.448,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1341,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.63,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5877,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4743,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6134969325153374,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2269,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528893,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T19:35:56.776497+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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