The model missed the final outcome (Linero win 1–2).
The model had projected IFK Trelleborg at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 IFK Trelleborg Linero ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Trelleborg | 40.4% | 59.7% | -19.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.5% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Linero | 30.1% | 18.8% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates IFK Trelleborg's win probability at 59.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Linero win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about IFK Trelleborg than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IFK Trelleborg by 19.3 percentage points (59.7% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · IFK Trelleborg 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Linero 30.1%
- xG · IFK Trelleborg 1.41 — Linero 1.19
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · IFK Trelleborg 1.45 · Draw 4.02 · Linero 4.61
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Trelleborg 59.7% · Draw 21.5% · Linero 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · IFK Trelleborg 1.45 · Draw 4.02 · Linero 4.61
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Trelleborg 59.7% · Draw 21.5% · Linero 18.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Linero win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Södra Götaland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 42 |
| 3 | IFK Trelleborg | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 41 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Linero | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 6 | Växjö Norra | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Nosaby | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Österlen | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Sölvesborg | 21 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 11 | Staffanstorp United | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 12 | Torns | 22 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 13 | Räppe | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 22 | 57 | 19 | +38 | 54 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 22 | 55 | 26 | +29 | 42 |
| 3 | Berga | 22 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 37 |
| 4 | IFK Trelleborg | 21 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 41 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 21 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 32 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Österlen | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Staffanstorp United | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Sölvesborg | 21 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Växjö Norra | 21 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 33 |
| 11 | Torns | 22 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 21 |
| 12 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 27 |
| 13 | Räppe | 22 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 17 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 22 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 11 |
