AI correctly predicted the Austria win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Austria Austria ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 53.6% | 65.2% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 22.4% | 19.9% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Israel | 24.0% | 15.0% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Austria's win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.6%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Austria win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Austria than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Austria higher (65.2% vs model 53.6%, 11.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Austria win 3–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Austria 53.5% · Draw 22.4% · Israel 24.1%
- xG · Austria 2.00 — Israel 1.79
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Austria 1.48 · Draw 4.86 · Israel 6.45
- Implied 1X2 · Austria 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Israel 15.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Austria 1.48 · Draw 4.86 · Israel 6.45
- Implied 1X2 · Austria 65.2% · Draw 19.9% · Israel 15.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Austria win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
41/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Austria win · Austria 3–1 Israel
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1207,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.1,
"text": "-12.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0661,
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"raw_pct": 6.6,
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},
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
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"side_label": "Austria",
"sort_key": 5252.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.63,
"hero_label": "Austria",
"market_prob_pct": 65.2,
"market_team": "Austria",
"model_prob_pct": 53.6,
"model_team": "Austria",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Austria \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528878 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1207,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6756756756756757,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.63,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.63,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.79,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 2.0,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.0,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 2.00 \u00b7 Away xG 1.79 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +48%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Austria \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528878 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1207,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6756756756756757,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2081,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 48.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.21
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austria 2.00 xG vs Israel 1.79 \u2192 Austria 53.6%",
"Market: Austria ~65.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Austria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.63,
"fair_prob": 53.56,
"label": "Austria",
"market_prob": 65.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.57,
"fair_prob": 22.42,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob": 24.02,
"label": "Israel",
"market_prob": 14.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.22,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.12,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.04,
"fair_prob": 73.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.04,
"fair_prob": 26.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.56,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Austria",
"market_prob_pct": 65.19,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Austria\u0027s win probability at 65.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 53.6%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.63,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Austria",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 65.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -11.6,
"model_prob_pct": 53.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-11.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -11.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Austria \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austria 2.00 xG vs Israel 1.79 \u2192 Austria 53.6%",
"Market: Austria ~65.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Austria with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.63,
"hero_label": "Austria",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Austria than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Austria than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Austria more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.63,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.5 pp (at 53.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 29.5,
"max_prob_pct": 53.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Austria",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Austria higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.63,
"edge_pp": -11.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.56,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Austria",
"market_prob_pct": 65.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.57,
"edge_pp": 2.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.06,
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Israel",
"market_prob_pct": 14.96,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Austria (65.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.6%, 3/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Austria \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 67.57,
"closing_odds": 1.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 67.57,
"entry_odds": 1.48,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 5.09 \u2192 4.26 \u2192 4.75) \u2014 net 5.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.86",
"4.68",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.09 \u2192 4.26 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 152h 54m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.09"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.26"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
4.86,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.86"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "israel",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Israel",
"away_team_id": 1116,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1116.webp",
"away_team_name": "Israel",
"away_team_public_id": "3ul7OkM8uoYXLZ",
"away_team_slug": "israel",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528878,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_display_name": "Austria",
"home_team_id": 775,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/775.webp",
"home_team_name": "Austria",
"home_team_public_id": "0hUb4ph78Aq02e",
"home_team_slug": "austria",
"ht.home_team_slug": "austria",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Negara-Negara UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5rOjk6udxHF3NL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1727,
"best_odd": 6.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": 0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.1496,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1496,
"draw": 0.1985,
"home": 0.6519
},
"model_prob": 0.2405,
"p_final": 0.1653
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 4.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.1985,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1496,
"draw": 0.1985,
"home": 0.6519
},
"model_prob": 0.2244,
"p_final": 0.2035
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4949,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0578,
"ev": -0.1207,
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1496,
"draw": 0.1985,
"home": 0.6519
},
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"p_final": 0.5941
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.45,
"edge": 0.0855,
"ev": 0.5515,
"implied_prob": 0.155,
"model_prob": 0.2405
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.86,
"edge": 0.0186,
"ev": 0.0904,
"implied_prob": 0.2058,
"model_prob": 0.2244
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.1406,
"ev": -0.208,
"implied_prob": 0.6757,
"model_prob": 0.5351
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1642,
"alpha_yes": 0.1806,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1804,
"edge_yes": 0.1804,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4217,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"ev_yes": 0.2646,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.02,
"implied_no": 0.4494,
"implied_yes": 0.5506,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1642,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.4492,
"model_prob": 0.269,
"p_final": 0.4196
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1806,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": 0.0325,
"ev": -0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.5508,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"p_final": 0.5833
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4196,
"p_final_yes": 0.5833,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2114,
"alpha_under": 0.154,
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": 0.1222,
"edge_under": -0.1212,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.168,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0331,
"ev_under": -0.3252,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.118,
"implied_over": 0.6078,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6057,
"implied_under": 0.3922,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3943,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": 0.0263,
"ev": -0.0331,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.632
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.154,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.3753
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.632,
"p_final_under": 0.3753,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2646,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5515,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 47,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Austria at 53.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 65.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Austria as the value side (53.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Austria",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Austria \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.12 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528878 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.12 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +26.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+26.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Austria).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1207,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -11.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6756756756756757,
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}
},
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"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
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],
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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},
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},
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"longshot_high_variance"
],
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],
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"teams": {
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
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},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1207,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.48,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6519,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5351,
"raw_edge_display": "-11.7 percentage points",
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}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528878,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T19:10:21.568943+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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