The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Sölvesborg at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Sölvesborg Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sölvesborg | 40.4% | 49.9% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.9% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Räppe | 30.1% | 25.2% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Sölvesborg's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sölvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sölvesborg by 9.5 percentage points (49.9% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sölvesborg 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Räppe 30.1%
- xG · Sölvesborg 1.41 — Räppe 1.19
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 1.78 · Draw 3.57 · Räppe 3.52
- Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 49.9% · Draw 24.9% · Räppe 25.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
52/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Sölvesborg 1–1 Räppe
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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{
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{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
"alert_team": "R\u00e4ppe",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
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"market_prob_pct": 49.9,
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"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 44,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
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"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.88,
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"outcome": "draw"
},
{
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"label": "R\u00e4ppe",
"market_prob": 25.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.89,
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"market_prob": 61.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.89,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.24,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.24,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.89,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "R\u00e4ppe"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 49.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean S\u00f6lvesborg, but the market prices them higher (49.9% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.47,
"hero_label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "R\u00e4ppe odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, R\u00e4ppe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on S\u00f6lvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on S\u00f6lvesborg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, R\u00e4ppe has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices S\u00f6lvesborg above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, R\u00e4ppe has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 9.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -9.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "S\u00f6lvesborg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.89,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.88,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "R\u00e4ppe",
"market_prob_pct": 25.23,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from R\u00e4ppe \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers S\u00f6lvesborg (49.9%).",
"R\u00e4ppe has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +10.8%, 4/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg, Market \u2192 S\u00f6lvesborg, Recent sharp money \u2192 R\u00e4ppe.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Södra Götaland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | IFK Trelleborg | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Oskarshamns AIK | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 42 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Linero | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 6 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 7 | Nosaby | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Österlen | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Staffanstorp United | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 12 | Torns | 22 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 22 | 57 | 19 | +38 | 54 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 22 | 55 | 26 | +29 | 42 |
| 3 | Berga | 22 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 37 |
| 4 | IFK Trelleborg | 22 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 22 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 33 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Österlen | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Staffanstorp United | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
| 10 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Torns | 22 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 21 |
| 12 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 27 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 22 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 11 |
