The model missed the final outcome (Hungary win 1–0).
The model had projected Georgia at 38.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Georgia Hungary ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hungary win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hungary 1.67 — Georgia 2.12
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hungary win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hungary win · Hungary 1–0 Georgia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2621,
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"away_win_prob": 0.3832,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.725,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.61,
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"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 2.12,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Georgia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1068,
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"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2765,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.5,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.62,
"market_odds": 3.5,
"model_odds": 2.61,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 9.7,
"value_pct": 34.1,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 88.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 81.2,
"no_prob": 27.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 72.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 72.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.12,
"home_expected": 1.67,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hungary or Draw",
"prob": 61.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hungary or Georgia",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Georgia",
"prob": 64.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Hungary or Georgia",
"pick_prob": 73.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.3,
"draw_pct": 26.2,
"home_pct": 35.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Georgia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 34.1,
"implied_prob": 28.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Georgia Win",
"model_prob": 38.3,
"odds": 3.5
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Georgia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.65,
"draw": 29.33,
"home": 43.02
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:45:03",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 18:14:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Hungary",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.02,
"gap_pp": -7.54,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.33,
"gap_pp": -3.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.65,
"gap_pp": 10.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.11,
"gap_pp": 29.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.89,
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.5,
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},
{
"closing": 2.23,
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},
{
"closing": 1.69,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"label": "1-2",
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.67,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0312,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"market_prob": 0.4315,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1044,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4627
},
"p_final": 0.4627,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 29.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.606,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0179,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0428,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5257
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6425,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 64.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5339,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -53.4,
"text": "-53.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.6425,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10728.25,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1482,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0337,
"edge_pp": 3.4,
"market_prob": 0.4973,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1482,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.469
},
"p_final": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3485,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0123,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": -0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4775,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -47.8,
"text": "-47.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3775,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 37.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3775,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.5,
"sort_key": 10339.75,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 72.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.062,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Georgia",
"sort_key": 10055.8,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 805.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 8.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"alert_team": "Hungary",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.67,
"hero_label": "Georgia",
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"market_team": "Hungary",
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_team": "Georgia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Georgia at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Georgia as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Georgia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 10.67,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.12,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.67,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.12,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.67 \u00b7 Away xG 2.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +57%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"steam_team": "Hungary",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Georgia at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Georgia as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Georgia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hungary 1.67 xG vs Georgia 2.12 \u2192 Georgia 38.3%",
"Market: Hungary ~27.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hungary odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Georgia projects stronger on expected goals (+0.45 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob": 35.47,
"label": "Hungary",
"market_prob": 43.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.12,
"fair_prob": 26.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.67,
"fair_prob": 38.32,
"label": "Georgia",
"market_prob": 27.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 29.72,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -29.62,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 22.69,
"fair_prob": 72.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -22.69,
"fair_prob": 27.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 10.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.32,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Georgia",
"market_prob_pct": 27.65,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Hungary"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Georgia\u0027s win probability at 38.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.6%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Georgia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 27.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 10.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Georgia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 46,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hungary 1.67 xG vs Georgia 2.12 \u2192 Georgia 38.3%",
"Market: Hungary ~27.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Hungary odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Georgia projects stronger on expected goals (+0.45 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 10.67,
"hero_label": "Georgia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Hungary odds lengthened \u2191 +15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Hungary has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Georgia.",
"note": "Drift away from Hungary \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Georgia.",
"However, Hungary has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Hungary \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Georgia more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Hungary has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Hungary."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 10.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 38.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Georgia",
"largest_gap_pp": 10.7,
"lead": "The model rates Georgia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 10.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.55,
"edge_pp": -7.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.47,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hungary",
"market_prob_pct": 43.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.12,
"edge_pp": -3.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.67,
"edge_pp": 10.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.32,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Georgia",
"market_prob_pct": 27.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Hungary \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hungary (27.6%).",
"However, Hungary has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.4%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Georgia, Market \u2192 Hungary, while Hungary odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.57,
"closing_odds": 3.5,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.57,
"entry_odds": 3.5,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Hungary together (15.4% drift, score 68) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.10",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.31 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 68h 15m",
"pick_team": "Hungary",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.95,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.95,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Hungary odds \u2191 +15.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Hungary",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Hungary odds \u2191 +15.4% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Hungary",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Hungary",
"steam_score": 68,
"steam_team_name": "Hungary",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "georgia",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Georgia",
"away_team_id": 1104,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1104.webp",
"away_team_name": "Georgia",
"away_team_public_id": "3lEkPuoxeEejLP",
"away_team_slug": "georgia",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528926,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Hungary",
"home_team_display_name": "Hungary",
"home_team_id": 769,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/769.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hungary",
"home_team_public_id": "5nqvo3ttKZCvyU",
"home_team_slug": "hungary",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hungary",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0tYjpcemFktnTZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Budapest",
"venue_name": "Pusk\u00e1s Ar\u00e9na"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2519,
"best_odd": 3.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2765,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"p_final": 0.3034
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2859,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.2933,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2765,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.2619,
"p_final": 0.2843
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3991,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.4302,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2765,
"draw": 0.2933,
"home": 0.4302
},
"model_prob": 0.3548,
"p_final": 0.4001
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.5,
"edge": 0.0976,
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.2857,
"model_prob": 0.3833
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0411,
"ev": -0.1357,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2619
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0897,
"ev": -0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3548
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1482,
"alpha_yes": 0.1482,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2269,
"edge_yes": 0.2269,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4775,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1371,
"ev_yes": 0.3775,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0123,
"implied_no": 0.5019,
"implied_yes": 0.4981,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1482,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1371,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.275,
"p_final": 0.469
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1482,
"best_odd": 1.86,
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": -0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.725,
"p_final": 0.531
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.469,
"p_final_yes": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1044,
"alpha_under": 0.1439,
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.72,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.2972,
"edge_under": -0.2962,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6425,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0179,
"ev_under": -0.5339,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1221,
"implied_over": 0.4328,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4315,
"implied_under": 0.5672,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5685,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1044,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.4315,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4627
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1439,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0428,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.5685,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.5257
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4627,
"p_final_under": 0.5257,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6425,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6425,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 10.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6425,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6425,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Georgia at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 27.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Georgia as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 10.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Georgia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +64.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +64.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +64.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+64.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Georgia).",
"Decision strength: 7.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.45"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.45
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.725,
"draw_prob": 0.2619,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3833,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.45
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0269,
"ev": 0.062,
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Georgia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.531,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0123,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0312,
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"over": {
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},
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"under": {
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},
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528926,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6425,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2619,
"home": 0.3548
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.3775,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Georgia",
"home": "Hungary"
},
"top_pick": {
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.062,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.5,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2765,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3833,
"raw_edge_display": "+10.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2857142857142857,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3415,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+34.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528926,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T19:20:43.591978+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Negara-Negara UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Itali | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | France | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Itali | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Türkiye | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
