Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
Not available
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Sölvesborg Sölvesborg ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sölvesborg win · 3–2
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
No prediction record
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sölvesborg win · Sölvesborg 3–2 Berga
Prediction
No prediction record
Decision Grade
Not assessed
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 9.9,
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"label": "Disagree",
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"summary": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg."
},
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
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"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
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"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00f6lvesborg at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00f6lvesborg as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"market_quality"
],
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"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0763,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.92,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.92,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.14,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.46,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.46 \u00b7 Away xG 1.14 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00f6lvesborg at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00f6lvesborg as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0763,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: S\u00f6lvesborg 1.46 xG vs Berga 1.14 \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg 42.9%",
"Market: Berga ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: S\u00f6lvesborg +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean S\u00f6lvesborg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.42,
"fair_prob": 42.86,
"label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob": 35.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.49,
"fair_prob": 29.2,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob": 27.93,
"label": "Berga",
"market_prob": 37.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.99,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.99,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.79,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.59,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.79,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.41,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Berga",
"market_prob_pct": 37.85,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Berga\u0027s win probability at 37.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.92,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.5,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: S\u00f6lvesborg 1.46 xG vs Berga 1.14 \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg 42.9%",
"Market: Berga ~35.4% implied",
"Market Steam: S\u00f6lvesborg +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean S\u00f6lvesborg with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.92,
"hero_label": "Berga",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Berga. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Berga relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Berga. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Berga above the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.92,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.7 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.7,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Berga",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Berga higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.42,
"edge_pp": 7.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.86,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob_pct": 35.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.49,
"edge_pp": 2.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.92,
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.93,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Berga",
"market_prob_pct": 37.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Berga relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Berga (35.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg, Market \u2192 Berga, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.55,
"closing_odds": 2.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.55,
"entry_odds": 2.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "berga",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Berga",
"away_team_id": 12612,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12612.webp",
"away_team_name": "Berga",
"away_team_public_id": "2sjeAfEbZWXdwt",
"away_team_slug": "berga",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1511024,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"home_team_id": 12660,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12660.webp",
"home_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"home_team_public_id": "1bZPwa54iLd7AW",
"home_team_slug": "solvesborg",
"ht.home_team_slug": "solvesborg",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
"league_id": 597,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
"league_public_id": "3qEe6mZxLIgp95",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 11:00:00",
"public_id": "38gYkwGdby44wy",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3829,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0381,
"ev": -0.2,
"implied_prob": 0.3785,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3785,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.3544
},
"model_prob": 0.2791,
"p_final": 0.3404
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2887,
"best_odd": 3.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0865,
"implied_prob": 0.2671,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3785,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.3544
},
"model_prob": 0.2921,
"p_final": 0.2743
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3998,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3785,
"draw": 0.2671,
"home": 0.3544
},
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"p_final": 0.3841
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.1465,
"ev": -0.3442,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.2791
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.33,
"edge": -0.0082,
"ev": -0.0272,
"implied_prob": 0.3003,
"model_prob": 0.2921
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": 0.0763,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.4288
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1494,
"alpha_yes": 0.2054,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1079,
"edge_yes": -0.1079,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2474,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0439,
"ev_yes": -0.193,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1208,
"implied_no": 0.3541,
"implied_yes": 0.6459,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1494,
"best_odd": 2.615,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.3487,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3656
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.6513,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.628
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3656,
"p_final_yes": 0.628,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1953,
"alpha_under": 0.142,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.41,
"edge_over": -0.1399,
"edge_under": 0.1399,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1309,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0426,
"implied_over": 0.6219,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6227,
"implied_under": 0.3781,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3773,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3972
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5953,
"p_final_under": 0.3972,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates S\u00f6lvesborg at 42.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies S\u00f6lvesborg as the value side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced S\u00f6lvesborg, but the model still strongly favours S\u00f6lvesborg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0763,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.32
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.2921,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4288,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.32
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0358,
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1494,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.615,
"edge": 0.0169,
"market_prob": 0.3487,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1494,
"best_odd": 2.615,
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.3487,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.3656
},
"p_final": 0.3656,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0439,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2054,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0233,
"ev": -0.1208,
"implied_prob": 0.6513,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.628
}
},
"edge": 0.1079,
"ev": 0.2474,
"implied_prob": 0.3541,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.02,
"market_prob": 0.3773,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1953,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0275,
"ev": -0.1309,
"implied_prob": 0.6227,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5953
},
"p_final": 0.3972,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0426,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.142,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.02,
"ev": -0.0426,
"implied_prob": 0.3773,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3972
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1399,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1511024,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2791,
"draw": 0.2921,
"home": 0.4288
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2474,
"implied_prob": 0.3541,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2474,
"implied_prob": 0.3541,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.462,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Berga",
"home": "S\u00f6lvesborg"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3781,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3544,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4288,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0763,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1511024,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T11:00:19.888439+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Södra Götaland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 26 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 63 |
| 2 | IFK Trelleborg | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 53 |
| 3 | Oskarshamns AIK | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 45 |
| 4 | Nosaby | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 |
| 5 | Linero | 26 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Berga | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 43 |
| 7 | Växjö Norra | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 38 |
| 8 | Österlen | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 9 | Staffanstorp United | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 10 | Lilla Torg | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 32 |
| 11 | Sölvesborg | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 12 | Torns | 26 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 13 | Räppe | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 26 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 26 | 68 | 23 | +45 | 63 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 26 | 62 | 37 | +25 | 45 |
| 3 | Berga | 26 | 55 | 39 | +16 | 43 |
| 4 | IFK Trelleborg | 26 | 54 | 27 | +27 | 53 |
| 5 | Linero | 26 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 44 |
| 6 | Nosaby | 26 | 48 | 40 | +8 | 45 |
| 7 | Österlen | 26 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 33 |
| 8 | Staffanstorp United | 26 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | Sölvesborg | 26 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 32 |
| 10 | Lilla Torg | 26 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 32 |
| 11 | Växjö Norra | 26 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 38 |
| 12 | Torns | 26 | 31 | 77 | -46 | 21 |
| 13 | Karlshamn | 26 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 14 |
| 14 | Räppe | 26 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
