Österlen vs Nosaby Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:00
1.29
1.31
35% 30% 36%

Penilaian Ramalan

Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai

Kegemaran
Nosaby Perlawanan seimbang
Kebarangkalian model
35.6%
Kebarangkalian pasaran
32.7%
Perjanjian pasaran
Sederhana
Pengesahan
lulus

Ringkasan:

Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan Österlen kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.

Perisikan Pergerakan Pasaran

Pergerakan semasa
Österlen ↑ +2.3% 2.15 → 2.2
Jenis bergerak
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil
Skor Stim
4C
Limited conviction
Keluasan pasaran
2/12
fasa
Tidak stabil
Buku rujuk
Bet365
Pengesahan CLV
Waiting for Close

Laluan Odds — Österlen

— Garis stabil

Buka 2.35
Rendah / Tinggi 2.09
semasa 2.20

Naratif Pasaran

Harga dua hala tidak stabil pada Österlen (ayunan 2.35 → 2.09 → 2.20) — bersih 2.3% tetapi turun naik intrahari tinggi.

Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.

Audit Pasaran

Perjanjian pasaran
Sederhana
Pengesahan
lulus
Jurang terbesar
Österlen -6.2 pp
Keluasan
2/12
Aktiviti pasaran semasa
Österlen odds dipanjangkan ↑ +2.3%.

Anggaran saksama dan harga pasaran berbeza secara sederhana. Pantau sebelum sepak mula.

Penilaian Pasaran

Pasaran dan model secara umum bersetuju dengan Österlen. Perbezaan yang selebihnya mungkin mencerminkan perbezaan dalam andaian kekuatan pasukan dan bukannya perselisihan arah.

Pengesahan kekal terhad (2/12 buku), mencadangkan minat awal dan bukannya pergerakan pasaran yang luas.

  • Pantau pergerakan barisan sebelum sepak mula — bukan cadangan pertaruhan.
Hasil Adil Pasaran Tepi
Österlen 34.7% 40.93% -6.2 pp
Seri 29.65% 26.33% +3.3 pp
Nosaby 35.64% 32.74% +2.9 pp

Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.

Keputusan pertaruhan akhir

Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.

  • Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Nosaby lwn. odds semasa)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+21.7% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Tidak (+19.7% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
BTTS Tidak — Nilai
EV +19.7% Model 45.5%
Bukan hasil yang dominan (kebarangkalian model adalah di bawah 50% pada kaki ini).
Menengah (nilai seimbang): Kurang 2.5 (EV +21.7%) — 51.8% Model
EV yang lebih rendah daripada primer, tetapi dengan kebarangkalian model yang lebih tinggi (lebih "stabil" apabila ditunjukkan).
Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Nilai terbaik (+EV)
Lebih 2.5 48.2% · Kurang 2.5 51.8%
EV Selesai -24.3% · EV Di Bawah +21.7%
Condong nilai: Kurang 2.5
1X2 Nilai lemah
Nosaby · Kebarangkalian model 35.6%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 32.7%
EV garisan konsensus: -6.6%
Cerapan skor tepat Kecua / hiburan
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.6%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
  • Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
  • EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
  • Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
  • Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Selesai -24.3% · EV Di Bawah +21.7% (9 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -18.2% · EV No +19.7%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran

  1. Ramalan Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
  5. CLV Dinilai
Kemasukan
2.2
Penutup
Belum selesai
CLV
Belum selesai

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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        "market_prob_pct": 40.0,
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        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
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        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Nosaby",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 33.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
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          "summary": "The model and market both lean Nosaby, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and \u00d6sterlen remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.3,
        "hero_label": "\u00d6sterlen",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on \u00d6sterlen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "The market shows a modest preference for \u00d6sterlen relative to the current fair estimate.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on \u00d6sterlen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices \u00d6sterlen above the current fair estimate.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 5.3,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
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        "outcome_separation": {
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            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
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            "edge_pp": -5.3,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "\u00d6sterlen",
            "market_prob_pct": 40.0,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.2,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 26.45,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 2.09,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Nosaby",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.55,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for \u00d6sterlen relative to the current fair estimate.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers \u00d6sterlen (33.5%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nosaby, Market \u2192 \u00d6sterlen, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
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        "current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
        "entry_implied_pct": 44.15,
        "entry_odds": 2.27,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "pending"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "7/10",
        "current_odds": 2.15,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.15,
        "pick_team": "\u00d6sterlen",
        "steam_score": 21,
        "steam_team_name": "\u00d6sterlen",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 12616,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12616.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Nosaby",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1510957,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 12619,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12619.webp",
      "home_team_name": "\u00d6sterlen",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 597,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/597.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - S\u00f6dra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4362,
            "best_odd": 2.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0089,
            "ev": -0.07,
            "implied_prob": 0.3355,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.3444
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2855,
            "best_odd": 3.425,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0092,
            "ev": -0.0625,
            "implied_prob": 0.2645,
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.2737
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4144,
            "best_odd": 2.265,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0218,
            "ev": -0.1435,
            "implied_prob": 0.4,
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.3781
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.63,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0817,
          "edge_yes": -0.0817,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1966,
          "ev_yes": -0.1825,
          "implied_no": 0.3733,
          "implied_yes": 0.6267,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.6,
          "best_under_odd": 2.35,
          "edge_over": -0.1075,
          "edge_under": 0.1075,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2288,
          "ev_under": 0.2173,
          "implied_over": 0.5895,
          "implied_under": 0.4105,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2968,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.02
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0089,
          "ev": -0.07,
          "implied_prob": 0.3355,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Nosaby"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0817,
          "ev": 0.1966,
          "implied_prob": 0.3733,
          "model_prob": 0.455,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1075,
          "ev": 0.2173,
          "implied_prob": 0.4105,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1510957,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3559,
        "draw": 0.2968,
        "home": 0.3473
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2173,
        "implied_prob": 0.4105,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2173,
          "implied_prob": 0.4105,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "under",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Nosaby",
        "home": "\u00d6sterlen"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.089453,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1966,
        "implied_prob": 0.3733,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.455,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1510957,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:56:20.893069+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
  • Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
  • Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
  • Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

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