AI correctly predicted the Montenegro win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Montenegro Montenegro ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 45.7% | 53.6% | -7.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.1% | -0.9 pp | Aligned |
| Cyprus | 29.1% | 20.3% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cyprus's win probability at 29.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.3%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Montenegro win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cyprus.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Montenegro more conservatively (36.9% vs model 45.7%, 8.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Montenegro win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Montenegro 45.7% · Draw 25.2% · Cyprus 29.1%
- xG · Montenegro 1.91 — Cyprus 1.88
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Montenegro 1.79 · Draw 3.68 · Cyprus 4.74
- Implied 1X2 · Montenegro 53.6% · Draw 26.1% · Cyprus 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Montenegro 1.79 · Draw 3.68 · Cyprus 4.74
- Implied 1X2 · Montenegro 53.6% · Draw 26.1% · Cyprus 20.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Montenegro win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
55/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Montenegro win · Montenegro 2–1 Cyprus
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1149,
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},
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},
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"side_label": "Montenegro",
"sort_key": 5226.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"alert_team": "Montenegro",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.8,
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"hero_edge_pp": 8.82,
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"model_team": "Montenegro",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
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"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.533,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montenegro at 45.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montenegro as the value side (45.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montenegro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.182,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.82,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.88,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.91,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.91,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.91 \u00b7 Away xG 1.88 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"steam_team": "Montenegro",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.533,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montenegro at 45.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montenegro as the value side (45.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montenegro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.182,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montenegro 1.91 xG vs Cyprus 1.88 \u2192 Montenegro 45.7%",
"Market: Montenegro ~53.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Montenegro odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montenegro, but the market has moved away from Montenegro.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.94,
"fair_prob": 45.71,
"label": "Montenegro",
"market_prob": 53.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.88,
"fair_prob": 25.21,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.82,
"fair_prob": 29.08,
"label": "Cyprus",
"market_prob": 20.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.88,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.78,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.12,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.08,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.12,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.92,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.08,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cyprus",
"market_prob_pct": 20.26,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Montenegro"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cyprus\u0027s win probability at 29.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.3%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Montenegro",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 45.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montenegro 1.91 xG vs Cyprus 1.88 \u2192 Montenegro 45.7%",
"Market: Montenegro ~53.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Montenegro odds \u2191 +5.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montenegro, but the market has moved away from Montenegro.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.82,
"hero_label": "Cyprus",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Montenegro odds lengthened \u2191 +5.9%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Montenegro has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cyprus.",
"note": "Drift away from Montenegro \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cyprus.",
"However, Montenegro has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Montenegro \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Cyprus.",
"At the same time, Montenegro has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Montenegro."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.6 pp (at 45.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.6,
"max_prob_pct": 45.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Cyprus",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.8,
"lead": "The model rates Cyprus considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.94,
"edge_pp": -7.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Montenegro",
"market_prob_pct": 53.65,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.88,
"edge_pp": -0.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.21,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.09,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.82,
"edge_pp": 8.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.08,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cyprus",
"market_prob_pct": 20.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Montenegro \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Montenegro (53.6%).",
"However, Montenegro has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.9%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Montenegro, Market \u2192 Montenegro, while Montenegro odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.1,
"closing_odds": 4.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.1,
"entry_odds": 4.74,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 21m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Montenegro (5.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.80",
"1.75",
"1.70"
],
"display": "1.85 \u2192 1.52 \u2192 1.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 21m",
"pick_team": "Montenegro",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.52"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.7,
1.79,
1.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Montenegro",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Montenegro",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"summary": "Market moved away from Montenegro while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Montenegro",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"open_odds": 1.7,
"pick_team": "Montenegro",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Montenegro",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cyprus",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Cyprus",
"away_team_id": 1106,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1106.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cyprus",
"away_team_public_id": "0wg3XPSJnsCxyw",
"away_team_slug": "cyprus",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528887,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Montenegro",
"home_team_display_name": "Montenegro",
"home_team_id": 1109,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1109.webp",
"home_team_name": "Montenegro",
"home_team_public_id": "3BR5woYASVz2Bt",
"home_team_slug": "montenegro",
"ht.home_team_slug": "montenegro",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "24HS9E35F17CID",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Podgorica",
"venue_name": "Stadion pod Goricom"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1735,
"best_odd": 4.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": 0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.2909,
"p_final": 0.2179
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.296,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0494,
"implied_prob": 0.2609,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.2521,
"p_final": 0.2583
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5285,
"best_odd": 1.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2026,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.5365
},
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4945
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.74,
"edge": 0.08,
"ev": 0.379,
"implied_prob": 0.211,
"model_prob": 0.2909
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.0723,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2521
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.1017,
"ev": -0.182,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.457
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1426,
"alpha_yes": 0.1426,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2412,
"edge_yes": 0.2412,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4908,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1407,
"ev_yes": 0.4054,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0122,
"implied_no": 0.5092,
"implied_yes": 0.4908,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0348,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4774
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0348,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5226
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4774,
"p_final_yes": 0.5226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1408,
"alpha_under": 0.1552,
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.75,
"edge_over": 0.2688,
"edge_under": -0.2678,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.533,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0218,
"ev_under": -0.5122,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1288,
"implied_over": 0.4612,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4605,
"implied_under": 0.5388,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5395,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4605,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4985
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0417,
"ev": -0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.5395,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4978
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4985,
"p_final_under": 0.4978,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.533,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.533,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.533,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.533,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montenegro at 45.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montenegro as the value side (45.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montenegro",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +53.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +53.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +53.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+53.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Montenegro, but the model still strongly favours Montenegro.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.182,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.03 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.03
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2521,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.457,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.2026,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.2909,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Cyprus",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Montenegro"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0348,
"market_prob": 0.4878,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.0348,
"ev": -0.1407,
"implied_prob": 0.5122,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.4774
},
"p_final": 0.5226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0122,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1426,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": 0.0348,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.5226
}
},
"edge": 0.2412,
"ev": 0.4054,
"implied_prob": 0.4908,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0379,
"market_prob": 0.4605,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1408,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4605,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.4985
},
"p_final": 0.4985,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0218,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0417,
"ev": -0.1288,
"implied_prob": 0.5395,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4978
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2688,
"ev": 0.533,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528887,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.533,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2909,
"draw": 0.2521,
"home": 0.457
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4054,
"implied_prob": 0.4908,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4054,
"implied_prob": 0.4908,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cyprus",
"home": "Montenegro"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.486362,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.533,
"implied_prob": 0.4612,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.79,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5365,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5586592178770949,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.182,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-18.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528887,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T19:17:04.274338+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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